Projected Income Statement: China State Construction International Holdings Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: China State Construction International Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 48,618 - 51,689 56,825 61,959 56,771 59,716 66,303
Change - - - 9.94% 9.03% -8.37% 5.19% 11.03%
Announcement Date 3/25/22 3/21/23 3/21/24 3/21/25 3/26/26 - - -
1HKD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: China State Construction International Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 686.4 362.9 709.2 1,066 1,110 771.3 752.1 742.2
Change - -47.14% 95.44% 50.34% 4.14% -30.54% -2.49% -1.31%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -1,238 -150.7 -208.2 941.3 - 6,387 5,958 8,660
Change - 87.82% -38.11% 552.12% - - -6.71% 45.34%
Announcement Date 3/25/22 3/21/23 3/21/24 3/21/25 3/26/26 - - -
1HKD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: China State Construction International Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.11% 12.03% 12.81% 13.88% 14.15% 14.25% 14.11% 14.4%
EBIT Margin (%) 12.55% 11.36% 12.06% 13.05% 13.27% 13.26% 13.17% 12.98%
EBT Margin (%) 12.14% 10.57% 10.64% 11.24% 11.91% 11.85% 11.9% 11.6%
Net margin (%) 8.8% 7.8% 8.06% 8.13% 8.55% 8.6% 8.64% 8.43%
FCF margin (%) -1.6% -0.15% -0.18% 0.82% - 5.36% 4.66% 6.73%
FCF / Net Income (%) -18.2% -1.89% -2.27% 10.06% - 62.27% 53.93% 79.84%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.58% 3.55% 3.83% 3.59% 3.16% 3.19% 3.18% 3.04%
ROE 12% 12.26% 13.35% 12.87% 11.79% 12.18% 12.05% 10.74%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 4.8x - 3.55x 3.56x 3.85x 3.34x 3.31x 3.58x
Debt / Free cash flow -39.27x - -248.28x 60.37x - 8.89x 10.02x 7.66x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 0.89% 0.36% 0.62% 0.93% 0.98% 0.65% 0.59% 0.58%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 6.77% 2.96% 4.87% 6.67% 6.9% 4.54% 4.17% 4.01%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -55.45% -240.71% -340.64% 113.27% - 12.08% 12.62% 8.57%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 -0.1093 0.4208 0.0995 0.3985 - 0.8822 0.6367 0.696
Change - 485% -76.35% 300.5% - - -27.82% 9.31%
Dividend per Share 1 0.405 0.48 0.56 0.615 0.625 0.7247 0.7278 0.781
Change - 18.52% 16.67% 9.82% 1.63% 15.95% 0.43% 7.32%
Book Value Per Share 1 11.2 11.47 14.74 15.17 17.23 16.7 18.1 19.59
Change - 2.42% 28.49% 2.92% 13.6% -3.1% 8.38% 8.27%
EPS 1 1.349 1.58 1.82 1.86 1.858 1.925 2.092 2.064
Change - 17.09% 15.19% 2.2% -0.12% 3.61% 8.67% -1.32%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 5,037,617 5,037,617 5,037,617 5,037,617 5,282,217 5,282,217 5,282,217 5,282,217
Announcement Date 3/25/22 3/21/23 3/21/24 3/21/25 3/26/26 - - -
1HKD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 3.62x 3.33x
PBR 0.42x 0.39x
EV / Sales 0.79x 0.75x
Yield 10.4% 10.4%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
9
Last Close Price
6.970HKD
Average target price
11.55HKD
Spread / Average Target
+65.73%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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  5. Financials China State Construction International Holdings Limited