Yves Sanquer

Currencies: SNB: 2, rest of the world: zero

For the second time since the start of the year, the Swiss National Bank has lowered its key interest rates. It has to be said that the situation in Switzerland is very different from that in Europe.

June 24, 2024 at 10:20 am

Rates: Big moves

The Fed isn't the only thing in the life of a stock market investor. From time to time, it's a good idea to look outside the box, to take the temperature of the world.

June 24, 2024 at 10:12 am

Currencies: It's a swingin' good time!

Welcome, thrill-seekers. Between central bank meetings and political turmoil in Europe, currency traders have plenty to speculate about the future of both the dollar and the euro. Let's jump in.

June 17, 2024 at 10:42 am

Interest rates: The double effect returns

Between the Fed meeting on the one hand and the French situation on the other, a lot is happening in the world of rates. These two events have a strong impact on the bond market, which is always on the lookout for good or bad news.

June 17, 2024 at 10:26 am

Currency: The Euro isn't penalized by rate cuts, but by European elections

While the European Central Bank has lowered its main key rates, the euro will have to wait for the outcome of the European Parliament elections to take its toll.

June 10, 2024 at 09:52 am

Rates: Christine draws faster than Jerome

Unsurprisingly, the European Central Bank cut its key rates by 25 basis points, joining the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Canada. For its part, the Fed is likely to take its time, even if it is keen to be accommodating ahead of the forthcoming US elections.

June 10, 2024 at 09:46 am

Currencies: New opportunity for the euro against Nordic currencies

Let's put aside the endless and recurring questions about the timing of the first rate cuts to focus on a technical situation which we find interesting. The euro is back on technical support against several currencies, including the NOK and SEK. Here's a quick update.

June 03, 2024 at 11:19 am

Rates: Which rate cut?

While the timing of the first rate cut is still a matter of debate within the financial community, rates traders have long since revised their plans in the light of macroeconomic data and the sometimes shaky rhetoric of the major central banks.

June 03, 2024 at 11:15 am

Currencies: How much? Just a pound!

After looking at some particularly weak currencies (JPY and CHF), it was time to take a look at the other side of the fence. Among European currencies, sterling is doing particularly well, even against the euro. But it's against the Canadian dollar that the configuration is most interesting.

May 27, 2024 at 08:57 am

Interest rates: A goldilocks scenario that never lasts forever

Since October 2022, stock markets have embarked on a narrow path that leaves little room for doubt. Four pillars explain the current movement: inflation on a downward slope, a return to accommodative monetary policy, and a soft landing for the US economy aided by productivity gains generated by the IDA.

May 27, 2024 at 08:56 am

Currencies: Back to the future

Two weeks ago, the focus of this weekly currency newsletter was on the BoJ's supposed intervention in the foreign exchange market to push down the yen. A look back at this episode and the central bank's weak alternatives.

May 20, 2024 at 09:41 am

Rates: Viva America

America is still on top of the stock market world, thanks to economic indicators that are neither too hot nor too cold.

May 20, 2024 at 09:39 am

Currencies : Can the Australian dollar continue his bullish path?

The Australian dollar has soared, particularly against the major commodity currencies, even if the RBA has not adopted the hawkish stance that some traders were hoping for. Nonetheless, the Australian currency is now facing serious resistance, which will have to be overcome if it is to continue its recent rally.

May 13, 2024 at 10:35 am

Interest rates: Has the risk of recession been definitively averted?

In 2022, all the media and the majority of economists were predicting the imminent onset of recession in the US, due to a particularly rapid cycle of monetary tightening. Nearly two years later, with equity markets at all-time highs, have we escaped the worst?

May 13, 2024 at 10:29 am

Currencies: Sellers are relentless on the CHF

With the Swiss National Bank's interest-rate cut, the Swiss currency is performing poorly. It even has the luxury of trailing the Japanese yen in terms of negative relative performance against the dollar, the euro, sterling, the Canadian dollar and Russia. And that's just the beginning!

April 29, 2024 at 09:46 am

Rates: To infinity and beyond

Thanks Buzz. The breach of the 4.60% mark on the US 10-year yield puts paid to our long-term scenario of an intermediate recovery before a new downward salvo. It's time to update all this and take recent developments into account.

April 29, 2024 at 05:58 am

Currencies: It'll be alright, it'll be alright...

Did you say "revolution"? Not at all. The dollar is still taking advantage of the postponement of the first rate cuts to reign supreme, whether against European or Asian currencies. The revolution will have to wait a little longer.

April 23, 2024 at 05:10 am

Interest rates: Want more?

Bond yields are approaching critical levels, which it would be wise not to overshoot if you want to keep the equity markets on track. In the meantime, if you want to know when the Fed will cut rates, take a look at the US 2-year.

April 23, 2024 at 05:08 am

Currencies: The euro pays the price

At last Thursday's ECB meeting, Christine Lagarde clearly raised the scenario of a possible interest rate cut as early as June, at the risk of weighing on the performance of the European currency.

April 15, 2024 at 10:07 am

Rate: What a difference a week makes

The canary isn't dead yet, but he's already in respiratory distress. Doctor Benton, do we intubate or wait?

April 15, 2024 at 05:54 am

Rates: A lethal lack of harmony?

Last week, central bankers, especially in the US, made a series of outbursts that somewhat blurred their rhetoric and sowed doubts in the minds of investors. The high level of inflation now seems (less) compatible with an immediate cut in interest rates, even if this remains the general trajectory. To put it plainly, there's no guarantee of a first rate cut in June.

April 08, 2024 at 05:02 am