Projected Income Statement: NIO Inc.

Forecast Balance Sheet: NIO Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 -34,507 -37,422 -22,896 -26,881 -2,159 -2,209 8,332 12,567
Change - -8.45% 38.82% -17.4% 91.97% -2.33% 477.18% 50.83%
Announcement Date 3/1/21 3/24/22 3/1/23 3/5/24 3/21/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: NIO Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 1,128 4,079 6,973 14,341 9,142 7,457 6,763 7,089
Change - 261.69% 70.96% 105.67% -36.25% -18.44% -9.3% 4.82%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 823.2 -2,112 -10,839 -15,722 -16,991 -13,935 -8,076 -5,136
Change - -356.6% -413.11% -45.06% -8.07% 17.99% 42.04% 36.41%
Announcement Date 3/1/21 3/24/22 3/1/23 3/5/24 3/21/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: NIO Inc.

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) -21.9% -7.72% -21.3% -30.4% -21.41% -12.91% -4.27% -0.03%
EBIT Margin (%) -28.34% -12.44% -31.75% -36.47% -30.34% -18.68% -9.69% -7.4%
EBT Margin (%) -32.59% -11% -29.19% -36.78% -34.12% -18.39% -9% -6.07%
Net margin (%) -34.51% -29.26% -29.55% -38.02% -34.47% -18.19% -8.61% -5.7%
FCF margin (%) 5.06% -5.85% -22% -28.27% -25.85% -15.54% -6.91% -3.85%
FCF / Net Income (%) -14.67% 19.98% 74.45% 74.35% 74.99% 85.44% 80.26% 67.58%

Profitability

        
ROA -16.21% -15.38% -16.25% -17.29% -18.12% -15.19% -9.2% -7.19%
ROE -53.77% -34.17% -49.71% -74.77% -129.35% -242.6% -156.42% -133.6%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - -1.67x -279.55x
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - -1.03x -2.45x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 6.94% 11.29% 14.15% 25.78% 13.91% 8.31% 5.79% 5.31%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) -31.67% -146.28% -66.46% -84.82% -64.98% -64.42% -135.41% -15,770.51%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 136.99% -193.09% -64.33% -91.21% -53.81% -53.51% -83.74% -138.03%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 1.65 1.25 -2.362 -0.8126 -3.82 -0.6173 0.3964 -0.7656
Change - -24.21% -288.88% 65.59% -370.14% 83.84% 164.22% -293.13%
Dividend per Share 1 - - - - - - - -
Change - - - - - - - -
Book Value Per Share 1 17.31 21.12 14.58 15.03 2.904 -4.248 -5.713 -7.856
Change - 21.96% -30.96% 3.05% -80.67% -246.26% -34.5% -37.5%
EPS 1 -4.74 -6.72 -8.89 -12.44 -11.03 -7.828 -5.074 -3.016
Change - -41.77% -32.29% -39.93% 11.33% 29.03% 35.18% 40.55%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,562,643 1,590,573 1,652,453 2,079,974 2,102,374 2,242,518 2,242,518 2,242,518
Announcement Date 3/1/21 3/24/22 3/1/23 3/5/24 3/21/25 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio -3.22x -4.97x
PBR -5.93x -4.41x
EV / Sales 0.61x 0.55x
Yield - -
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
28
Last Close Price
25.20CNY
Average target price
34.34CNY
Spread / Average Target
+36.24%
Consensus

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise