Projected Income Statement: Metcash Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Metcash Limited

Fiscal Period: April 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Net Debt 1 189 1,399 1,314 1,806 1,834 1,880 1,903 1,883
Change - 640.21% -6.08% 37.44% 1.55% 2.52% 1.22% -1.05%
Announcement Date 6/26/22 6/25/23 6/23/24 6/22/25 6/21/26 - - -
1AUD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Metcash Limited

Fiscal Period: April 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
CAPEX 1 121.7 372.7 135.9 148.5 175.2 152.9 148.1 158.7
Change - 206.24% -63.54% 9.27% 17.98% -12.75% -3.12% 7.16%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 310.6 220.6 346.7 390.5 382.8 388.5 443 453.1
Change - -28.98% 57.16% 12.63% -1.97% 1.48% 14.02% 2.29%
Announcement Date 6/26/22 6/25/23 6/23/24 6/22/25 6/21/26 - - -
1AUD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Metcash Limited

Fiscal Period: April 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 4.27% 4.28% 4.33% 4.32% 4.39% 4.49% 4.63% 4.73%
EBIT Margin (%) 3.11% 3.17% 3.12% 2.93% 2.9% 2.86% 2.98% 3.08%
EBT Margin (%) 2.36% 2.38% 2.34% 2.23% 2.22% 2.1% 2.22% 2.26%
Net margin (%) 1.62% 1.64% 1.62% 1.64% 1.61% 1.47% 1.56% 1.63%
FCF margin (%) 2.05% 1.4% 2.18% 2.25% 2.21% 2.2% 2.46% 2.45%
FCF / Net Income (%) 126.57% 85.17% 134.8% 137.84% 137.16% 149.83% 158.03% 150.08%

Profitability

        
ROA 5.96% 5.81% 4.7% 4.47% 4.02% 5.5% 5.72% 6.29%
ROE 25.39% 28.56% 19.68% 17.53% 16.13% 15.05% 15.59% 15.97%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 0.29x 2.07x 1.91x 2.42x 2.41x 2.37x 2.28x 2.15x
Debt / Free cash flow 0.61x 6.34x 3.79x 4.62x 4.79x 4.84x 4.3x 4.16x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 0.8% 2.36% 0.85% 0.86% 1.01% 0.87% 0.82% 0.86%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 18.78% 55.15% 19.74% 19.86% 23% 19.31% 17.74% 18.12%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 39.18% 168.95% 39.2% 38.03% 45.77% 39.35% 33.43% 35.02%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.4383 0.3847 0.4827 0.4918 0.5077 0.4665 0.4986 0.5299
Change - -12.23% 25.48% 1.88% 3.23% -8.12% 6.89% 6.27%
Dividend per Share 1 0.215 0.225 0.22 0.18 0.18 0.1744 0.1859 0.1995
Change - 4.65% -2.22% -18.18% 0% -3.08% 6.55% 7.35%
Book Value Per Share 1 1.118 1.112 1.4 1.48 1.552 1.622 1.691 1.767
Change - -0.58% 25.92% 5.7% 4.87% 4.52% 4.26% 4.46%
EPS 1 0.25 0.268 0.257 0.259 0.253 0.2368 0.2564 0.2805
Change - 7.2% -4.1% 0.78% -2.32% -6.42% 8.3% 9.4%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 965,542 965,542 1,091,554 1,098,582 1,099,726 1,099,726 1,099,726 1,099,726
Announcement Date 6/26/22 6/25/23 6/23/24 6/22/25 6/21/26 - - -
1AUD
Estimates
2027 *2028 *
P/E 13.3x 12.2x
PBR 1.94x 1.86x
EV / Sales 0.3x 0.3x
Yield 5.56% 5.92%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
12
Last Close Price
3.140AUD
Average target price
3.464AUD
Spread / Average Target
+10.32%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise