Projected Income Statement: Diageo plc

Forecast Balance Sheet: Diageo plc

Fiscal Period: June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 16,871 16,657 19,195 20,371 21,548 20,241 17,280 15,421
Change - -1.27% 15.24% 6.13% 5.78% -6.07% -14.63% -10.76%
Announcement Date 7/29/21 7/28/22 8/1/23 7/30/24 8/5/25 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Diageo plc

Fiscal Period: June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 874.5 1,330 1,504 1,510 1,549 1,220 1,199 1,145
Change - 52.14% 13.02% 0.42% 2.58% -21.24% -1.71% -4.49%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 4,230 3,442 3,511 2,595 2,748 3,031 3,251 3,478
Change - -18.63% 2% -26.08% 5.9% 10.3% 7.25% 6.98%
Announcement Date 7/29/21 7/28/22 8/1/23 7/30/24 8/5/25 - - -
1USD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Diageo plc

Fiscal Period: June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 32.93% 36.4% 35.76% 34.72% 32.82% 32.41% 31.95% 32.35%
EBIT Margin (%) 29.42% 31.04% 30.7% 29.33% 28.17% 28.37% 27.76% 28.27%
EBT Margin (%) 29.11% 28.39% 27.67% 26.94% 17.47% 24.37% 24.97% 26.65%
Net margin (%) 20.89% 21.03% 21.82% 19.09% 11.63% 17.32% 17.6% 18.72%
FCF margin (%) 23.78% 18.37% 16.1% 12.8% 13.57% 15.45% 16.88% 17.53%
FCF / Net Income (%) 113.83% 87.35% 73.78% 67.05% 116.74% 89.17% 95.87% 93.66%

Profitability

        
ROA 8.41% 10.28% 10.26% 8.88% 7.7% 7% 6.81% 7%
ROE 40.18% 47.91% 47.39% 40.35% 34.54% 28.91% 24.42% 22.42%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.88x 2.44x 2.46x 2.89x 3.24x 3.18x 2.81x 2.4x
Debt / Free cash flow 3.99x 4.84x 5.47x 7.85x 7.84x 6.68x 5.32x 4.43x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 4.92% 7.1% 6.9% 7.45% 7.65% 6.22% 6.23% 5.77%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 14.93% 19.5% 19.28% 21.46% 23.31% 19.18% 19.49% 17.85%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 20.67% 38.65% 42.83% 58.19% 56.37% 40.25% 36.89% 32.93%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 2.171 2.053 1.697 1.833 1.929 1.876 1.867 1.991
Change - -5.45% -17.33% 8.05% 5.19% -2.71% -0.49% 6.63%
Dividend per Share 1 1.013 0.9239 1.019 1.035 1.035 0.5361 0.5548 0.5935
Change - -8.84% 10.34% 1.51% 0% -48.19% 3.48% 6.98%
Book Value Per Share 1 4.11 4.151 4.394 4.491 4.991 5.816 6.835 7.892
Change - 1% 5.84% 2.21% 11.14% 16.53% 17.52% 15.46%
EPS 1 1.584 1.694 2.095 1.728 1.057 1.543 1.546 1.696
Change - 6.95% 23.65% -17.52% -38.83% 45.99% 0.19% 9.69%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,334,775 2,278,906 2,245,879 2,219,979 2,222,295 2,223,707 2,223,707 2,223,707
Announcement Date 7/29/21 7/28/22 8/1/23 7/30/24 8/5/25 - - -
1USD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 14.3x 14.2x
PBR 3.78x 3.22x
EV / Sales 3.53x 3.44x
Yield 2.44% 2.52%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
23
Last Close Price
22.00USD
Average target price
25.85USD
Spread / Average Target
+17.49%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise