Projected Income Statement: Saga plc

Forecast Balance Sheet: Saga plc

Fiscal Period: January 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Net Debt 1 729 712 637 591 500 406 330 244
Change - -2.33% -10.53% -7.22% -15.4% -18.72% -18.72% -26.06%
Announcement Date 3/23/22 4/4/23 4/17/24 4/9/25 4/15/26 - - -
1GBP in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Saga plc

Fiscal Period: January 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
CAPEX 1 12.5 20.8 26.7 20.1 16.1 23.73 24.27 24.82
Change - 66.4% 28.37% -24.72% -19.9% 47.41% 2.25% 2.27%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 34 -34.7 57 93.1 100.9 68.51 82.9 97.86
Change - -202.06% 264.27% 63.33% 8.38% -32.1% 20.99% 18.05%
Announcement Date 3/23/22 4/4/23 4/17/24 4/9/25 4/15/26 - - -
1GBP in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Saga plc

Fiscal Period: January 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.29% 16.62% 15.72% 17.85% 21.41% 21.41% 21.69% 21.72%
EBIT Margin (%) 3.15% 7.47% 10.52% 9.7% 16.87% 16.45% 16.92% 17.16%
EBT Margin (%) -6.23% -43.74% -17.41% -18.37% 0.63% 7.97% 10.51% 11.58%
Net margin (%) -7.42% -44.61% -15.25% -21.47% 0.5% 8.24% 10.49% 11.53%
FCF margin (%) 9.01% -5.97% 7.69% 12.12% 14.11% 9.78% 11.16% 12.45%
FCF / Net Income (%) -121.43% 13.39% -50.44% -56.46% 2,802.78% 118.73% 106.34% 107.97%

Profitability

        
ROA - - - -9.5% 0.25% 4.16% 6.53% 7.04%
ROE -2.32% -50.7% 14.24% -117.28% 5.65% 54.31% 49.75% 35.75%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 11.18x 7.37x 5.47x 4.31x 3.26x 2.71x 2.05x 1.43x
Debt / Free cash flow 21.44x -20.51x 11.18x 6.34x 4.95x 5.92x 3.98x 2.5x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 3.31% 3.58% 3.6% 2.62% 2.25% 3.39% 3.27% 3.16%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 19.17% 21.53% 22.92% 14.66% 10.52% 15.83% 15.06% 14.54%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 36.76% -59.94% 46.84% 21.59% 15.96% 34.64% 29.27% 25.36%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.00609 0.1656 0.7639 0.991 1.078 0.3319 0.7711 0.8537
Change - 2,619.21% 361.29% 29.73% 8.77% -69.21% 132.34% 10.72%
Dividend per Share 1 - - - - - - 0.1 0.1333
Change - - - - - - - 33.33%
Book Value Per Share 1 4.652 2.633 1.599 0.411 0.4895 0.8928 1.419 2.043
Change - -43.41% -39.27% -74.3% 19.1% 82.39% 58.98% 43.95%
EPS 1 -0.201 -1.858 -0.808 -1.174 0.024 0.3985 0.5398 0.6269
Change - -824.38% 56.51% -45.3% 102.04% 1,560.46% 35.45% 16.14%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 140,329 140,329 141,789 142,562 143,955 145,690 145,690 145,690
Announcement Date 3/23/22 4/4/23 4/17/24 4/9/25 4/15/26 - - -
1GBP
Estimates
2027 *2028 *
P/E 15.3x 11.3x
PBR 6.81x 4.28x
EV / Sales 1.84x 1.64x
Yield - 1.64%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
4
Last Close Price
6.080GBP
Average target price
9.088GBP
Spread / Average Target
+49.47%

Annual profits - Rate of surprise

-40%: Exceptional extension
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