Projected Income Statement: Alfresa Holdings Corporation

Forecast Balance Sheet: Alfresa Holdings Corporation

Fiscal Period: March 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Net Debt -175,397 -156,267 -178,819 -141,540 -157,446 - - -
Change - 10.91% -14.43% 20.85% -11.24% - - -
Announcement Date 5/16/22 5/15/23 5/14/24 5/15/25 5/15/26 - - -
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Alfresa Holdings Corporation

Fiscal Period: March 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
CAPEX 1 16,334 13,675 29,784 21,456 41,004 25,000 21,000 20,000
Change - -16.28% 117.8% -27.96% 91.11% -39.03% -16% -4.76%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 38,850 -7,453 72,162 -15,817 29,845 22,000 16,363 13,000
Change - -119.18% 1,068.23% -121.92% 288.69% -26.29% -25.62% -20.55%
Announcement Date 5/16/22 5/15/23 5/14/24 5/15/25 5/15/26 - - -
1JPY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Alfresa Holdings Corporation

Fiscal Period: March 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 1.62% 1.61% 1.82% 1.98% 1.65% 1.62% 1.61% 1.61%
EBIT Margin (%) 1.13% 1.12% 1.35% 1.29% 1.17% 1.16% 1.18% 1.17%
EBT Margin (%) 1.86% 1.43% 1.53% 1.33% 2% 1.24% 1.23% 1.26%
Net margin (%) 1.24% 0.96% 1.03% 0.92% 1.34% 0.8% 0.86% 0.84%
FCF margin (%) 1.5% -0.28% 2.52% -0.53% 0.96% 0.7% 0.5% 0.39%
FCF / Net Income (%) 120.72% -28.9% 244.14% -57.75% 71.49% 87.14% 58.19% 47.14%

Profitability

        
ROA 2.49% 2.48% 2.87% 2.8% 2.62% 2.6% 2.8% -
ROE 6.7% 5.4% 6.1% 5.7% 8.4% 4.5% 5.55% 5.2%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 0.63% 0.51% 1.04% 0.72% 1.32% 0.79% 0.65% 0.61%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 38.97% 31.47% 57.31% 36.61% 80.07% 48.9% 40.17% 37.65%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 42.04% -183.48% 41.27% -135.65% 137.39% 113.64% 128.34% 153.85%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 211.8 190.7 222 225.2 310.2 - - -
Change - -9.96% 16.42% 1.46% 37.73% - - -
Dividend per Share 1 54 57 70 63 68 71 79 85
Change - 5.56% 22.81% -10% 7.94% 4.41% 11.27% 7.59%
Book Value Per Share 1 2,330 2,412 2,566 2,650 2,792 2,866 2,994 3,003
Change - 3.5% 6.41% 3.26% 5.35% 2.65% 4.47% 0.3%
EPS 1 153.6 127.4 154.1 147.5 229.6 130 162.3 154.2
Change - -17.03% 20.96% -4.28% 55.65% -43.39% 24.84% -4.95%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 202,370 202,369 186,870 181,789 181,719 175,410 175,410 175,410
Announcement Date 5/16/22 5/15/23 5/14/24 5/15/25 5/15/26 - - -
1JPY
Estimates
2027 *2028 *
P/E 17.8x 14.3x
PBR 0.81x 0.77x
EV / Sales 0.13x 0.12x
Yield 3.06% 3.41%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
2
Last Close Price
2,317.50JPY
Average target price
2,500.00JPY
Spread / Average Target
+7.87%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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  4. Financials Alfresa Holdings Corporation