Projected Income Statement: ORIX Corporation

Forecast Balance Sheet: ORIX Corporation

Fiscal Period: March 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Net Debt 1 3,911,858 4,486,659 5,015,164 4,960,815 5,086,895 5,755,094 5,979,496 6,167,239
Change - 14.69% 11.78% -1.08% 2.54% 13.14% 3.9% 3.14%
Announcement Date 5/11/22 5/10/23 5/8/24 5/12/25 5/11/26 - - -
1JPY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: ORIX Corporation

Fiscal Period: March 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
CAPEX 1 753,953 917,296 1,080,074 1,200,874 1,357,672 1,332,435
Change - 21.66% 17.75% 11.18% 13.06% -1.86%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 986,142 656,290 492,300 660,310 931,100 998,868
Change - -33.45% -24.99% 34.13% 41.01% 7.28%
Announcement Date 6/29/21 6/29/22 6/26/23 6/27/24 6/24/25 6/22/26
1JPY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: ORIX Corporation

Fiscal Period: March 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 25.09% 25.03% 25.76% 25.44% 25.85% 11.59% 14.19% 14%
EBIT Margin (%) 11.99% 11.78% 12.82% 11.54% 13.7% 11.62% 13.74% 14.16%
EBT Margin (%) 20.03% 13.77% 16.7% 16.71% 20.76% 36.34% 20.33% 20.26%
Net margin (%) 12.38% 10.24% 12.3% 12.23% 13.43% 26.22% 14.14% 14.2%
FCF margin (%) 24.84% - 19.33% 16.14% 17% - - -
FCF / Net Income (%) 200.61% - 157.17% 131.92% 126.63% - - -

Profitability

        
ROA 3.63% 2.49% 2.98% 2.9% 3.97% 5.09% 2.97% 2.96%
ROE 9.9% 8.3% 9.2% 8.8% 10.4% 19.82% 10.19% 10.81%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 6.19x 6.72x 6.92x 6.78x 5.91x 14.25x 11.85x 11.5x
Debt / Free cash flow 6.25x - 9.22x 10.69x 8.98x - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 36.4% 40.51% 24.85% 29.09% 24.11% - - -
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 145.04% 161.83% 96.47% 114.35% 93.28% - - -
CAPEX / FCF (%) 146.49% - 128.56% 180.29% 141.81% - - -

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 533.9 530.8 612.7 657.5 762.7 - - -
Change - -0.58% 15.44% 7.3% 16.01% - - -
Dividend per Share 1 85.6 85.6 98.6 120 156.1 196.9 195.7 209.1
Change - 0% 15.19% 21.71% 30.07% 26.15% -0.61% 6.82%
Book Value Per Share 1 2,733 2,868 3,423 3,599 4,080 4,587 4,778 5,026
Change - 4.95% 19.34% 5.15% 13.36% 12.42% 4.17% 5.2%
EPS 1 259.4 231.4 298.6 307.7 400.3 817.9 480.1 533
Change - -10.8% 29.05% 3.08% 30.07% 104.35% -41.3% 11%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,165,774 1,146,829 1,151,412 1,136,168 1,059,384 1,095,268 1,095,268 1,095,268
Announcement Date 5/11/22 5/10/23 5/8/24 5/12/25 5/11/26 - - -
1JPY
Estimates
2027 *2028 *
P/E 7.76x 13.2x
PBR 1.38x 1.33x
EV / Sales 3.65x 3.64x
Yield 3.1% 3.08%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
9
Last Close Price
6,351.00JPY
Average target price
6,678.89JPY
Spread / Average Target
+5.16%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise