April sees another near-universal increase in business activity across the
Business activity continued to rise across almost all
The PMI Business Activity Index is the first fact-based indicator of regional economic health published each month, tracking the monthly change in the output of goods and services across the private sector. A reading above 50 signals growth, and the further above the 50 level the faster the expansion signalled.
Nearly all nations and regions recorded a rise in business activity for the second month running in April.
Demand
Ten of the 12 monitored
Capacity
Once again, there were mixed trends on the employment front in April.
Backlogs of work continued rising in
Prices
April saw a broad-based increase in cost inflation across the
The fastest rise in output prices in April was recorded in the North East, where the rate of inflation hit an 11-month high.
Outlook
Business confidence towards growth prospects in the coming year eased in the majority of nations and regions in April, although expectations were still stronger than their respective long-run averages in most cases. Optimism was highest in the South East, followed closely by the
PMI survey coverage in
'Most areas of the
'Yorkshire & Humber is the one area where we are yet to see the economy kick into gear, though the region's firms are optimistic about their prospects for the coming year, as is the case across the
'Whilst there are generally positive signs for activity and demand, hiring remains somewhat lacklustre. Just half of the 12 nations and regions monitored by the survey saw employment rise at the start of the second quarter, which equated to broadly no change at the
'Businesses appear to be taking a more cautious approach to hiring, at a time when costs are continuing to rise relatively sharply, not least due to staff pay increases. April's near-10% jump in the National Living Wage, and the expansion of its coverage, has lifted rates of business cost inflation once again. Slower increases in prices charged for goods and services in April will be music to the ears of policymakers, but they will be keeping their eyes firmly on these numbers going forward should the economy continue to pick up speed.'
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NatWest
Regional Campaign Manager
Jonathan.rennie@natwest.com
Economics Associate Director
+44 1491 461 009
phil.smith@spglobal.com
Sabrina Mayeen
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Notes to editors
Methodology
The NatWest
Survey responses are collected in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of 'higher' responses and half the percentage of 'unchanged' responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted.
The headline figure for each region is the Business Activity Index. This is a diffusion index calculated from a single question that asks for changes in the volume of business activity (at service providers) or output (at manufacturers) compared with one month previously. The Business Activity Index is comparable to the
Underlying survey data are not revised after publication, but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised from time to time as appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series.
The survey data for April were collected
For further information on the PMI survey methodology, please contact economics@spglobal.com.
About PMI
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys are now available for over 40 countries and also for key regions including the eurozone. They are the most closely watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financial markets and business decision makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthly indicators of economic trends. To learn more go to www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/products/pmi.
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