OPENING CALL

Global markets kicked off Monday on a calmer note, with modest moves in stock futures and indexes in Europe but a slate of central-bank decisions and Federal Reserve speakers could inject some excitement later in the week.

Interest-rate decisions around the world will be front and center for investors this week, with central-bank officials due to meet in the U.K., Switzerland, Norway and Australia.

While few fireworks are expected at the Bank of England meeting, traders will have their eyes on Switzerland, which was an early mover in cutting rates.

Also in focus is commentary from Fed officials, as traders try to assess when interest-rate cuts might begin.

On Sunday, Neel Kashkari said it was reasonable to expect the central bank to wait until December to cut rates .

Overseas

In China, stock indexes ended lower, despite data showing that retail sales accelerated in the country in May. Elsewhere in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.8%.

Volatility in French markets subsided, as the CAC 40 edged up. The France-Germany 10-year bond yield spread remained elevated, but was down from Friday's intraday high.

Premarket Movers

Adobe was rising 0.4%. Shares rose 15% on Friday after the company's better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter earnings and boost to fiscal-year guidance.

Autodesk was up 3.3% after WSJ reported that Starboard Value has a roughly $500 million stake in the design-software maker and is pushing for changes.

Broadcom advanced 2.5% premarket, on pace to rise for a seventh session. Last week, Broadcom said it planned to execute a 10-for-1 stock split.

Watch For:

Canadian Housing Starts; Earnings from Lennar

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

- Big Jump in Insurance Costs Strikes Condos

- The Economy Is Increasingly Disjointed. That's Better News Than It Sounds.

- Investors Fear Long Stretch of Calm in Markets Can't Last

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

There is room for U.S. interest-rate expectations to adjust higher which should help strengthen the dollar, Brown Brothers Harriman said.

Markets continue to price in about 50 basis points of Fed interest-rate cuts by the end of 2024, even as the central bank forecasts only one rate cut this year, it said.

Neel Kashkari told CBS News on Sunday that it was a "reasonable prediction" that the Fed will wait until December to cut interest rates.

Pressure on the euro is likely to continue in the coming weeks as its near-term prospects will depend on the final outcome of the French election on July 7, UniCredit Research said.

If Macron maintains a majority, this will likely lift the euro, potentially above $1.09. However, the euro will extend its retreat, potentially to below $1.05, if there is a hung parliament--with no political group winning a majority--and especially if National Rally wins a majority, it said.

Energy:

Oil prices were broadly stable as traders digested mixed data from top consumer China.

According to a Reuters report, the latest data also showed that China boosted crude oil stockpiles in the first five months of the year, while oil imports declined--a bearish signal for the demand outlook.

Brent oil futures are now tracking between $80--$85/barrel and are likely to stick around that range during 2H 2024, with supplies from OPEC+ expected to offset any shifts in global oil-demand growth, Commonwealth Bank of Australia said.

Metals:

Base metals prices and gold futures fell as the dollar rose with investors weighing up the likelihood of fewer U.S. interest-rate cuts, given hawkish Fed commentary.

Saxo Bank said gold's shallow correction to date suggests investors are actively buying dips in prices, despite a pause in gold purchases from China's central bank.

"Support around $2,275 [is] still a major line in the sand, and one that continues to attract buy-on-dip activity," Saxo Bank said.

It reckons the long-term bullish outlook for gold hasn't changed and expects the PBOC to resume purchasing metal at some point.

Clear signs of improving copper demand will likely be needed for mining stocks to regain their luster, Jefferies said, adding there's been evidence of a slowdown in demand, with inventories on the Shanghai Exchange at the highest level since early 2020.

That is weighing on market sentiment, which had been extremely bullish and propelled copper futures to all-time highs.


TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES


Elon Musk and the SEC Are on a Collision Course Again

Regulators once accused Elon Musk of fraud over a possible buyout that never happened. Now they are positioned to make similar allegations over one that did.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has been investigating Musk's late disclosure of his purchases of Twitter stock before he took over the company. Excerpts of Musk's testimony provided to the SEC, which came to light last month through a separate lawsuit, suggest Musk and his adviser brushed off compliance with a rule that required him to reveal his ownership once it passed 5% of Twitter's shares.


DOJ Has a Second Chance to Prosecute Boeing Over 737 MAX. Will It Take Its Shot?

Glenn Leon sat at one end of a windowless Justice Department conference room two weeks ago prepared for an earful.

The relatives of people who had died in two crashes of Boeing 737 MAX planes crowded around a long table, pleading with the prosecutor over the course of six hours to take a harder line against the company, according to participants. "Don't let them get away with that murder!" one cried. "Do you want your kids, yourself, your grandkids to be killed on an airplane?" another asked.


Wells Fargo Bet on a Flashy Rent Credit Card. It Is Costing the Bank Dearly.

When Charlie Scharf took over as CEO of Wells Fargo, one of his priorities was to expand the bank's credit-card business. Now, a flashy partnership with a startup is complicating a high-profile part of that strategy.

In 2022, Wells launched a credit card with Bilt Technologies, a fintech startup with big-name backers including Blackstone and Mastercard. The co-branded card came with a rare perk: Users can pay for rent with it without incurring fees from their landlords while also earning rewards points. More than one million accounts were activated in the first 18 months, many by young adults.


French stocks have struggled since Macron called for election. Goldman Sachs says it can get worse.

A scenario where the far-right National Rally wins an absolute majority in French parliament could lead to further underperformance for French stocks after its worst week in two years, say strategists at Goldman Sachs.

The CAC 40 FR:PX1 last week fell over 6% after French President Emmanuel Macron called for a parliamentary election, though the index advanced on Monday. French stocks are now worth less than their U.K. counterparts, at $3.17 trillion versus $3.23 trillion, according to FactSet data through Friday.


Bitcoin Falls Below $66,000 as Bond Yields Weigh. Cryptos Are Lacking Catalysts.

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were mixed early on Monday. The crypto sector continues to react to muted prospects for interest-rate cuts this year.

Bitcoin was down 0.4% over the past 24 hours to $65,981. Bitcoin hit a record high near $74,000 in mid-March amid a surge of interest from new spot exchange-traded funds but its price has dropped since then.


Big Tech - not the Fed - is driving the stock-market rally. Here's what investors need to know.

Big Tech, not the Federal Reserve, is still acting as a driver of the record-setting rally across U.S. equities, offering hope to some investors that the stock market could shrug off concerns about the interest-rate outlook to sustain its upward momentum.

The tech-heavy S&P 500 index SPX and the Nasdaq Composite COMP ended Friday with robust weekly gains after scoring multiple record closing highs last week. The S&P 500 posted its best week in over month, while the Nasdaq logged its largest weekly advance since April 26, according to FactSet data.


Russia Sets Hearing as It Moves Toward Trial of Falsely Accused WSJ Reporter Evan Gershkovich

A Russian court said judicial proceedings in the case of Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Street Journal reporter held in Russia for over a year, would be held in secret, with the first hearing in a regional court beginning on June 26, the country's state media reported.

The 32-year-old journalist, a U.S. citizen who was accredited to work in Russia, was falsely accused of espionage in an indictment approved by prosecutors last week. Gershkovich was detained by Russia's Federal Security Service while on a reporting trip for the Journal in March last year.


Corporate Tax Rate Spurs Political Fight With More Than $1 Trillion at Stake

WASHINGTON-The 21% U.S. corporate tax rate is the biggest single variable in the sprawling 2025 tax debate, and the two parties are trying to turn that dial in opposite directions with major consequences for companies' profits and federal revenue.

The rate could climb as high as 28% if Democrats sweep November's elections and move as low as 15% if Republicans gain full power.


Israel to Pause Fighting Along Southern Route in Gaza to Ease Aid Blockage

Israel's military said it would pause fighting along a narrow strategic route in southern Gaza each day to facilitate the distribution of humanitarian aid, seeking to address security issues raised by aid groups and demonstrating Israel's growing hold over the territory.

The United Nations agency most involved with Gaza said it was hopeful the pauses would improve its ability to deliver aid throughout the enclave.


Write to ina.kreutz@wsj.com

TODAY IN CANADA

Earnings:

Nothing scheduled

Economic Indicators (ET):

0815 May Housing Starts

0830 Apr International transactions in securities

Stocks to Watch:

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

06-17-24 0630ET