Projected Income Statement: Holmen AB

Forecast Balance Sheet: Holmen AB

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 4,101 2,145 1,869 3,397 4,979 4,857 5,127 4,983
Change - -47.7% -12.87% 81.75% 46.57% -2.45% 5.56% -2.81%
Announcement Date 1/28/22 1/31/23 1/31/24 1/31/25 1/30/26 - - -
1SEK in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Holmen AB

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 1,775 1,401 1,706 2,123 2,139 1,393 1,620 1,600
Change - -21.07% 21.77% 24.44% 0.75% -34.86% 16.27% -1.24%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 1,454 4,083 4,099 1,194 1,712 2,326 2,011 1,993
Change - 180.81% 0.39% -70.87% 43.38% 35.86% -13.54% -0.88%
Announcement Date 1/28/22 1/31/23 1/31/24 1/31/25 1/30/26 - - -
1SEK in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Holmen AB

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 27.32% 35.93% 26.82% 22.45% 21.46% 20.22% 21.19% 21.91%
EBIT Margin (%) 20.85% 30.32% 20.86% 16.35% 14.83% 14.08% 15.18% 15.93%
EBT Margin (%) 18.95% 31.07% 20.64% 16.08% 14.35% 13.6% 14.55% 15.24%
Net margin (%) 15.42% 24.52% 16.22% 12.57% 13.05% 10.61% 11.35% 11.89%
FCF margin (%) 7.46% 17.05% 17.98% 5.25% 7.76% 10.71% 9.19% 9.05%
FCF / Net Income (%) 48.4% 69.51% 110.87% 41.73% 59.47% 100.88% 80.92% 76.13%

Profitability

        
ROA 4.6% 7.82% 4.59% 3.55% 3.55% 2.81% 3.02% 2.92%
ROE 7% 11% 7% 5% 5% 4.16% 4.53% 4.64%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 0.77x 0.25x 0.31x 0.66x 1.05x 1.11x 1.11x 1.03x
Debt / Free cash flow 2.82x 0.53x 0.46x 2.85x 2.91x 2.09x 2.55x 2.5x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 9.11% 5.85% 7.48% 9.33% 9.7% 6.41% 7.4% 7.27%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 33.35% 16.28% 27.9% 41.55% 45.19% 31.72% 34.94% 33.17%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 122.08% 34.31% 41.62% 177.81% 124.94% 59.9% 80.56% 80.26%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 19.89 33.89 36.11 20.87 24.75 26.5 23.9 26.9
Change - 70.38% 6.57% -42.21% 18.58% 7.09% -9.81% 12.55%
Dividend per Share 1 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 9.317 9.718 10.11
Change - 6.67% 6.25% 5.88% 5.56% -1.93% 4.3% 4.05%
Book Value Per Share 1 289.4 351.9 354.1 360.9 - 363.9 375.1 383.3
Change - 21.61% 0.62% 1.92% - - 3.08% 2.2%
EPS 1 18.5 36.3 23 18 18.5 15.2 16.5 17.48
Change - 96.22% -36.64% -21.74% 2.78% -17.82% 8.55% 5.9%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 161,926 162,002 159,222 158,108 154,285 150,435 150,435 150,435
Announcement Date 1/28/22 1/31/23 1/31/24 1/31/25 1/30/26 - - -
1SEK
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 21.3x 19.6x
PBR 0.89x 0.86x
EV / Sales 2.46x 2.45x
Yield 2.88% 3.01%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
9
Last Close Price
323.20SEK
Average target price
341.33SEK
Spread / Average Target
+5.61%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise