NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 15 (Reuters) - Previously wet portions of the western U.S. Corn Belt finally observed some drier weather last week while other areas picked up some helpful rain, and forecasts suggest the Crop Watch corn and soybeans will likely avoid damaging heat for the rest of the month.
However, weather in western and northern areas could be on the drier side for the rest of July, making some of the producers slightly uncomfortable. Eastern areas have the best rain chances over the next week, but it may come too late for the Ohio corn.
Indiana is the only Crop Watch location of 11 total where corn and soybeans carry perfect scores, and that producer said the crops could go two to three weeks without rain and likely be OK.
Temperatures are more the concern in North Dakota, where the lack of heat has the producer worried that the corn will not reach maturity before the first frost.
CONDITIONS AND YIELD
Crop Watch producers are rating crop conditions and yield potential on 1-to-5 scales. The condition scores are a primarily visual assessment similar to the U.S. government’s where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent.
Yield potential is meant to capture both visible and non-visible elements. On this scale, 3 is around farm average yield, 4 is solidly above average and 5 is among the best crops ever.
The 11-field, unweighted corn condition score slid to 3.48 from 3.57 in the prior week as a large drop in Ohio and smaller one in Minnesota outweighed slight bumps in North Dakota and southeastern Illinois. Conditions would be unchanged on the week if Ohio is excluded.
Average corn yield rose to 3.36 from 3.34 last week with improvements in Nebraska and southeastern Illinois offsetting the small decline in Ohio. This remains the week’s lowest Crop Watch corn yield since at least 2021, and a handful of producers continue citing concerns with uneven growth.
The Fairfield County, Ohio, corn field has had an unfortunate run with weather, receiving a couple of scattered inches of rain over the last six-plus weeks, and temperatures have been relatively warm.
Both Ohio corn scores at 1.75 are the lowest among the 11 Crop Watch locations, and the producer has made the difficult choice to stop investing resources in the corn field. The rest of his corn crop might yield 2.25 at best on the scale, though much better corn could be found 25 miles away and this is not necessarily representative of the whole state.
The 11-field soybean condition rose to a four-week high of 3.84 from 3.75 last week as a slight reduction in western Iowa was more than offset by improvements in southeastern Illinois, eastern Iowa and Minnesota. The average score is lower than a year ago but identical to the same week in 2022.
Average soybean yield was unchanged on the week at 3.57 as improvements in Nebraska, eastern Iowa and southeastern Illinois perfectly balanced cuts in western Iowa and Minnesota. The diverging Minnesota bean scores reflect a crop that may not be visually consistent with the yield potential.
The Ohio bean field caught some rain last week and carries a yield score of 4, and the producer has mentioned the beans hanging on better than expected in the previous dry weeks.
The following are the states and counties of the 2024 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields: Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt, Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford, Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; Fairfield, Ohio. The North Dakota soybeans are in Griggs County and the corn is in Stutsman County. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. (Reporting by Karen Braun Editing by Matthew Lewis)
