Genscape : Africa Supply Report Reflected the Angolan Government’s 2018 Budget Ahead of its Release

Following the 2016 Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cut, Angola agreed to cut 78kbpd by 2017 to remain compliant with the OPEC policy. However, throughout 2017, Angolan production was between 24kbpd and 34kbpd (depending on the data source) lower than its 'quota.' This raised the question - could Angola even produce more if there were no quota in place?

The Angolan government recently confirmed these doubts. In its 2018 budget, presented to Parliament on December 15, the Angolan government outlined a bleak production scenario in which production declines ~36 percent from 2017 to 2023. While the expected 2018 decline is not very large, Angola is bracing for a daunting downturn thereafter. With that said, the budget outlined some shimmers of hope for mitigating such steep declines. Several growth projects on the horizon, if approved, could have a significant impact on Angolan crude production. These projects include Zinia Phase 2 (a final investment decision appears imminent), Dalia phase 3 & 4, CLOV phases, Block 15 work, Negage, Kuito, Chissonga, PAJ, and ACCE. Together, these could account for up to ~550kbpd of incremental production by 2023.

Recently, Genscape launched Africa as the first region of its Global Crude Oil Supply Report. The African Report outlines current and potential production from 26 countries, covers nearly 600 producing streams broken out by oil, condensate, NGLs, and other liquids, and provides forecasts through 2022 by both month and year.

Genscape's Angolan forecast, included in the Africa Report released five days before the Angolan government budget was presented to Parliament, differs from the government's forecast by just 2.3 percent in 2018 and by only 0.9 percent in 2019. Below is Genscape's field-based history and expectation for Angola from 2010 through 2019. Genscape clients receive the full forecast through 2022 and can compare Genscape's forecast to the government budget, as well as understand Genscape's research on whether Angola could produce more if OPEC removed the 2016 quotas or certain projects are approved.

Genscape updates the report each month, and clients receive monthly and annual forecasts through 2022. Any changes in field level production are directly incorporated into the entire forecast.

For conflict countries like Libya, Nigeria, and South Sudan, Genscape employs satellite imagery, waterborne cargo data, and flare signature intelligence to gain invaluable, near-real time insight into production levels. For an example of such work, please read our latest blogs about Libya:

Genscape's African Crude Oil Supply Report provides the most valuable, comprehensive window available into the current state of African oil supply. Using Genscape's proprietary monitoring, Government and publicly available data, and imagery, the report combines an academic forecast and data science to provide a unique view of the rapidly changing oil-producing continent, with details for 26 countries and a specific focus on the conflict states of Libya, Nigeria, and Sudan/South Sudan. Click here to learn more about the African Crude Oil Supply Report.

Follow Devin Geoghegan on Twitter at @GlobalOilSD.