Projected Income Statement: ESR-REIT

Forecast Balance Sheet: ESR-REIT

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 1,167 2,030 1,514 2,170 2,164 2,289 2,296 2,323
Change - 73.95% -25.42% 43.33% -0.28% 5.76% 0.31% 1.18%
Announcement Date 1/26/22 1/30/23 1/31/24 1/23/25 2/3/26 - - -
1SGD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: ESR-REIT

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 28.48 98.57 93.54 26.2 46.1 31.14 41.7 39.85
Change - 246.15% -5.1% -71.99% 75.99% -32.46% 33.91% -4.44%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 142.9 223.1 166.6 243.4 248.1 308.6 273.1 280.9
Change - 56.19% -25.33% 46.11% 1.9% 24.41% -11.5% 2.86%
Announcement Date 1/26/22 1/30/23 1/31/24 1/23/25 2/3/26 - - -
1SGD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: ESR-REIT

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 64.51% 63.48% 63.38% 62.96% 66.98% 70.5% 69.75% 70.27%
EBIT Margin (%) 64.51% 63.48% 63.38% 62.96% 66.98% 70.5% 69.75% 70.27%
EBT Margin (%) 44.66% -76.32% -17.02% -25.88% 13.8% 44.49% 46.94% 44.79%
Net margin (%) 42.07% -81.07% -17.46% -34.49% 7.1% 34.17% 36.47% 38.15%
FCF margin (%) 59.21% 65.01% 43.12% 65.7% 55.62% 73.66% 64.33% 65.75%
FCF / Net Income (%) 140.73% -80.19% -247.01% -190.5% 783.57% 215.58% 176.38% 172.32%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.12% -6.2% 2.68% 1.96% 2.38% 2.13% 2.37% 2.19%
ROE 6.07% -12.38% 5.23% 4% 5.52% 7.93% 8.32% 8.58%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 7.5x 9.32x 6.18x 9.3x 7.24x 7.75x 7.75x 7.74x
Debt / Free cash flow 8.17x 9.1x 9.09x 8.91x 8.72x 7.42x 8.41x 8.27x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 11.8% 28.72% 24.21% 7.07% 10.34% 7.43% 9.82% 9.33%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 18.3% 45.24% 38.2% 11.23% 15.43% 10.54% 14.08% 13.27%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 19.93% 44.18% 56.15% 10.76% 18.59% 10.09% 15.27% 14.19%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.4493 0.551 0.349 0.349 0.3661 0.2743 0.2828 0.2852
Change - 22.64% -36.66% 0% 4.9% -25.08% 3.08% 0.88%
Dividend per Share 1 0.2987 0.3 0.2564 0.2119 0.2191 0.2189 0.2156 0.22
Change - 0.44% -14.53% -17.36% 3.42% -0.1% -1.53% 2.05%
Book Value Per Share 1 3.96 3.64 3.2 2.75 2.55 2.494 2.482 2.458
Change - -8.08% -12.09% -14.06% -7.27% -2.19% -0.49% -0.95%
EPS 1 0.266 -0.477 -0.091 -0.1914 0.0394 0.2049 0.1973 0.2148
Change - -279.32% 80.92% -110.33% 120.59% 420.1% -3.71% 8.87%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 403,026 670,649 768,916 804,916 803,677 808,058 808,058 808,058
Announcement Date 1/26/22 1/30/23 1/31/24 1/23/25 2/3/26 - - -
1SGD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 10.8x 11.2x
PBR 0.89x 0.89x
EV / Sales 9.71x 9.6x
Yield 9.91% 9.75%

EPS & Dividend



Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

 

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
BBB
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
6
Last Close Price
2.210SGD
Average target price
2.960SGD
Spread / Average Target
+33.94%

Annual profits - Rate of surprise

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