(CercleFinance.com) - The Euro reacted little to the unpleasant surprise of the 'ZEW' barometer of economic sentiment for Germany: it fell in July for the first time in a year, settling at 41.8, 5.7 points below its June value.

The fact that German exports fell by more than expected in May, political uncertainty in France and the lack of clarity regarding the ECB's future monetary policy all contributed to this development", explains Achim Wambach, President of ZEW.

On the other hand, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany improved slightly, with the expected indicator rising by 4.9 points this month to -68.9.

The Euro is down just -0.1% against the Dollar at 1.0880.

The FOREX was calm (the $-Index grappled with +0.2% at 104.40): the most volatile parity was the $/Yen with +0.4% at 158.6... and this explains 2/3 of the greenback's rise.

US 'stats' were plentiful, but without any real impact: US retail sales: after rising by 0.3% in May compared with the previous month (a revised figure from the 0.1% increase initially announced), US retail sales remained flat at a sequential rate in June, according to the Commerce Department.... although they were expected to fall by -0.2%.

Excluding the automotive sector (vehicles and equipment), which can be volatile, US retail sales rose by 0.4% last month compared with the previous month, following a 0.1% increase in May.

Import prices in the USA stagnated in June, with the fall in oil prices (fuel prices were down 1% after having already fallen by 0.4% in May), offset by food prices, which rebounded by 0.7% after a 1.6% decline the previous month.

Excluding oil, prices of imported products rose by 0.2% in June, compared with a 0.3% decrease the previous month.
Over 12 months to the end of June, import prices rose by 1.6%, their biggest gain since December 2022 (+3.2%).

Finally, the Commerce Department announced a 0.5% rise in US business inventories in May, following a 0.3% increase in April (confirmed compared with the initial estimate).
U.S. business sales were flat on a sequential basis in May (taking 1.37 months to clear inventories, as in the previous month).

NB: gold's surge towards $2.460/Oz (+2%) has far outstripped the Dollar's decline (-0.6%) over the past 1 week... its rise is certainly the result of the general lowering of rates (in anticipation of a "gesture" from the FED), but also of probable purchases by central banks outside the "$ zone".

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