Platts : Analysis of U.S. EIA Data: U.S. gasoline, distillate stocks climb 4.83 million barrels on week

U.S. gasoline, distillate stocks climb 4.83 million barrels on week
Platts Oil Futures Editor Geoffrey Craig
New York - December 31, 2014

U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks rose a combined 4.83 million barrels the week ended December 26, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed Wednesday.

Analysts surveyed by Platts had expected the refined product stocks to increase 2.25 million barrels.

Gasoline inventory rose 2.95 million barrels to 229.05 million barrels, despite implied gasoline demand* reaching 9.61 million barrels per day (b/d), the highest since July 2010.

Analysts forecast gasoline stocks would increase 1.17 million barrels the week ended December 26.

U.S. Midwest (USMW) gasoline stocks built 2.57 million barrels to 50.98 million barrels, which represents a 0.6% surplus relative to the EIA five-year average (2009-13).

On the U.S. Atlantic Coast, home to the New York Harbor-delivered New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) RBOB contract, gasoline stocks grew 535,000 barrels to 57.653 million barrels, which is 3.7% above the five-year average.

USAC gasoline stocks have risen 8.2 million barrels since the week ended November 21. During that time, the region's gasoline imports more than doubled, reaching 821,000 b/d the week ended December 26.

U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) gasoline stocks were up 411,00 barrels. At 80.26 million barrels, USGC inventory stands 6.10% above the five-year average.

Distillate stocks rose 1.87 million barrels, versus expectations of a 1.08 million-barrel increase.
Domestic distillate production increased 71,000 b/d to 5.307 million b/d, helping stocks build.

USAC combined low- and ultra-low-sulfur diesel (ULSD) stocks were up 1.32 million barrels to 27.7 million barrels, while USMW combined stocks rose 2.22 million barrels to 28.6 million barrels.

USGC combined low and ULSD stocks declined 2.41 million barrels, helping offset the weekly build.

At 36 million barrels, the USGC inventory stands 1.2% below the five-year average. A week prior, the region was at a 9.7% surplus.

U.S. CRUDE OIL STOCKS DRAW

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks fell 1.75 million barrels to 385.46 million barrels, compared with expectations for a draw of 1.25 million barrels.

Crude oil stocks historically decline toward the end of the calendar year as companies try to minimize inventories for tax-reporting purposes.

Imports dropped 1.23 million b/d to 7.06 million b/d. In 2014, crude oil imports averaged 7.41 million b/d.

Canadian imports fell 467,000 b/d to 2.72 million b/d. Imports from Mexico were down 184,000 b/d to 928,000 b/d. Imports from Saudi Arabia declined 30,000 b/d to 775,000 b/d. And Venezuelan imports decreased 145,000 b/d to 694,000 b/d.

Crude oil runs rose 36,000 b/d to 16.38 million b/d, which was 130,000 b/d more than the same reporting period one year ago.

The total refinery utilization rate increased 0.9 percentage point to 94.4% of operable capacity, while analysts had expected the refinery rate to be unchanged.

On the USGC, which accounts for more than half of all of U.S. refiners' operable crude oil distillation capacity, crude oil stocks rose 436,000 barrels.

The counter-seasonal build came despite USGC crude oil runs inching higher to 8.68 million b/d. The region's refineries operated at 94.9% of operable capacity, which was 0.6 percentage point higher than the same reporting period a year earlier.

One factor behind the accumulation could be crude oil shipped by pipeline from the USMW to the USGC at a faster rate than USGC refineries can handle.

The biggest draw occurred on the U.S. West Coast, where stocks fell 1.6 million barrels to 48.179 million barrels. The main driver was subcategory "U.S. Crude Oil Stocks in Transit (on Ships) from Alaska," which saw a decline of 1.71 million barrels.

Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma -- the delivery point for the NYMEX crude oil futures contract -- rose 2 million barrels to 39.8 million.

It was the first week over 30 million barrels in Cushing since the week ended March 7.

*Implied demand is the amount of product that moves through the U.S. distribution system, not actual end consumption.

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