Projected Income Statement: Petrobras

Forecast Balance Sheet: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 265,778 224,510 227,799 304,800 319,931 284,877 268,332 246,144
Change - -15.53% 1.46% 33.8% 4.96% -10.96% -5.81% -8.27%
Announcement Date 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 3/6/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 34,134 49,656 62,297 85,442 103,071 93,585 96,329 94,509
Change - 45.47% 25.46% 37.15% 20.63% -9.2% 2.93% -1.89%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 168,992 205,754 159,925 136,180 87,257 118,200 105,399 100,373
Change - 21.75% -22.27% -14.85% -35.92% 35.46% -10.83% -4.77%
Announcement Date 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 3/6/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 51.82% 53.1% 51.18% 50.19% 49.07% 53.19% 52.29% 52.64%
EBIT Margin (%) 37.89% 42.46% 38.21% 36.54% 32.09% 38.1% 34.8% 34.12%
EBT Margin (%) 33.48% 42.88% 34.56% 12.19% 30.04% 36.41% 30.86% 30.69%
Net margin (%) 23.56% 29.37% 24.3% 8.23% 22.01% 24.62% 21.11% 20.8%
FCF margin (%) 37.33% 32.09% 31.36% 25.8% 18.53% 20.62% 19.45% 18.98%
FCF / Net Income (%) 158.43% 109.25% 129.05% 313.25% 84.17% 83.77% 92.11% 91.26%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.88% 19.32% 12.29% 9.72% 8.97% 10.85% 9.02% 8.64%
ROE 30.66% 50.23% 33.54% 28.14% 29.04% 28.63% 20.17% 17.83%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.13x 0.66x 0.87x 1.15x 1.38x 0.93x 0.95x 0.88x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.57x 1.09x 1.42x 2.24x 3.67x 2.41x 2.55x 2.45x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.54% 7.74% 12.22% 16.18% 21.89% 16.33% 17.77% 17.87%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 14.55% 14.58% 23.87% 32.24% 44.6% 30.7% 33.99% 33.95%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 20.2% 24.13% 38.95% 62.74% 118.12% 79.18% 91.39% 94.16%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 15.57 19.58 16.56 15.82 14.77 16.9 15.63 15.9
Change - 25.74% -15.41% -4.5% -6.65% 14.47% -7.54% 1.74%
Dividend per Share 1 8.534 15.09 5.569 5.734 3.199 3.565 5.375 5.533
Change - 76.82% -63.09% 2.96% -44.21% 11.41% 50.78% 2.95%
Book Value Per Share 1 29.69 27.8 29.4 28.4 30.96 36.58 43.7 48.09
Change - -6.39% 5.77% -3.41% 9.01% 18.16% 19.48% 10.05%
EPS 1 8.18 14.44 9.57 2.84 8.026 11.77 9.164 8.87
Change - 76.53% -33.73% -70.32% 182.59% 46.65% -22.13% -3.21%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 13,044,201 13,044,201 13,015,466 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733
Announcement Date 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 3/6/26 - - -
1BRL
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 3.54x 4.55x
PBR 1.14x 0.95x
EV / Sales 1.5x 1.55x
Yield 8.56% 12.9%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
13
Last Close Price
41.66BRL
Average target price
55.98BRL
Spread / Average Target
+34.38%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise