Good day. President Biden is expected to decide as soon as this week whether to appoint Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell or governor Lael Brainard to a four-year term leading the central bank beginning next February. Because Ms. Brainard's views on inflation and interest rates have been similar this year to Mr. Powell's, policy continuity seems likely no matter who is chosen. Meanwhile, some regional Fed officials are working to recalibrate expectations of what the U.S. central bank might do when it comes to climate change issues.
Now on to today's news and analysis.
Top News
Biden Weighs Choice of Jerome Powell or Lael Brainard as Fed Chair
President Biden met Jerome Powell and Lael Brainard separately for interviews on Nov. 4, and he was joined in the Oval Office for those meetings with only one other adviser, National Economic Council Director Brian Deese, according to people familiar with the matter. Each meeting was scheduled for one hour, though Ms. Brainard's ran slightly over the allotted time, one of these people said. Some people familiar with the matter said Ms. Brainard's meeting went better than expected.
Regional Fed Leaders Flag Limits to Bank's Climate Change Role
Some Federal Reserve officials, like Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, don't appear to believe that the central bank has a starring role in helping deal with climate change issues.
U.S. Economy
Slow Return of Prime-Age Workers Threatens Recovery
Roughly 1.4 million fewer adults ages 25 to 54 are working or looking for a job than in the month before the pandemic hit, and their labor-force participation rate was 81.7% this October, down from 82.9% in February 2020.
Record Quitting Fuels Tight Job Market
The so-called quits rate -- a measurement of workers leaving jobs as a share of overall employment -- was 3% in September, a record high, Friday's Labor Department data showed, a sign of worker confidence in the job market.
As Workers Leave Jobs in Droves, a Closer Look at Who Is Quitting
High Inflation Pushes Biden to Focus Message on Rising Prices
Stubbornly high inflation is putting the Democratic Party's legislative agenda and political fortunes at risk, pressuring the White House and prompting it to stress its efforts to fight rising costs.
What Does Inflation Mean for Businesses? For Some, Bigger Profits
Inflation Surge Whips Up Market Froth
Inflation Surge Pushes Gold to Five-Month High
Democrats Try to Heal Rifts, Pass $2 Trillion Spending Bill
House Democrats return this week with the goal of passing a roughly $2 trillion social spending and climate package, amid intraparty friction some lawmakers say is the worst they have seen in their time in Congress.
Centrist Democrats Await Cost Analysis on $2 Trillion Bill
Key Developments Around the World
Japan Economy Shrinks, Hit by Supply-Chain Troubles
Japan's economy shrank in the July-September period owing to a fall in exports caused by supply-chain constraints and lower consumer spending during a Covid-19 state of emergency.
China's Social Mobility Has Stalled
China's extraordinary economic rise planted a belief in the country that just about anyone can succeed if they work hard -- a key component of Xi Jinping's "China Dream." For more and more Chinese, however, that is no longer true.
Governments Agree to Stronger Emissions Pledges, Questions Loom
More than 190 nations reached a deal at the UN summit that aims to accelerate greenhouse-gas-emissions cuts across the world, but leaves big questions over how they will follow through in the coming decade.
COP26 Opens Path to International Carbon Trading
Financial Regulation Roundup
Bitcoin Creator Satoshi Nakamoto Could Be Unmasked at Florida Trial
In a trial in Florida, the family of a deceased man is suing his former business partner over control of their partnership's assets, a cache of about one million bitcoins, equivalent to around $64 billion today, belonging to bitcoin's creator.
Beijing Stock Exchange Launches With Some Big First-Day Gains
The Beijing Stock Exchange opened for trading Monday, marking the debut of a venue that China hopes will channel funds into innovative smaller companies, as it tightens its grip on companies seeking listings overseas.
Forward Guidance
Monday (all times ET)
10:45 a.m.: European Central Bank's de Guindos gives speech at Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt
Tuesday
Time N/A: National Bank of Hungary releases policy statement
8:30 a.m.: U.S. Commerce Department releases October retail sales
9:15 a.m.: Federal Reserve releases October U.S. industrial production
11:10 a.m.: European Central Bank's Lagarde speaks in on-stage interview
12 p.m.: Atlanta Fed's Bostic, Kansas City Fed's George, Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari and Richmond Fed's Barkin speak at virtual event on racism and the economy hosted by regional Fed banks; Bank of Canada's Schembri speaks on labor market and monetary policy to Canadian Association for Business Economics
2:55 p.m.: Philadelphia Fed's Harker speaks at fintech conference held by his bank
8:20 p.m.: European Central Bank's Lagarde gives video message on women in fundamental science at Friends of IHES event
Commentary
On Inflation Surge, the Fed is Running Out of Excuses
Inflation hasn't turned out to be temporary and has accelerated, and it is high even when measured against pre-pandemic prices, so this isn't merely catch-up for the deflation of last spring, James Mackintosh writes. It is no longer merely about a narrow set of Covid-disrupted supply chains, he says. The Fed can still say that inflation will be transitory--not as temporary as hoped, but that it will go away on its own. Investors still buy the story, but the risk is rising that the Fed has to act much more aggressively.
Inflation Expectations Could Be a Freudian Slip for the Fed
Whether an inflationary spiral is coming or not, central banks would be unwise to read too much into expectations, which will keep grinding up if inflation stays elevated, rather than focus on job-market reports, Jon Sindreu writes.
Labor Market Has No Slack in Sight
Until Covid-19 is under control, and people are no longer fretful about going into work, it is hard to make assumptions about whether or not the job market has permanently tightened, Justin Lahart writes.
China's Coal Addiction Runs Deeper Than Economics
Prodding China into faster action against coal seems likely to remain a geopolitical question as much as an environmental and economic one, frustrating those hoping for more decisive moves against the fuel, Nathaniel Taplin writes.
Basis Points
U.S. consumer sentiment decreased in early November to the lowest level in a decade as high inflation weighed on Americans' moods and despite easing virus-related concerns. The preliminary estimate of the index of consumer sentiment released Friday by the University of Michigan from 71.7 in October to 66.8, below the 72.5 forecast from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. (Dow Jones Newswires)
The eurozone's trade surplus slipped by more than expected in September as growth in imports continued to exceed that of exports, data from the European Union's statistics agency showed Monday.
Chinese factory activity and consumer spending were surprisingly robust in October, official monthly figures showed Monday, though fresh signs of weakness in the property sector underscored concerns for the outlook of the world's second-largest economy.
India's consumer prices increased on year in October at a slightly faster pace compared with September due to higher food prices, according to preliminary government data showing the consumer price index up 4.48% in October from a year earlier following a 4.35% rise in September. The inflation rate is in line with the Reserve Bank of India's target of 2% to 6%. (DJN)
Rapidly increasing prices in Brazil, caused partly by shipping problems boosting the cost of inputs, are hitting the country's coffee producers, according to coffee exporters group Cecafe. It said on Friday that coffee exports fell more than 23% in October from a year earlier because of logistics bottlenecks affecting most of the world. (DJN)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-15-21 0933ET
