Democrats are moving closer to a new victory after the election of Joe Biden last November. While Raphaël Warnock has already been elected Senator, things are looking up for Jon Ossof, who is in the lead after 98% of the ballots were counted at the time of writing. This Democratic victory immediately affected the markets: US stock futures were mostly lower as traders fear that the Democrats could reverse the tax cuts introduced by the Trump administration and implement stricter regulation, especially on tech giants. However, Investors are also expecting a larger stimulus package under a Democratic-led Senate. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 1% for the first time since the beginning of the health crisis.

As a reminder, Republicans must win a seat to maintain their majority in the upper house. Democrats need both to take power. In scenario one, a countervailing power exists in the United States. In scenario two, the Democrats will be able to implement their program.

Another reason why today is crucial is that the U.S. Congress is meeting to certify the electorate's vote. Normally, this is a formality. But this time, the ceremony comes in a climate of defiance instilled by the outgoing president, who even called on Mike Pence to reject “fraudulently” designated voters. Constitutionalists believe Pence does not have the power that Trump claims he has, assuming there is any evidence to support the charges. The vice president will no doubt find himself in a rather uncomfortable position, especially since some Republican congressmen are planning to throw their last ounce of strength into the battle to try to invalidate the vote.

An easing of the political climate in the United States is important for financial markets, which do not appreciate uncertainty.

After the final manufacturing SMIs for December published on Monday, Wednesday will be devoted to services SMIs. In China, the Caixin Services PMI remains in an expansion zone but is down to 56.3 points after 58.1 points in November.

As expected, all European countries are suffering from a contraction, particularly Germany, which had to cope with new containment measures. Its PMI fell to 47 points, while Europe's PMI fell to 46.4 (the consensus forecast was for a contraction to 47.4). In the end, only France resisted as best it could, with its PMI for services coming out at 49.1.

American SMIs is also due today, as well as inflation in Germany, the ADP study on employment, durable goods orders, oil inventories and the minutes of the last Fed meeting.