The end of the US budget impasse is now pretty much acted. After more than 40 days of stalemate, the shutdown is expected to conclude on Wednesday. The bipartisan compromise struck in the Senate is making its way through the House of Representatives - a mere formality - before landing on Donald Trump's desk for signature. Legally, the process should be wrapped up by Wednesday, 13 November, marking the end of a 43-day standoff-the longest of the eleven shutdowns in US history. Around 1.6 million federal employees are set to return to work.

This resolution has sparked a marked rebound on Wall Street, ever ready to turn any flicker of good news into a full-blown fireworks display. The Nasdaq 100 climbed 2.2% at the close, recouping roughly half of its recent losses. The end of the federal gridlock removes one of the risk factors that had been weighing on the US economy - and by extension, on financial markets. Earlier in the day, Europe had already priced in the happy ending, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index gaining 1.8%, fueled by cyclical and financial stocks.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both slipped in premarket trading, weighed down by renewed worries that artificial intelligence may be producing more hype than profit.

AI-linked equities led the charge, notably Nvidia (+5.8%), Micron (+6.5%) and Palantir (+8.8%). Not because the sector is particularly sensitive to government shutdowns (in truth, it couldn't care less), but because these stocks act as magnets for investors who are completely hooked. The recent consolidation in tech shares has provided a more affordable entry point than a month ago. 

However this morning, tech stocks are showing signs of fatigue. Nvidia fell after SoftBank decided it had made quite enough money from its stake, cashing out to the tune of nearly $6 billion. CoreWeave, another AI name, tumbled after trimming its revenue forecasts.

Elsewhere, the mood was mixed. Rocket Lab soared on record sales, while Paramount Skydance promised more streaming investment (and fewer costs, a combination that sounds ambitious). Earnings overall are growing at a healthy clip, though perhaps not enough to justify the sector's lofty valuations.

As the shutdown comes to an end, the next question is how swiftly the backlog of delayed US economic data will be released. Investors dislike operating in a fog of uncertainty. Past experience suggests some key figures could be published fairly quickly. A Deutsche Bank economist cited by Bloomberg noted that in a previous episode in 2013, the monthly jobs report was issued just three days after the shutdown ended.

Elsewhere, Donald Trump sounded an optimistic note regarding imminent trade deals with Switzerland and India. On a different front, US-China relations remain predictably tense. Despite recent agreements, both sides are busy undermining each other behind the scenes. Washington is cutting off chip supplies to Beijing, while China is reportedly crafting a plan to prevent the US military from accessing rare-earth magnets. In Japan, the honeymoon between the archipelago and its new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has been short-lived. Already under fire for the generous fiscal package she is preparing to unveil, the leader came under diplomatic pressure last week after suggesting that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could prompt a military response from Tokyo.

In the Asia-Pacific region, where the end of the US budget deadlock had already been celebrated yesterday, markets mostly posted modest declines. Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, Indian and Taiwan all fell by less than 0.3%, mainland China by 0.8%. South Korea, buoyed by its tech-heavy index, managed a 0.8% gain after having rebounded by 3% the day before. European markets remain bullish.

Today's economic highlights:

Today's agenda: in the United Kingdom, unemployment claims and the 3-month ILO unemployment rate; in Germany, the ZEW survey on the current situation and expectations; in the eurozone, the ZEW survey on expectations. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,365
  • Gold: $4,144
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $66.64 (WTI) $60.69
  • United States 10 years: 4.07%
  • BITCOIN: $104,460

In corporate news:

  • Parker-Hannifin will acquire Filtration Group for $9.25 billion to boost its aftermarket business, targeting recurring revenue from filtration products.
  • Volato will debut its new product Parslee at the Microsoft Ignite conference.
  • United Airlines is seeking dismissal of a lawsuit over labeling windowless seats as "window seats," arguing the term only refers to seat location.
  • Accenture, Apptio, and PPL have partnered to enhance visibility into technology spending.
  • BlackRock is leading a $500 million investment in Avalara, with Vista Equity remaining the majority shareholder.
  • A study by Zebra Technologies found that 87% of retailers believe generative AI will significantly impact loss prevention.
  • Oklo received U.S. Department of Energy approval for the safety design of its Aurora nuclear fuel facility.
  • The FDA approved Promega's diagnostic system as a companion test for Merck's Keytruda-Lenvima combo in endometrial cancer treatment.
  • Target is cutting prices on 3,000 products for the holidays to attract budget-conscious shoppers.
  • Meta's chief AI scientist Yann LeCun is reportedly leaving to start a new AI venture.
  • Microsoft plans to invest $10 billion in an AI data hub in Portugal, partnering with NVIDIA and others.
  • Nebius signed a $3 billion deal to supply AI infrastructure to Meta, after a 355% surge in quarterly revenue.
  • A German court ruled OpenAI violated copyright laws by using protected song lyrics to train ChatGPT, setting a potential European precedent.
  • Paramount Skydance shares rose after it announced $1.5 billion in streaming investments and further cost cuts post-merger.
  • Marriott International is accelerating the growth of its branded residences in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
  • Hesai secured exclusive lidar supply contracts for Li Auto's next-gen assisted driving platform.
  • Honeywell and TotalEnergies launched an AI-assisted control room pilot to advance industrial autonomy.
  • AMD is expected to unveil its AI chip strategy and showcase its partnership with OpenAI at its analyst day.
  • Google announced $30 million in funding for AI learning projects and is investing around $6 billion in new data centers in Germany.
  • Berkshire Hathaway announced that Warren Buffett will step down as CEO by the end of 2025, naming Greg Abel as his successor.
  • Boeing received FAA approval to proceed with phase 3 of the 777X certification flight tests.
  • Apple postponed the launch of the iPhone Air 2 due to weak sales and reduced production.
  • Beyond Meat reported weaker-than-expected quarterly sales and widened losses.
  • Consolidated Water posted Q3 revenue and net income growth driven by its services segment.
  • Mereo BioPharma narrowed its Q3 net loss and confirmed it has cash reserves through 2027.
  • Bally's reported Q3 revenue growth fueled by the addition of Queen properties and the Intralot acquisition.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Cintas Corporation: Rothschild & Co Redburn upgrades to neutral from sell with a price target raised from USD 177 to USD 184.
  • Coreweave, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 135 to USD 110.
  • Duolingo, Inc.: Sealand Securities downgrades to add from buy.
  • Qorvo, Inc.: Mizuho Securities upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from USD 75 to USD 93.
  • Robinhood Markets, Inc.: President Capital Management Corp upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 162 to USD 179.
  • Skyworks Solutions, Inc.: Mizuho Securities upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from USD 65 to USD 73.
  • The Mosaic Company: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 37 to USD 26.
  • Aercap Holdings N.v.: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and raises the target price from USD 120 to USD 150.
  • Ast Spacemobile, Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 59 to USD 81.
  • Bellring Brands, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 58 to USD 43.
  • Ciena Corporation: Evercore ISI maintains its in-line recommendation and raises the target price from USD 120 to USD 200.
  • Expedia Group, Inc.: Citi maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 206 to USD 281.
  • Instacart (Maplebear): Citi maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 65 to USD 50.
  • Lyft, Inc.: Daiwa Securities maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 16 to USD 23.
  • Micron Technology, Inc.: Arete Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 230 to USD 280.
  • Monday.com Ltd.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 258 to USD 202.
  • Owens Corning: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 157 to USD 113.
  • Qualcomm, Inc.: Daiwa Securities maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 160 to USD 195.
  • Rocket Lab Corporation: Roth Capital Partners maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 60 to USD 75.
  • Roivant Sciences Ltd.: Leerink Partners maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 22 to USD 29.
  • Sandisk Corporation: Arete Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 102 to USD 314.
  • Seagate Technology Holdings Plc: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 270 to USD 340.
  • Tempus Ai, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 105 to USD 80.
  • U-Haul Holding Company: Thompson Research Group maintains its not rated recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 123 to USD 98.