Projected Income Statement: Marcopolo

Forecast Balance Sheet: Marcopolo

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 999 1,197 884 1,158 1,481 1,498 1,378 951
Change - 19.82% -26.15% 31% 27.89% 1.13% -8.01% -30.99%
Announcement Date 2/25/22 2/28/23 2/27/24 2/25/25 2/26/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Marcopolo

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 100.1 90.33 154 344.6 320.9 318.7 336.6 336.8
Change - -9.75% 70.44% 123.82% -6.88% -0.68% 5.63% 0.06%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 88.17 -44.96 907.2 899.6 1,118 669 888.7 918
Change - -150.99% 2,117.78% -0.84% 24.27% -40.16% 32.84% 3.3%
Announcement Date 2/25/22 2/28/23 2/27/24 2/25/25 2/26/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Marcopolo

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 9.53% 7.12% 14.17% 18.91% 16.63% 17.75% 17.72% 17.94%
EBIT Margin (%) 6.52% 4.91% 11.98% 16.96% 14.9% 15.17% 15.9% 15.78%
EBT Margin (%) 10.94% 7.63% 12.95% 17.11% 17.31% 15.72% 16.6% 16.31%
Net margin (%) 10.48% 8.29% 12.21% 13.96% 13.51% 13.26% 12.49% 12.5%
FCF margin (%) 2.52% -0.83% 13.57% 10.47% 12.34% 7.27% 8.84% 8.44%
FCF / Net Income (%) 24.05% -10.01% 111.15% 74.96% 91.38% 54.88% 70.83% 67.53%

Profitability

        
ROA 5.86% 6.39% 10.63% 13.79% 12.77% 11.54% 11.44% 11.4%
ROE 13.44% 14.8% 24.33% 31.7% 31.13% 27.71% 26.92% 26.51%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 3x 3.1x 0.93x 0.71x 0.98x 0.92x 0.77x 0.49x
Debt / Free cash flow 11.33x -26.62x 0.97x 1.29x 1.33x 2.24x 1.55x 1.04x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 2.86% 1.67% 2.3% 4.01% 3.54% 3.47% 3.35% 3.1%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 30.01% 23.42% 16.26% 21.2% 21.3% 19.52% 18.91% 17.27%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 113.51% -200.91% 16.97% 38.3% 28.7% 47.63% 37.88% 36.69%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.1517 - - - 1.151 0.9144 1.028 -
Change - - - - - -20.56% 12.41% -
Dividend per Share 1 - 0.0697 0.1818 0.7454 1.05 0.4244 0.4909 0.6502
Change - - 160.86% 309.99% 40.85% -59.58% 15.65% 32.46%
Book Value Per Share 1 2.324 2.53 2.837 3.222 3.066 3.578 3.834 4.12
Change - 8.86% 12.12% 13.57% -4.83% 16.68% 7.18% 7.44%
EPS 1 0.2933 0.3593 0.653 0.9906 0.9789 0.9781 1.01 1.118
Change - 22.5% 81.73% 51.7% -1.17% -0.09% 3.24% 10.74%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,240,387 1,241,322 1,242,770 1,243,450 1,240,354 1,241,400 1,241,400 1,241,400
Announcement Date 2/25/22 2/28/23 2/27/24 2/25/25 2/26/26 - - -
1BRL
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 4.57x 4.43x
PBR 1.25x 1.17x
EV / Sales 0.75x 0.68x
Yield 9.5% 11%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
B
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
10
Last Close Price
4.470BRL
Average target price
8.430BRL
Spread / Average Target
+88.59%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise