The Opec+ decision surprised the financial world at the beginning of the week, with a reduction in black gold production of 1.66 million barrels per day. This obviously caused Brent crude oil to rise to 85.50 USD on Tuesday morning, compared to less than 80 dollars on Saturday. This voluntary reduction in production would be motivated by the desire to support the stability of the oil market.

The power of the Opec+ countries has fluctuated over time, but is currently on the upswing. This is mainly due to the weakness of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), which no longer have the historical safety blanket they used to have to prevent the cartel from playing on supply. To make matters worse, this increase in oil prices may impact the FED's monetary policy, further complicating its fight against inflation.

This Opec+ pricing strategy creates a fundamental risk for the future, as global oil demand is expected to rise by 2 million barrels per day this year, including about 1 million from China (average daily consumption in 2023 worldwide is estimated at 100.9 million barrels by the EIA). This tightening of the market will work in the short term for the cartel, and could lead to more volatility, as W. Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING.

The price of gold is down slightly on Tuesday, down 0.1% to USD 1,982.36 an ounce, in mid-day trading. CME's FedWatch tool tells us that investors think there is a 59% chance the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in May. This works against gold: as a reminder, it is a zero return asset. We see US gold futures stabilizing at USD 1,999.50.

Agricultural products: Ukrainian crop volume is up from last week, reaching 852,448 tons under the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The price of soybeans is also up.

(Soybean prices, source: Bloomberg)

Specialists explain that this is due to the support of oil prices but also to the forecast of 87.5 million acres of soybeans to be planted by farmers, higher than analysts' estimates.

China's largest cotton producer, Xinjiang Uygur, has begun spring planting for cotton production. Local agricultural authorities expect total production to remain stable at more than 5 million tons this year.

There is also a rise in prices for wheat as well as corn. Once again, it's the planting weather that will be the focus of attention as the weekly U.S. crop progress reports resume on Monday.