Economic outlook slightly more negative

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the state and the course of the Dutch economy and is based on 13 key macro-economic indicators. Together, these provide a coherent macro-economic picture based on CBS figures which are being published over the past month or quarter. It does not necessarily represent the situation at the level of of individual households, businesses or regions.

2013	January	-0.92
2013	February	-1.03
2013	March	-1.12
2013	April	-1.18
2013	May	-1.25
2013	June	-1.27
2013	July	-1.27
2013	August	-1.27
2013	September	-1.21
2013	October	-1.14
2013	November	-1.06
2013	December	-0.98
2014	January	-0.91
2014	February	-0.86
2014	March	-0.83
2014	April	-0.82
2014	May	-0.8
2014	June	-0.79
2014	July	-0.78
2014	August	-0.77
2014	September	-0.76
2014	October	-0.74
2014	November	-0.72
2014	December	-0.68
2015	January	-0.64
2015	February	-0.58
2015	March	-0.53
2015	April	-0.48
2015	May	-0.42
2015	June	-0.37
2015	July	-0.33
2015	August	-0.29
2015	September	-0.26
2015	October	-0.25
2015	November	-0.23
2015	December	-0.22
2016	January	-0.22
2016	February	-0.2
2016	March	-0.19
2016	April	-0.17
2016	May	-0.13
2016	June	-0.11
2016	July	-0.08
2016	August	-0.02
2016	September	0.02
2016	October	0.06
2016	November	0.11
2016	December	0.16
2017	January	0.2
2017	February	0.26
2017	March	0.31
2017	April	0.35
2017	May	0.42
2017	June	0.45
2017	July	0.48
2017	August	0.55
2017	September	0.59
2017	October	0.63
2017	November	0.69
2017	December	0.74
2018	January	0.78
2018	February	0.84
2018	March	0.88
2018	April	0.89
2018	May	0.93
2018	June	0.94
2018	July	0.95
2018	August	0.96
2018	September	0.96
2018	October	0.93
2018	November	0.93
2018	December	0.91
2019	January	0.85
2019	February	0.83
2019	March	0.79
2019	April	0.76
2019	May	0.74
2019	June	0.71
2019	July	0.74
2019	August	0.71
2019	September	0.67
2019	October	0.65
2019	November	0.63
2019	December	0.63
2020	January	0.64
2020	February	0.64
2020	March	0.62
2020	April	0.59
2020	May	-0.51
2020	June	-1.49
2020	July	-1.9
2020	August	-1.81
2020	September	-1.39
2020	October	-0.95
2020	November	-0.63
2020	December	-0.43
2021	January	-0.54

Consumers and producers less pessimistic

In December, consumer and producer confidence were less negative than in November. However, both producer and consumer confidence are positioned below their long-term averages.

2016	January	11	3.2
2016	February	7	3.1
2016	March	2	3.9
2016	April	6	4.7
2016	May	7	4.4
2016	June	11	5.4
2016	July	9	5.1
2016	August	9	1.2
2016	September	12	3.4
2016	October	17	4.3
2016	November	21	3.4
2016	December	21	4.7
2017	January	21	6
2017	February	22	7
2017	March	24	7.8
2017	April	26	8.3
2017	May	23	6.1
2017	June	23	7.2
2017	July	25	6.6
2017	August	26	5.4
2017	September	23	8.5
2017	October	23	8.2
2017	November	22	9.1
2017	December	25	8.9
2018	January	24	10.3
2018	February	23	10.9
2018	March	24	9.5
2018	April	25	8.2
2018	May	23	9.8
2018	June	23	7.7
2018	July	23	6.3
2018	August	21	5.9
2018	September	19	5.7
2018	October	15	5.9
2018	November	13	7.2
2018	December	9	7.5
2019	January	0	5.8
2019	February	-2	6.3
2019	March	-4	6.1
2019	April	-3	6.7
2019	May	-3	4.7
2019	June	0	3.3
2019	July	2	3.9
2019	August	0	3.9
2019	September	-2	3.3
2019	October	-1	3.6
2019	November	-2	2.8
2019	December	-2	2.9
2020	January	-3	2.5
2020	February	-2	3.7
2020	March	-2	0.2
2020	April	-22	-28.7
2020	May	-31	-25.1
2020	June	-27	-15.1
2020	July	-26	-8.7
2020	August	-29	-5.4
2020	September	-28	-4.8
2020	October	-30	-5.6
2020	November	-26	-3.8
2020	December	-20	-0.4

Exports up, household consumption and investments down

In November 2020, the total volume of goods exports was up by 2.0 percent year-on-year. Exports of chemical products, machinery and appliances increased in particular.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 5.8 percent down in October 2020 relative to the same month one year previously. The contraction is larger than in the previous month and is mainly due to lower investments in buildings, infrastructure, aircraft and machinery.

Consumers spent 6.5 percent less in October 2020 than in the same month one year previously. The decline is again somewhat larger than in September. Just as in the previous months, consumers spent mainly less on services.

Manufacturing output 2.5 percent down in November

In November 2020, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 2.5 percent down on November 2019. This is the smallest contraction after March 2020, when output was almost 2 percent lower than one year previously.

Fewer bankruptcies in December

The number of corporate bankruptcies, adjusted for court session days, has decreased. There were 40 fewer bankruptcies in December than in the previous month. In December 2020, the number of bankruptcies (on a monthly basis) reached its lowest level since February 1991.

House prices almost 9 percent higher in November

In November 2020, prices of owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 8.9 percent higher than in the same month one year previously.

Significant rise in number of hours worked

In Q3 2020, the number of hours worked, adjusted for seasonal effects, was 5 percent higher than in the second quarter. In Q2, the number of hours worked fell sharply by 5.7 percent. In total, employees and self-employed worked nearly 3.4 billion hours in the third quarter.

At the end of September, the number of unfilled vacancies had risen to 216 thousand, 16 thousand more than the previous quarter. At the end of 2019, there was still a record level of 286 thousand unfilled vacancies. Due to the coronavirus crisis, the number of vacancies fell by 86 thousand in the first half of the year, a decrease of 30 percent.

In November 2020, there were 378 thousand unemployed (ILO definition), equivalent to 4.0 percent of the labour force. From September through November, unemployment declined by an average of 16 thousand per month. Between March and August, unemployment rose by over 150 thousand. Subsequently, it fell by nearly 50 thousand up through November.

In Q3 2020, turnover at temporary employment agencies rose by 6.6 percent. Relative to one year previously, turnover was down by 11.1 percent.

2013	Quarter 1	100.1
2013	Quarter 2	99.9
2013	Quarter 3	100.5
2013	Quarter 4	101.1
2014	Quarter 1	101
2014	Quarter 2	101.6
2014	Quarter 3	101.9
2014	Quarter 4	102.8
2015	Quarter 1	103.4
2015	Quarter 2	103.7
2015	Quarter 3	104.1
2015	Quarter 4	104.1
2016	Quarter 1	105.1
2016	Quarter 2	105.3
2016	Quarter 3	106.5
2016	Quarter 4	107.4
2017	Quarter 1	107.9
2017	Quarter 2	108.9
2017	Quarter 3	109.7
2017	Quarter 4	110.5
2018	Quarter 1	111.1
2018	Quarter 2	111.7
2018	Quarter 3	112
2018	Quarter 4	112.4
2019	Quarter 1	113
2019	Quarter 2	113.4
2019	Quarter 3	113.8
2019	Quarter 4	114.3
2020	Quarter 1	112.6
2020	Quarter 2	103
2020	Quarter 3	110.9

GDP up by 7.8 percent in Q3 2020

According to the second estimate conducted by CBS, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.8 percent in Q3 2020 relative to the previous quarter. The increase was mainly due to consumption, investments and the trade balance. Relative to one year previously, GDP contracted by 2.5 percent.

On Tuesday 16 February 2021, CBS will publish the first estimate of GDP and employment over Q4 2020 and the year 2020.