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Projected Income Statement: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 7,547 | 8,635 | 9,872 | 11,314 | 11,926 | 12,997 | 14,377 | 15,794 |
| Change | - | 14.41% | 14.33% | 14.61% | 5.41% | 8.98% | 10.62% | 9.85% |
| EBITDA 1 | 1,153 | 1,464 | 1,896 | 2,265 | 2,333 | 2,216 | 2,583 | 2,899 |
| Change | - | 26.93% | 29.52% | 19.45% | 3.02% | -5.02% | 16.53% | 12.25% |
| EBIT 1 | 898.7 | 1,177 | 1,577 | 1,930 | 1,972 | 1,811 | 2,152 | 2,444 |
| Change | - | 30.98% | 33.95% | 22.4% | 2.17% | -8.14% | 18.84% | 13.54% |
| Interest Paid | 7.82 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 812.8 | 1,182 | 1,621 | 2,010 | 2,010 | 1,831 | 2,170 | 2,454 |
| Change | - | 45.37% | 37.15% | 24.05% | -0.04% | -8.87% | 18.51% | 13.08% |
| Net income 1 | 653 | 899.1 | 1,229 | 1,534 | 1,536 | 1,367 | 1,633 | 1,831 |
| Change | - | 37.69% | 36.66% | 24.85% | 0.11% | -11% | 19.49% | 12.14% |
| Announcement Date | 2/8/22 | 2/7/23 | 2/6/24 | 2/4/25 | 2/3/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Balance Sheet: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | -815 | -384 | -561 | -749 | -351 | 4,679 | 4,575 | 4,231 |
| Change | - | 52.88% | -46.09% | -33.51% | 53.14% | 1,434.78% | -2.22% | -7.52% |
| Announcement Date | 2/8/22 | 2/7/23 | 2/6/24 | 2/4/25 | 2/3/26 | - | - | - |
Cash Flow Forecast: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPEX 1 | 442.5 | 479.2 | 560.7 | 593.6 | 666.3 | 827 | 782 | 807.4 |
| Change | - | 8.29% | 17.02% | 5.86% | 12.25% | 24.11% | -5.44% | 3.24% |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 | 839.6 | 844 | 1,223 | 1,511 | 1,448 | 1,510 | 1,600 | 1,729 |
| Change | - | 0.53% | 44.87% | 23.61% | -4.23% | 4.29% | 6% | 8.03% |
| Announcement Date | 2/8/22 | 2/7/23 | 2/6/24 | 2/4/25 | 2/3/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Financial Ratios: Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Profitability | ||||||||
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 15.28% | 16.95% | 19.21% | 20.02% | 19.56% | 17.05% | 17.96% | 18.35% |
| EBIT Margin (%) | 11.91% | 13.63% | 15.97% | 17.06% | 16.53% | 13.94% | 14.97% | 15.47% |
| EBT Margin (%) | 10.77% | 13.68% | 16.42% | 17.77% | 16.85% | 14.09% | 15.09% | 15.54% |
| Net margin (%) | 8.65% | 10.41% | 12.45% | 13.56% | 12.88% | 10.52% | 11.36% | 11.6% |
| FCF margin (%) | 11.12% | 9.77% | 12.39% | 13.36% | 12.14% | 11.62% | 11.13% | 10.95% |
| FCF / Net Income (%) | 128.58% | 93.87% | 99.51% | 98.52% | 94.26% | 110.45% | 97.99% | 94.4% |
Profitability | ||||||||
| ROA | 10.34% | 13.24% | 16.61% | 17.84% | 17.24% | 14.7% | 16.45% | 16.77% |
| ROE | 33.57% | 39.43% | 45.78% | 45.81% | 48.36% | 51.57% | 59.47% | 58.16% |
Financial Health | ||||||||
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | - | - | - | - | - | 2.11x | 1.77x | 1.46x |
| Debt / Free cash flow | - | - | - | - | - | 3.1x | 2.86x | 2.45x |
Capital Intensity | ||||||||
| CAPEX / Current Assets (%) | 5.86% | 5.55% | 5.68% | 5.25% | 5.59% | 6.36% | 5.44% | 5.11% |
| CAPEX / EBITDA (%) | 38.37% | 32.73% | 29.57% | 26.21% | 28.56% | 37.32% | 30.28% | 27.85% |
| CAPEX / FCF (%) | 52.7% | 56.77% | 45.86% | 39.27% | 46.03% | 54.78% | 48.86% | 46.7% |
Items per share | ||||||||
| Cash flow per share 1 | 0.8994 | 0.943 | 1.287 | 1.529 | 1.574 | 1.64 | 1.795 | 2.061 |
| Change | - | 4.86% | 36.5% | 18.8% | 2.96% | 4.13% | 9.46% | 14.83% |
| Dividend per Share 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Change | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Book Value Per Share 1 | 1.612 | 1.688 | 2.21 | 2.656 | 2.108 | 2.03 | 1.71 | 2.85 |
| Change | - | 4.72% | 30.96% | 20.15% | -20.61% | -3.73% | -15.74% | 66.67% |
| EPS 1 | 0.458 | 0.6408 | 0.8868 | 1.11 | 1.14 | 1.07 | 1.313 | 1.532 |
| Change | - | 39.91% | 38.39% | 25.17% | 2.7% | -6.11% | 22.72% | 16.65% |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 1,406,770 | 1,386,056 | 1,372,233 | 1,363,639 | 1,322,278 | 1,264,975 | 1,264,975 | 1,264,975 |
| Announcement Date | 2/8/22 | 2/7/23 | 2/6/24 | 2/4/25 | 2/3/26 | - | - | - |
| 2026 * | 2027 * | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E | 29.8x | 24.3x |
| PBR | 15.7x | 18.6x |
| EV / Sales | 3.46x | 3.12x |
| Yield | - | - |
EPS & Dividend
Y-o-Y evolution of P/E
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
Trader
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ESG MSCI
The MSCI ESG score assesses a company’s environmental, social, and governance practices relative to its industry peers. Companies are rated from CCC (laggard) to AAA (leader). This rating helps investors incorporate sustainability risks and opportunities into their investment decisions.
Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise
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