Projected Income Statement: China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 248,040 363,852 443,920 434,720 525,477 435,736 481,249 -
Change - 46.69% 22.01% -2.07% 20.88% -17.08% 10.45% -
Announcement Date 4/15/22 4/17/23 4/18/24 4/15/25 4/17/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 28,321 23,466 31,503 11,389 21,467 24,281 19,059 8,885
Change - -17.14% 34.25% -63.85% 88.49% 13.11% -21.51% -53.38%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 - -19,637 -20,473 4,385 - - - -
Change - - -4.26% 121.42% - - - -
Announcement Date 4/15/22 4/17/23 4/18/24 4/15/25 4/17/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 5.71% 4.6% 4.49% 4.12% 3.72% 5.36% 5.29% 4.33%
EBIT Margin (%) 5.32% 4.22% 4.11% 3.68% 3.31% 3.16% 3.32% 3.7%
EBT Margin (%) 5.33% 4.32% 4.1% 3.66% 3.37% 3.6% 3.41% 3.46%
Net margin (%) 2.72% 2.48% 2.4% 2.11% 1.88% 1.87% 1.83% 1.93%
FCF margin (%) - -0.96% -0.9% 0.2% - - - -
FCF / Net Income (%) - -38.54% -37.73% 9.49% - - - -

Profitability

        
ROA 2.24% 2.02% 1.75% 1.36% 1.16% 1.13% 1.17% 1.25%
ROE 15.93% 13.94% 13.36% 10.37% 8.15% 8.79% 8.34% 7.33%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.3x 3.85x 4.37x 4.82x 6.78x 3.83x 4.09x -
Debt / Free cash flow - -18.53x -21.68x 99.14x - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 1.5% 1.14% 1.39% 0.52% 1.03% 1.14% 0.86% 0.42%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 26.23% 24.8% 30.99% 12.63% 27.71% 21.34% 16.19% 9.62%
CAPEX / FCF (%) - -119.5% -153.88% 259.72% - - - -

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.3424 0.0913 0.2631 0.3791 0.497 0.72 0.798 0.955
Change - -73.34% 188.17% 44.09% 31.1% 44.88% 10.83% 19.67%
Dividend per Share 1 0.25 0.2527 0.2714 0.2715 0.2718 0.2852 0.3015 -
Change - 1.08% 7.42% 0.02% 0.11% 4.94% 5.72% -
Book Value Per Share 1 7.96 8.926 9.983 10.89 11.68 12.59 13.39 13.9
Change - 12.14% 11.84% 9.09% 7.24% 7.8% 6.38% 3.79%
EPS 1 1.25 1.23 1.31 1.11 0.94 1.02 1.063 1
Change - -1.6% 6.5% -15.27% -15.32% 8.54% 4.19% -5.88%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 41,948,168 41,934,433 41,919,514 41,610,322 41,320,390 41,320,390 41,320,390 41,320,390
Announcement Date 4/15/22 4/17/23 4/18/24 4/15/25 4/17/26 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 4.43x 4.25x
PBR 0.36x 0.34x
EV / Sales 0.29x 0.3x
Yield 6.31% 6.67%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BBB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
9
Last Close Price
4.520CNY
Average target price
6.239CNY
Spread / Average Target
+38.03%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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