The Group says that this increase should be reflected positively in Exploration-Production results, supported by a slightly more favorable price environment than in Q4 2024. Brent crude averaged $75.7 per barrel over the period, compared with $74.7 at the end of 2024. The average liquids price rose slightly to $72.2 per barrel, while the average gas price rose to $6.60 per MMBtu.

LNG (liquefied natural gas) activities should also benefit from improved market conditions year-on-year, with an average sales price of $10 per Mbtu, up from $9.58 in the first quarter of 2024. However, this level remains slightly down on Q4 ($10.37).

Integrated Power: in line with expectations

In the Integrated Power Division, earnings are expected to come in at between $450m and $500m, in line with Q2 and Q3 of the previous year, with no significant contribution from asset disposals over the period. Associated cash flow is expected to be around $600m, in line with the announced annual trajectory.

Refining-Chemicals: + and -

Results for the Refining-Chemicals segment are expected to remain close to those of the previous quarter. The group benefited from a slight improvement in its European refining margin (ERM), from $25.9 to $29.4 per tonne, and from better capacity utilization. However, these effects were mitigated by lower petrochemical and bio margins, particularly in Europe, in a context of overcapacity. At the same time, Marketing & Services results are expected to be at the level of the first quarter of 2024, due to the characteristic seasonality of the business. Refining & Chemicals cash flow will be temporarily affected by lower dividends from associates, with an estimated effect of -200 million USD compared with the fourth quarter of 2024. In addition, working capital requirements are expected to rise by between $4bn and $5bn, in line with the seasonal trends observed over the past three years, albeit with a slight improvement on 2024.

Sensitivity of earnings to price fluctuations

Lastly, the group specified its financial sensitivities for the year: a $10 per barrel change in the selling price of liquids could impact adjusted net operating income by $2.3bn, and cash flow by $2.8bn. An increase of $2 per Mbtu in European gas prices (TTF) could generate a gain of $0.4bn on these two indicators.

TotalEnergies will publish its Q1 results at 8am on 30 April.