Liberia : First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Liberia

LIBERIA

IMF Country Report No. 21/9

January 2021

FIRST AND SECOND REVIEWS UNDER THE EXTENDED CREDIT FACILITY ARRANGEMENT, REQUEST FOR WAIVERS OF NONOBSERVANCE OF PERFORMANCE CRITERIA AND MODIFICATION OF PERFORMANCE CRITERIA-PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; STAFF STATEMENT; AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR LIBERIA

In the context of the First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria, the following documents have been released and are included in this package:

• A Press Release including a statement by the Chair of the Executive Board.
• The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board's consideration on December 21, 2020, following discussions that ended on October 27, 2020, with the officials of Liberia on economic developments and policies underpinning the IMF arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on December 8, 2020.
• An Informational Annex prepared by the IMF staff.
• A Debt Sustainability Analysis prepared by the staffs of the IMF and the World Bank.
• A Staff Statement updating information on recent developments.
• A Statement by the Executive Director for Liberia.

The document listed below have been or will be separately released.

Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD) paper.

The IMF's transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities' policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents.

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PR20/386

IMF Executive Board Completes the First and Second Review under the Extended Credit Facility for Liberia, and Approves US$48.86 Million Disbursement

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

• The completion of the first and second reviews enables an immediate disbursement of US$48.86 million, of which US$38 million will fill the fiscal financing gap arising from the impact of COVID-19.
• Restoring macroeconomic stability, providing a foundation for sustainable inclusive growth, and addressing weaknesses in governance remain the main objectives of this program.
• Economic activity is projected to contract by about 3.0 percent in 2020, reflecting the effects and challenges from the COVID-19 disruptions, but signs of recovery are now emerging with growth projected to reach 3.2 percent in 2021.
• While the fiscal stance has been loosened to meet humanitarian needs, tight monetary policy, much improved public financial management, domestic revenue mobilization, and no central bank financing have helped achieve price and exchange rate stability, preserving the purchasing power of the poor.

WASHINGTON, DC - December 21, 2020: Today, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the first and second reviews under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The four-year ECF arrangement, with a total access of SDR155 million

(60 percent of quota or about US$214.30 million) was approved by the IMF Executive Board on December 11, 2019. Completion of the first and second reviews enables the immediate disbursement of SDR34 million (US$48.86 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangements to SDR51 million (about US$72.20 million).

After mixed program performance initially, the authorities have taken corrective actions to address weaknesses in the program and they continue to make progress in structural reforms. Reflecting the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, the growth forecast for 2020 has been revised down from 1.4 percent at the program's inception to -3.0 percent. Assuming global conditions gradually normalize, growth is projected to reach 3.2 percent in 2021, but downside risks to the outlook are high. Liberia remains fragile and vulnerable to shocks as both fiscal and external buffers remain low. Liberia continues to be assessed as having a sustainable debt burden, but borrowing space is limited.

Following the Executive Board discussion, Mr. Tao Zhang, Acting Chair and Deputy Managing Director, made the following statement:

"The COVID-19 pandemic continues to exert significant strain on Liberia's fragile economy. The authorities have taken the necessary steps to stabilize the economy amid multiple challenges. A modest fiscal loosening is appropriate to meet humanitarian needs during the COVID19 pandemic.

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"The authorities are committed to fiscal discipline and further improvements in cash management, transparency and accountability in spending, and domestic revenue mobilization to finance their development agenda. The monetary policy stance is appropriately aligned with the inflation objective, and significant progress has been made in strengthening central bank independence. In the context of the gradual de-dollarization of fiscal spending, it is important to further refine instruments for open market operations and enhance policy coordination between the central bank and the government.

"Further efforts are needed to contain the central bank's operational expenses and build up reserves. Rebuilding confidence in the financial sector is critical for financial stability. Priority should be given to addressing risks from weak financial institutions and ensuring the supply and quality of Liberian dollar banknotes. Further improvements in governance are necessary for efficient delivery of public services. Steps are being taken to clear the fiscal audits backlog, further enhance procurement transparency, and upgrade the anti-corruption legal framework. Efforts to increase borrowing space would support sustainable growth. The authorities should continue to work with donors and development partners to secure grants and concessional borrowing, and carefully prioritize the use of public resources."

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