Projected Income Statement: NIO Inc.

Forecast Balance Sheet: NIO Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 -34,507 -37,422 -22,896 -26,881 -2,159 3,245 4,392 6,299
Change - -8.45% 38.82% -17.4% 91.97% 250.33% 35.35% 43.42%
Announcement Date 3/1/21 3/24/22 3/1/23 3/5/24 3/21/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: NIO Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 1,128 4,079 6,973 14,341 9,142 7,519 6,725 6,665
Change - 261.69% 70.96% 105.67% -36.25% -17.75% -10.56% -0.9%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 823.2 -2,112 -10,839 -15,722 -16,991 -21,947 -4,023 2,706
Change - -356.6% -413.11% -45.06% -8.07% -29.16% 81.67% 167.27%
Announcement Date 3/1/21 3/24/22 3/1/23 3/5/24 3/21/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: NIO Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) -21.9% -7.72% -21.3% -30.4% -21.41% -11.47% 0.72% 3.61%
EBIT Margin (%) -28.34% -12.44% -31.75% -36.47% -30.34% -18.16% -5.58% -2.26%
EBT Margin (%) -32.59% -11% -29.19% -36.78% -34.12% -18.56% -5.17% -1.55%
Net margin (%) -34.51% -29.26% -29.55% -38.02% -34.47% -18.57% -5.38% -2.06%
FCF margin (%) 5.06% -5.85% -22% -28.27% -25.85% -25.27% -3.18% 1.85%
FCF / Net Income (%) -14.67% 19.98% 74.45% 74.35% 74.99% 136.08% 59.17% -89.69%

Profitability

        
ROA -16.21% -15.38% -16.25% -17.29% -18.12% -15.06% -6.98% -1.92%
ROE -53.77% -34.17% -49.71% -74.77% -129.35% -205.45% -97.79% -33.28%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - -0.33x 4.81x 1.19x
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - -0.15x -1.09x 2.33x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 6.94% 11.29% 14.15% 25.78% 13.91% 8.66% 5.32% 4.55%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) -31.67% -146.28% -66.46% -84.82% -64.98% -75.51% 735.97% 126.01%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 136.99% -193.09% -64.33% -91.21% -53.81% -34.26% -167.18% 246.28%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 1.65 1.25 -2.362 -0.8126 -3.82 -2.1 5.522 -0.4162
Change - -24.21% -288.88% 65.59% -370.14% 45.03% 362.97% -107.54%
Dividend per Share 1 - - - - - - - -
Change - - - - - - - -
Book Value Per Share 1 17.31 21.12 14.58 15.03 2.904 -3.89 -5.108 -4.24
Change - 21.96% -30.96% 3.05% -80.67% -233.96% -31.31% 17.01%
EPS 1 -4.74 -6.72 -8.89 -12.44 -11.03 -7.477 -3.502 -1.747
Change - -41.77% -32.29% -39.93% 11.33% 32.21% 53.16% 50.12%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,562,643 1,590,573 1,652,453 2,079,974 2,076,918 2,737,543 2,737,543 2,737,543
Announcement Date 3/1/21 3/24/22 3/1/23 3/5/24 3/21/25 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio -4.75x -10.1x
PBR -9.12x -6.95x
EV / Sales 1.16x 0.8x
Yield - -
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
27
Last Close Price
35.49CNY
Average target price
47.09CNY
Spread / Average Target
+32.70%
Consensus

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise