Projected Income Statement: Meridian Energy Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Meridian Energy Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 1,513 1,625 847 1,232 1,274 1,420 1,547 1,725
Change - 7.4% -47.88% 45.45% 3.41% 11.46% 8.94% 11.51%
Announcement Date 8/25/20 8/24/21 8/23/22 8/28/23 8/27/24 - - -
1NZD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Meridian Energy Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 43 76 141 316 281 264.7 335 385.9
Change - 76.74% 85.53% 124.11% -11.08% -5.79% 26.54% 15.2%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 562 355 289 180 332 - - -
Change - -36.83% -18.59% -37.72% 84.44% -100% - -
Announcement Date 8/25/20 8/24/21 8/23/22 8/28/23 8/27/24 - - -
1NZD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Meridian Energy Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 25.08% 16.97% 19.15% 24.3% 18.64% 13.7% 21.27% 23.17%
EBIT Margin (%) 15.92% 9.92% 11.23% 15.18% 11.76% 4.92% 12.88% 14.23%
EBT Margin (%) 7.02% 13.85% 16.88% 3.91% 12.23% 2.42% 11.34% 12.12%
Net margin (%) 5.17% 9.96% 17.93% 2.95% 8.83% 2.96% 7.8% 8.6%
FCF margin (%) 16.51% 8.26% 7.8% 5.59% 6.84% - - -
FCF / Net Income (%) 319.32% 82.94% 43.52% 189.47% 77.39% - - -

Profitability

        
ROA 3.29% 2.38% 2.42% 3.25% 3.65% 0.8% 4.41% 4.54%
ROE 6.02% 4.5% 4.34% 5.47% 6.03% 1.21% 5.44% 5.54%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.77x 2.23x 1.19x 1.57x 1.41x 2.18x 1.41x 1.49x
Debt / Free cash flow 2.69x 4.58x 2.93x 6.84x 3.84x - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 1.26% 1.77% 3.81% 9.81% 5.79% 5.57% 6.51% 7.71%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 5.04% 10.43% 19.89% 40.36% 31.05% 40.64% 30.58% 33.3%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 7.65% 21.41% 48.79% 175.56% 84.64% - - -

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.236 0.1682 0.1793 0.1971 0.2578 0.1635 0.3536 0.3235
Change - -28.74% 6.61% 9.92% 30.78% -36.56% 116.22% -8.51%
Dividend per Share 1 0.169 0.169 0.174 0.179 0.21 0.2056 0.2463 0.264
Change - 0% 2.96% 2.87% 17.32% -2.1% 19.8% 7.19%
Book Value Per Share 1 1.984 2.039 2.143 2.318 3.186 3.059 3.061 3.048
Change - 2.78% 5.07% 8.17% 37.44% -3.98% 0.08% -0.44%
EPS 1 0.069 0.167 0.258 0.037 0.166 0.0535 0.1555 0.1652
Change - 142.03% 54.49% -85.66% 348.65% -67.75% 190.36% 6.28%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,562,535 2,562,114 2,577,566 2,583,169 2,588,594 2,615,473 2,615,473 2,615,473
Announcement Date 8/25/20 8/24/21 8/23/22 8/28/23 8/27/24 - - -
1NZD
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio 110x 37.8x
PBR 1.92x 1.92x
EV / Sales 3.53x 3.28x
Yield 3.5% 4.2%
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG MSCI
AAA
More Ratings
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
5
Last Close Price
5.870NZD
Average target price
6.326NZD
Spread / Average Target
+7.77%
Consensus

Annual profits - Rate of surprise

  1. Stock Market
  2. Equities
  3. MEL Stock
  4. Financials Meridian Energy Limited