Projected Income Statement: Petrobras

Forecast Balance Sheet: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 265,778 224,510 227,799 304,800 319,931 284,796 262,593 248,887
Change - -15.53% 1.46% 33.8% 4.96% -10.98% -7.8% -5.22%
Announcement Date 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 3/6/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 34,134 49,656 62,297 85,442 103,071 92,558 95,312 93,570
Change - 45.47% 25.46% 37.15% 20.63% -10.2% 2.98% -1.83%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 168,992 205,754 159,925 136,180 87,257 123,432 106,644 101,955
Change - 21.75% -22.27% -14.85% -35.92% 41.46% -13.6% -4.4%
Announcement Date 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 3/6/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 51.82% 53.1% 51.18% 50.19% 49.07% 52.84% 52.29% 52.66%
EBIT Margin (%) 37.89% 42.46% 38.21% 36.54% 32.09% 38.28% 34.69% 33.95%
EBT Margin (%) 33.48% 42.88% 34.56% 12.19% 30.04% 35.48% 30.47% 30.55%
Net margin (%) 23.56% 29.37% 24.3% 8.23% 22.01% 24.02% 21.02% 20.59%
FCF margin (%) 37.33% 32.09% 31.36% 25.8% 18.53% 21.8% 19.74% 19.38%
FCF / Net Income (%) 158.43% 109.25% 129.05% 313.25% 84.17% 90.74% 93.9% 94.1%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.88% 19.32% 12.29% 9.72% 8.97% 11.02% 8.85% 8.64%
ROE 30.66% 50.23% 33.54% 28.14% 29.04% 28.84% 19.95% 17.77%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.13x 0.66x 0.87x 1.15x 1.38x 0.95x 0.93x 0.9x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.57x 1.09x 1.42x 2.24x 3.67x 2.31x 2.46x 2.44x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.54% 7.74% 12.22% 16.18% 21.89% 16.34% 17.64% 17.79%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 14.55% 14.58% 23.87% 32.24% 44.6% 30.93% 33.74% 33.77%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 20.2% 24.13% 38.95% 62.74% 118.12% 74.99% 89.37% 91.78%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 15.57 19.58 16.56 15.82 14.77 16.22 15.52 16.25
Change - 25.74% -15.41% -4.5% -6.65% 9.83% -4.32% 4.71%
Dividend per Share 1 8.534 15.09 5.569 5.734 3.199 4.777 5.893 6.191
Change - 76.82% -63.09% 2.96% -44.21% 49.32% 23.35% 5.06%
Book Value Per Share 1 29.69 27.8 29.4 28.4 30.96 38.98 43.24 47.14
Change - -6.39% 5.77% -3.41% 9.01% 25.92% 10.93% 9.01%
EPS 1 8.18 14.44 9.57 2.84 8.026 12.44 9.08 8.757
Change - 76.53% -33.73% -70.32% 182.59% 54.96% -26.99% -3.56%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 13,044,201 13,044,201 13,015,466 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733
Announcement Date 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 3/6/26 - - -
1BRL
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 3.46x 4.74x
PBR 1.1x 1x
EV / Sales 1.56x 1.59x
Yield 11.1% 13.7%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
13
Last Close Price
43.42BRL
Average target price
55.31BRL
Spread / Average Target
+27.38%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise