Projected Income Statement: Southwest Airlines Co.

Forecast Balance Sheet: Southwest Airlines Co.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -4,777 -4,204 -3,467 -2,026 1,670 4,112 4,505 4,980
Change - 11.99% 17.53% 41.56% 182.43% 146.23% 9.56% 10.54%
Announcement Date 1/27/22 1/26/23 1/25/24 1/30/25 1/28/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Southwest Airlines Co.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 505 3,924 3,520 2,054 2,673 3,382 3,587 3,511
Change - 677.03% -10.3% -41.65% 30.14% 26.51% 6.09% -2.13%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 1,817 -134 -356 -1,592 -831 40.83 1,357 862
Change - -107.37% -165.67% -347.19% 47.8% 104.91% 3,223.19% -36.48%
Announcement Date 1/27/22 1/26/23 1/25/24 1/30/25 1/28/26 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Southwest Airlines Co.

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) -0.06% 10.38% 9.28% 7.69% 7.48% 11.43% 13.83% 14.21%
EBIT Margin (%) -8.11% 4.7% 3.45% 1.66% 1.92% 6.51% 8.52% 9.26%
EBT Margin (%) 8.39% 3.06% 2.59% 2.18% 2.01% 6.17% 8.85% 8.99%
Net margin (%) 6.19% 2.26% 1.91% 1.69% 1.57% 4.55% 7.08% 6.95%
FCF margin (%) 11.51% -0.56% -1.36% -5.79% -2.96% 0.12% 3.97% 2.44%
FCF / Net Income (%) 185.98% -24.86% -71.49% -342.37% -188.44% 2.72% 56.07% 35.08%

Profitability

        
ROA -3.58% 2.02% 2.74% 1.32% 1.63% 5.65% 9.07% 7.92%
ROE -13.18% 6.85% 9.29% 4.46% 5.59% 21.64% 29.79% 24.55%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - 0.8x 1.09x 0.95x 0.99x
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - -2.01x 100.7x 3.32x 5.78x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 3.2% 16.48% 13.49% 7.47% 9.52% 10.26% 10.49% 9.93%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) -5,611.11% 158.8% 145.33% 97.16% 127.35% 89.72% 75.87% 69.84%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 27.79% -2,928.36% -988.76% -129.02% -321.66% 8,281.35% 264.37% 407.32%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 3.813 5.903 4.944 0.7185 3.301 6.542 8.728 9.438
Change - 54.83% -16.26% -85.47% 359.44% 98.17% 33.41% 8.14%
Dividend per Share 1 - - 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.7211 0.754 0.7575
Change - - - 0% 0% 0.15% 4.56% 0.46%
Book Value Per Share 1 17.59 18.02 17.67 17.44 14.78 15.87 19.04 25.23
Change - 2.45% -1.94% -1.29% -15.28% 7.41% 19.97% 32.47%
EPS 1 1.61 0.87 0.81 0.76 0.79 3.148 5.004 5.336
Change - -45.96% -6.9% -6.17% 3.95% 298.45% 58.97% 6.64%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 591,920 593,752 596,115 599,737 517,155 489,208 489,208 489,208
Announcement Date 1/27/22 1/26/23 1/25/24 1/30/25 1/28/26 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 12x 7.53x
PBR 2.37x 1.98x
EV / Sales 0.68x 0.67x
Yield 1.91% 2%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
25
Last Close Price
37.68USD
Average target price
51.31USD
Spread / Average Target
+36.17%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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  4. Financials Southwest Airlines Co.