Projected Income Statement: Petrobras

Forecast Balance Sheet: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 265,778 224,510 227,799 304,800 319,931 284,796 262,593 248,887
Change - -15.53% 1.46% 33.8% 4.96% -10.98% -7.8% -5.22%
Announcement Date 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 3/6/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 34,134 49,656 62,297 85,442 103,071 92,558 95,312 93,570
Change - 45.47% 25.46% 37.15% 20.63% -10.2% 2.98% -1.83%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 168,992 205,754 159,925 136,180 87,257 123,432 106,644 101,955
Change - 21.75% -22.27% -14.85% -35.92% 41.46% -13.6% -4.4%
Announcement Date 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 3/6/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 51.82% 53.1% 51.18% 50.19% 49.07% 52.84% 52.29% 52.66%
EBIT Margin (%) 37.89% 42.46% 38.21% 36.54% 32.09% 38.28% 34.69% 33.95%
EBT Margin (%) 33.48% 42.88% 34.56% 12.19% 30.04% 35.48% 30.47% 30.55%
Net margin (%) 23.56% 29.37% 24.3% 8.23% 22.01% 24.02% 21.02% 20.59%
FCF margin (%) 37.33% 32.09% 31.36% 25.8% 18.53% 21.8% 19.74% 19.38%
FCF / Net Income (%) 158.43% 109.25% 129.05% 313.25% 84.17% 90.74% 93.9% 94.1%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.88% 19.32% 12.29% 9.72% 8.97% 11.02% 8.85% 8.64%
ROE 30.66% 50.23% 33.54% 28.14% 29.04% 28.84% 19.95% 17.77%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.13x 0.66x 0.87x 1.15x 1.38x 0.95x 0.93x 0.9x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.57x 1.09x 1.42x 2.24x 3.67x 2.31x 2.46x 2.44x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.54% 7.74% 12.22% 16.18% 21.89% 16.34% 17.64% 17.79%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 14.55% 14.58% 23.87% 32.24% 44.6% 30.93% 33.74% 33.77%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 20.2% 24.13% 38.95% 62.74% 118.12% 74.99% 89.37% 91.78%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 15.57 19.58 16.56 15.82 14.77 16.22 15.52 16.25
Change - 25.74% -15.41% -4.5% -6.65% 9.83% -4.32% 4.71%
Dividend per Share 1 8.534 15.09 5.569 5.734 3.199 4.777 5.893 6.191
Change - 76.82% -63.09% 2.96% -44.21% 49.32% 23.35% 5.06%
Book Value Per Share 1 29.69 27.8 29.4 28.4 30.96 38.98 43.24 47.14
Change - -6.39% 5.77% -3.41% 9.01% 25.92% 10.93% 9.01%
EPS 1 8.18 14.44 9.57 2.84 8.026 12.44 9.08 8.757
Change - 76.53% -33.73% -70.32% 182.59% 54.96% -26.99% -3.56%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 13,044,201 13,044,201 13,015,466 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733 12,888,733
Announcement Date 2/24/22 3/2/23 3/8/24 2/26/25 3/6/26 - - -
1BRL
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 3.42x 4.68x
PBR 1.09x 0.98x
EV / Sales 1.54x 1.58x
Yield 11.2% 13.9%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BBB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
13
Last Close Price
42.50BRL
Average target price
55.31BRL
Spread / Average Target
+30.14%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise