The day was marked by a sudden upsurge in volatility on the FOREX... but while all eyes were on the US CPI, it was the Yen that stood out, surging +2% against the $ between 2.30 and 3.05 p.m., to around 157.5.
The Yen also climbed +1.5% against the Euro, to 172.4.

The Yen's powerful takeoff was enough to push the $-Index (-0.6%) below 104.45.
The Euro recovered 0.4% to 1.0870, the Pound and Swiss Franc +0.5% to 1.2900 and 0.8950 respectively.

The Dollar is weakened by the -10 basis point fall in the 2034 T-Bond, a US CPI in line with the most optimistic expectations: it is easing towards 3.00% (as hoped) and speculation about 2 rate cuts (September and December) is growing.
US T-Bonds are easing by -10 basis points towards 4.178%, the 2-year by -13.5 basis points towards 4.496%, the 30-year by -8 basis points towards 4.3900%.
The curve thus remains inverted, but the spread between 'short' and 'long' has contracted from -5Pts to +10Pts.

According to the Labor Department, the US consumer price index rose by 3% in June over 1 year, an annual rate down 0.3 points on May, and slightly below Jefferies' expectations.

Excluding energy (+1%) and food (+2.2%), two traditionally volatile categories, the annual inflation rate came in at 3.3% last month, the lowest level since April 2021 and also below expectations (3.4%).

On a sequential basis, i.e. between May and June 2024, US consumer prices eased by 0.1% on a unadjusted basis, but rose symmetrically excluding energy and food.

The Labor Department reports a decline of -17.000 fewer people registered for unemployment benefits in the USA (to 222,000) in the week to July 1.

The four-week moving average - more representative of the underlying trend - came in at 233,500, down 5,250 on the previous week.

Finally, the number of people receiving regular benefits fell by 4,000 to 1,852,000 in the week to June 24, the most recent period available for this statistic.


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