NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. Corn Belt has experienced much more forgiving weather this month after an unusually dry June crashed both corn crop conditions and yield ideas.

The latest crop conditions suggest July’s heat-free and rainier weather may have brought average corn yields back to the table, though that scenario still faces headwinds with a dry and potentially warmer pattern expected through the end of the month.

As of Sunday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s statistics service (NASS) rated 57% of U.S. corn as good or excellent (GE), up from 55% a week ago and 51% two weeks ago. Three weeks ago, corn was just 50% GE, the week’s worst since 1988.

It has been more than 20 years since a fully emerged corn crop has improved its GE score by such a degree within a two-week period, emphasizing the atypical nature of this growing season. Although long ago, most years with similar gains around this time frame featured corn yields within a couple percent of trend, if not better.

In fairness, that set of years all had better ratings in this week versus the current 57% GE, and this metric has a more discernable correlation with corn yield outcomes. However, 55% this week in 2005 preceded an average yield, and 58% GE in 1989 and 2019 turned up yields a couple of points below trend.

This means 2023 conditions are no longer in distinctly dangerous company, though there is plenty of growing season left and the forecast contains enough uncertainty to warrant a watchful eye.

Keep in mind that the concept of “trend yield” is subjective and often varies by analyst. USDA’s 2023 corn trend of 181.5 bushels per acre, which some considered too high, was reduced to 177.5 last week after the dry June. The analysis in this column is based off a pre-season, unadjusted trend of 178.9.

U.S. soybean conditions have also made some rare moves. Beans were rated 55% GE as of Sunday, up from 51% the week before. That is the biggest one-week jump in soy conditions for any week since 2001.

Soybean conditions at this point in the season have a poor quantitative correlation with specific yield outcomes, but like corn, beans are no longer considered in strictly bad company based on conditions, as there are a handful of similarly rated years with near-trend yields. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

(Reporting by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)