EL STAT Hellenic Statistical Authority : Labour Force Survey (LFS), October 2020

HELLENIC REPUBLIC

HELLENIC STATISTICAL AUTHORITY

Piraeus, 15 January 2021

PRESS RELEASE

LABOUR FORCE SURVEY: October 2020

The Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) announces the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October 2020. It should be noted that in October, the labour market was affected by specific regulatory measures regarding the operation of businesses as well as by measures taken to protect public health and tackle the COVID-19 pandemic in certain regions of the Country. These measures affected, to a large extent, not only the normal functioning of the market, but also the data collection method of the survey.

It should be noted that due to the exceptional circumstances under which the collection of a part of the sample used for the compilation of the present survey took place and the resulting impact on the response rate as well as the extent to which the latter can be attributed to the above mentioned exceptional circumstances, ELSTAT is currently conducting methodological checks of compatibility of alternative data collection practices the results of which may be published as long as this is deemed necessary.

• The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in October 2020 was 16.7%. The same unemployment rate was recorded in October 2019. Also, the upward revised unemployment rate in September 2020 was 16.7%. The number of employed in October 2020 amounted to 3,925,372 persons. The number of unemployed amounted to 786,439 while the number of inactive amounted to 3,172,393. The corresponding figures for October 2015 to 2020 are presented in Table 1.
• The number of employed persons increased by 9,964 persons as compared with October 2019 (a 0.3% rate of increase) and by 6,336 persons compared with September 2020 (a 0.2% rate of increase). It should be noted that according to Eurostat guidelines concerning the Labour Force Survey, in the light of the COVID-19 pandemic, persons in lay-off are still considered employed if the duration of their contract suspension is less than 3 months or if they receive more than 50% of their salary.
• The number of unemployed persons increased by 446 persons as compared with October 2019 and by 287 persons compared with September 2020.
• The number of inactive persons, i.e., persons that neither work nor look for a job, decreased by 43,892 persons as compared with October 2019 (a 1.4% rate of decrease) and by 10,710 persons compared with September 2020 (a 0.3% rate of decrease). It should be noted that according to the definition of unemployed and inactive persons, if a person, who is not working, is not actively seeking work and is not currently available for work, is considered economically inactive and not unemployed.

Seasonal adjustment is a statistical technique that removes the seasonal component of a time series, making more visible the underlying trend in the change of a characteristic. Users should take into account the fact that the seasonal adjustment procedure requires data for many months in order to remove the seasonal component from a time series. As a result, several "observations" (that is, a sufficient number of monthly results) are necessary so that the time series reflects a significant change in the trend of employment and unemployment.

The monthly estimates for the number of employed, unemployed and unemployment rate can be subject to revisions in the following months caused by updates to the seasonally adjusted series whenever new monthly data are added, inclusion of the most recent quarterly Labour Force Survey (LFS) data and update of seasonal adjustment model with complete annual data.

Users should also take into account that the first estimates of the most recent monthly unemployment rates are likely to be revised as they are produced with the collected and processed at the time of the press release survey data, which do not coincide with the finally collected and processed sample of the survey. For that reason, monthly estimates are revised when the final quarterly estimates are known.

Information on methodological issues	Information for data provision:
Population, Employment and Cost of Living Statistics Division	Tel. [phone]
Section of Labour Statistics	e-mail:[e-mail]
Dimitris Vatikiotis
Tel: [phone]
E-mail :[e-mail]

Table 1: Employed, unemployed, economically non-active persons and unemployment rate,

October 2015 - 2020

October

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Employed	3,621,760	3,669,995	3,764,674	3,851,184	3,915,408	3,925,372
Unemployed	1,180,560	1,113,125	1,000,821	879,354	785,993	786,439
Inactive	3,271,856	3,251,390	3,236,535	3,232,345	3,216,285	3,172,393
Unemployment	24.6	23.3	21.0	18.6	16.7	16.7
Rate

Graph 1: Unemployment rate (%) by month, October 2004 - 2020

30
25										27.6
								26.0		26.0
										24.6
												23.3
20														21.0
								20.2						18.6
15																16.7 16.7
						13.9
10
	10.4 10.0	8.6			10.2
5		8.2	7.7
0
Jan-04	Jul-04Jan-05Jul-05Jan-06	Jul-06Jan-07	Jul-07Jan-08	Jul-08Jan-09	Jul-09Jan-10	Jul-10Jan-11	Jul-11	Jan-12	Jul-12Jan-13	Jul-13Jan-14	Jul-14Jan-15	Jul-15Jan-16	Jul-16Jan-17	Jul-17Jan-18	Jul-18Jan-19	Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20

The values of the curve refer to October of each year

Tables 2 and 3 illustrate the unemployment rate by gender and age group from October 2015 to 2020. Table 4 presents the evolution of unemployment rate during the last 15 months, by Decentralized Administration. The complete time series for employed, unemployed and inactive persons as well as the unemployment rate are available on ELSTAT's website.

Table 2: Unemployment rate (%) by gender, October 2015-2020

Gender			October
2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Males	21.2	19.5	17.2	14.7	13.8	13.5
Females	28.8	27.9	25.7	23.5	20.4	20.6
Total	24.6	23.3	21.0	18.6	16.7	16.7

2

Table 3: Unemployment rate (%) by age group1, October 2015-2020

Age Group			October
2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
15-24	51.2	44.4	42.2	40.3	34.4	35.0
25-34	31.5	29.8	26.1	24.1	22.5	24.6
35-44	22.6	20.1	19.3	16.6	14.8	14.5
45-54	19.5	19.1	16.9	15.3	13.5	12.6
55-64	16.4	20.1	17.7	13.5	13.4	12.2
65-74	10.6	16.8	12.7	11.8	9.4	11.4
Total	24.6	23.3	21.0	18.6	16.7	16.7

Table 4: Unemployment rate (%) for the period August 2019 - October 2020, by Decentralized

Administration2

	Decentralized	8th	9th	10th	11th	12th	1st	2nd	3d	4th	5th	6th	7th	8th	9th	10th
	Administration	2019		2019	2019	2019	2019	2020	2020	2020	2020	2020	2020	2020	2020	2020	2020
	Macedonia-Thrace	18.5		18.7	18.7	18.8	18.5	18.5	18.3	18.3	16.4	18.6	19.6	19.0	18.8	18.3	18.2
	Epirus-Western	20.0		19.3	19.5	19.8	19.6	20.3	20.2	15.3	15.8	17.5	18.3	18.4	21.6	22.1	22.2
	Macedonia
	Thessaly - Sterea Ellas	20.9		18.0	18.1	18.2	17.9	18.1	17.9	18.5	18.8	18.6	18.7	18.5	18.2	17.8	17.6
	Peloponnese, Western	16.9		17.1	16.9	16.4	16.1	15.4	15.1	14.6	14.6	19.2	19.2	18.7	18.7	18.0	17.9
	Greece & Ionian Islands
	Attica	16.2		15.9	15.7	15.6	15.4	14.8	14.4	14.1	13.8	13.7	13.8	14.4	13.9	13.7	13.4
	Aegean Islands	14.5		14.6	13.7	16.3	12.3	12.5	12.3	9.8	21.4	26.2	25.3	14.6	15.0	17.3	20.6
	Crete	11.8		12.2	12.0	12.0	12.3	13.2	13.5	13.5	22.6	21.3	20.2	19.2	19.9	19.2	19.3
	Greece, Total	16.9		16.9	16.7	16.6	16.5	16.4	15.5	15.7	16.2	16.8	17.9	16.7	16.8	16.7	16.7

1. Estimates of "rare" characteristics, that is estimates of characteristics that refer to 10,000 persons or less are accompanied by large sampling errors, as for example in the case of unemployment rate in the age group of 65 - 74 years old.
2. Decentralized Administrations are the lowest geographical areas for which the Labour Force Survey (LFS) publishes estimates. LFS results are not published at lower level (i.e. NUTS 2 or NUTS 3) because, due to small population and sample size, estimates in these areas have large sampling errors. It should be noted that the same problem of small populations and sample sizes exist also in certain Decentralized Administrations and as a result, estimates in these areas have large sampling errors.

3

The effect of seasonal adjustment on the estimates of Labour Force Survey

The characteristics surveyed by Labour Force Survey (number of employed, unemployed, etc.) have large seasonal variation. For example, in Greece, employment normally increases during summer months because of tourism (if there are no other countervailing factors).

Table 5 presents the change in monthly estimates of employed and unemployed persons due to seasonal adjustment for the period August 2019 - October 2020 while Graphs 2, 3 and 4 present the adjusted and unadjusted time series for employed persons, unemployed persons and the rate of unemployment for the same period.

Table 5: Change in monthly estimates of employed and unemployed persons due to seasonal adjustment

		Estimated		Change due					Estimated		Change due
		number of						number of
			to seasonal						to seasonal
		employed			Change		unemployed			Change
			adjustment				adjustment
		withoutseasonal		(%)			withoutseasonal		(%)
			(in				(in
		adjustment						adjustment (in
			thousands)						thousands)
		(in thousands)						thousands)
August 2019		3,956.6		-37.5		-0.9			780.9		17.0		2.2
September 2019	3,986.2	-73.7	-1.8		751.9	44.1	5.9
October 2019		3,928.9		-13.5		-0.3			763.6		22.4		2.9
November 2019	3,859.2	57.7	1.5		796.9	-15.8	-2.0
December 2019		3,864.2		48.0		1.2			774.8		-4.5		-0.6
January 2020	3,857.1	70.5	1.8		800.5	-29.3	-3.7
February 2020		3,779.2		120.5		3.2			771.6		-54.9		-7.1
March 2020	3,813.0	93.9	2.5		665.4	62.2	9.4
April 2020		3,839.3		22.8		0.6			730.3		15.2		2.1
May 2020	3,733.9	35.2	0.9		761.5	2.2	0.3
June 2020		3,815.2		-13.2		-0.3			805.4		23.6		2.9
July 2020	3,921.1	-86.0	-2.2		746.1	23.3	3.1
August 2020		3,847.7		26.4		0.7			733.3		51.2		7.0
September 2020	3,949.7	-30.7	-0.8		715.3	70.9	9.9
October 2020		3,969.6		-44.2		-1.1			743.3		43.1		5.8

Graph 2: Unemployment Rate (%) - Adjusted and Non-adjusted Estimates

18.5

18.0

17.5

17.0

WITHOUT

seasonal

16.5

adjustment

16.0

15.5

WITH

15.0

seasonal

adjustment

14.5

14.0

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

Apr-20

Aug-19

Sep-19

Oct-19

Dec-19

Feb-20

May-20

Jun-20

Jul-20

Aug-20

Sep-20

Oct-20

(in thousands)

4