Projected Income Statement: Lynas Rare Earths Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Lynas Rare Earths Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Net Debt 1 -779 -834 -352 -15.2 -871 -1,124 -1,797 -2,617
Change - -7.06% 57.79% 95.68% -5,630.26% -29.08% -59.88% -45.63%
Announcement Date 8/25/22 8/28/23 8/27/24 8/27/25 8/25/26 - - -
1AUD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Lynas Rare Earths Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
CAPEX 1 186.3 595.5 579.3 430.8 178.3 287.4 270.5 173
Change - 219.65% -2.72% -25.64% -58.62% 61.21% -5.89% -36.03%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 273.8 -208.8 -544.4 -326.7 140.5 463.6 678.2 843.6
Change - -176.25% -160.76% 39.99% 143.02% 229.84% 46.29% 24.4%
Announcement Date 8/25/22 8/28/23 8/27/24 8/27/25 8/25/26 - - -
1AUD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Lynas Rare Earths Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 65.35% 51.09% 28.52% 18.18% 39.47% 54.85% 61.52% 65.44%
EBIT Margin (%) 58.76% 42.68% 16.24% 1.11% 25.29% 46.12% 51.57% 58.33%
EBT Margin (%) 58.23% 47.05% 22.77% 1.75% 26.18% 44.82% 51.35% 54.65%
Net margin (%) 58.78% 42.02% 18.24% 1.44% 22.74% 34.92% 40% 42.35%
FCF margin (%) 29.76% -28.24% -117.5% -58.7% 14.37% 28.08% 32.61% 33.2%
FCF / Net Income (%) 50.62% -67.2% -644.12% -4,088.31% 63.21% 80.42% 81.55% 78.4%

Profitability

        
ROA 30.56% 13.22% 3.11% 0.28% 6.11% 12.24% 13.94% 16.42%
ROE 39.63% 16.31% 3.84% 0.35% 7.61% 14.63% 17.91% 19.68%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 20.25% 80.55% 125.05% 77.41% 18.23% 17.41% 13.01% 6.81%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 30.99% 157.68% 438.45% 425.77% 46.18% 31.74% 21.14% 10.4%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 68.05% -285.26% -106.42% -131.89% 126.84% 62% 39.88% 20.51%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.5079 0.4223 0.0373 0.1109 0.3163 0.676 0.9665 1.129
Change - -16.85% -91.17% 197.48% 185.21% 113.73% 42.97% 16.78%
Dividend per Share 1 - - - - - 0.0817 0.1284 0.4404
Change - - - - - - 57.22% 242.99%
Book Value Per Share 1 1.824 2.317 2.399 2.515 3.468 4.049 4.861 5.78
Change - 27.04% 3.57% 4.82% 37.88% 16.76% 20.05% 18.9%
EPS 1 0.597 0.3392 0.0901 0.0085 0.2206 0.5717 0.8247 1.068
Change - -43.18% -73.44% -90.57% 2,495.29% 159.17% 44.25% 29.54%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 902,412 933,815 934,718 935,447 1,006,503 1,006,503 1,006,503 1,006,503
Announcement Date 8/25/22 8/28/23 8/27/24 8/27/25 8/25/26 - - -
1AUD
Estimates
2027 *2028 *
P/E 25.1x 17.4x
PBR 3.55x 2.96x
EV / Sales 8.08x 6.09x
Yield 0.57% 0.89%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
14
Last Close Price
14.37AUD
Average target price
17.92AUD
Spread / Average Target
+24.74%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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