Company Valuation: Greggs plc

Data adjusted to current consolidation scope
Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Market Cap 1 3,342 2,387 2,673 2,801 1,708 1,901 - -
Change - -28.59% 12% 4.77% -39.02% 11.33% - -
Enterprise Value (EV) 1 3,427 2,497 2,798 3,091 2,112 2,316 2,302 2,281
Change - -27.15% 12.06% 10.48% -31.67% 9.68% -0.6% -0.91%
P/E 28.8x 20.1x 18.9x 18.4x 14.1x 14.9x 14.4x 13.4x
PBR 7.9x 5.41x 5.08x 4.96x - 2.77x 2.55x 2.36x
PEG - 7.18x 1x 2.46x -0.7x 3.21x 3.53x 1.85x
Capitalization / Revenue 2.72x 1.58x 1.48x 1.39x 0.79x 0.83x 0.78x 0.73x
EV / Revenue 2.79x 1.65x 1.55x 1.53x 0.98x 1.01x 0.94x 0.88x
EV / EBITDA 13.2x 9.25x 9.43x 9.22x 6.07x 6.2x 5.81x 5.35x
EV / EBIT 22.4x 16.2x 16.3x 15.8x 11.3x 12x 11.5x 10.6x
EV / FCF 14.8x 16.8x 24.8x 44.2x 40.9x 20.7x 16.7x 14.6x
FCF Yield 6.75% 5.94% 4.03% 2.26% 2.44% 4.82% 5.97% 6.83%
Dividend per Share 2 0.57 0.59 0.62 0.69 0.69 0.692 0.6995 0.7273
Rate of return 1.73% 2.5% 2.35% 2.5% 4.1% 3.71% 3.75% 3.9%
EPS 2 1.143 1.175 1.392 1.496 1.193 1.248 1.299 1.393
Distribution rate 49.9% 50.2% 44.5% 46.1% 57.8% 55.4% 53.8% 52.2%
Net sales 1 1,230 1,513 1,810 2,014 2,151 2,299 2,441 2,601
EBITDA 1 260.6 269.9 296.7 335.3 348.1 373.7 396.4 426.4
EBIT 1 153.2 154.4 171.7 195.3 187.5 193 200.1 215.7
Net income 1 117.5 120.3 142.5 153.4 122.2 127.7 132.9 141.8
Net Debt 1 84.6 109.7 124.3 289.8 404 414.8 400.8 379.9
Reference price 2 32.94 23.58 26.36 27.60 16.83 18.65 18.65 18.65
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 101,470 101,224 101,415 101,480 101,480 101,955 - -
Announcement Date 3/8/22 3/7/23 3/5/24 3/4/25 3/3/26 - - -
1GBP in Million2GBP
Estimates

P/E, Detailed evolution



P/E (N) EV / Sales (N) EV / EBITDA (N) Dividend Yield (N) Capi.($)
14.94x1.01x6.2x3.71% 2.57B
45.7x3.63x23.64x2.41% 119B
23.25x1.18x11.6x2.4% 52.3B
19.26x1.95x11.77x2.99% 24.62B
33.67x1.46x12.28x0.71% 11.99B
13.26x1.63x8.01x2.09% 9.98B
32.87x0.49x9.17x2.84% 9.84B
41.94x2.9x16.03x0.35% 8.77B
13.11x1.07x6.51x6.87% 8.22B
15.74x2.78x10.9x2.95% 7.58B
Average 25.37x 1.81x 11.61x 2.73% 25.5B
Weighted average by Cap. 33.83x 2.51x 16.95x 2.49%

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Historical PBR trend

Evolution Enterprise Value / Sales

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA



Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

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