It's one of those statistics that financial journalists love. Meta has just racked up 17 consecutive sessions of gains. This is the longest streak for a Nasdaq stock since at least 1990, according to Bloomberg data. And Zonebourse analysts have found no record of such a streak for an American stock in the 21st century. This feat puts Meta ahead of the other members of the famous Magnificent 7 club, with a year-to-date rise of 23%, while the rest of the group's performances range from +6% (Amazon) to -19% (Tesla).

From metaverse to mega-cap

If Meta is now at the top of its game, its stock market performance over the last three years has not been a smooth ride. In 2022, rising interest rates drove down equity markets, particularly in tech, the segment of the stock market where valuations are highest. For Meta, the bill was even more staggering, withApple 's changes to its privacy policy on the one hand and, on the other, the sanctioning of its turn towards the metaverse - marked by the change of name that year - which then looked like going off the rails. Investments in metavers were substantial, and investors saw no monetization on the horizon.

By the end of 2022, the stock had lost almost two-thirds of its value; the company was then worth... just over $300 billion. But the Group has bounced back. On the one hand, the arrival of ChatGPT in November 2022 will enable Meta to get out of its strategic rut and reposition itself in artificial intelligence. On the other hand, the difficulties of 2022 prompted the company to rationalize its costs; a fairly classic process for a company that had hitherto only experienced sales growth in excess of 20%. As a result, Mark Zuckerberg called 2023 "the year of efficiency". And Meta has been able to "deliver". Free cash flow reached a record $43 billion in 2023, with a cash conversion rate of 110%. As a result, Meta was able to announce in early 2024 the payment of the first dividend in its history, to the tune of $5 billion, in addition to major share buy-backs.

Meta is now fully committed to AI and seems ideally positioned to take advantage of it. The investments made are already helping to develop the "historic" business since, thanks to AI tools, advertising is better targeted and results better measured. As a result, the colossal investments required in particular by the AI infrastructure are translating much more quickly into results than those of its major competitors. This explains why investors are less concerned about the $65 billion in CAPEX announced by Mark Zuckerberg, than about Google's $75 billion, Microsoft' s $80 billion or Amazon's $100 billion. What's more, Deepseek's arrival has validated Meta's choices, whose Llama model is open source.

Another asset that will not be negligible for Meta's future is the fact that its boss has subtly (or not) moved closer to Donald Trump in recent months, which should enable the company to escape any new restrictive regulations in the United States. Or even abroad, since the American president is not very fond of European regulations aimed at American tech giants.

AI without Nvidia?

Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, and thus the start of the AI trade on markets, it's mainly semiconductors that have benefited, in their capacity as the shovel and pick seller of this technological revolution. Nvidia, which designs the most advanced chips, has been at the forefront. Nvidia's share price has risen 11-fold since November 2022. This growth is essentially driven by results: sales have multiplied by more than 6, and net income by 14, compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.

But since Deepseek's appearance, the tide has turned for semiconductors. The arrival of the Chinese model - whose performance is equivalent to Western models at lower development costs and using significantly less computing power - has called into question the idea that the AI race would be won by buying ever more chips for maximum computing power.

In response, the AI trade seems to have shifted from hardware (semiconductors) to software (cloud, software), i.e. from companies building AI infrastructure to those deploying AI solutions. And Meta is seen as the best placed company in this respect. Thanks to its series of rises, the stock has already gained 23% since the start of the year, adding around...$300 billion to market capitalization.