Projected Income Statement: Meridian Energy Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Meridian Energy Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 1,625 847 1,232 1,274 1,505 1,498 1,524 1,673
Change - -47.88% 45.45% 3.41% 18.13% -0.47% 1.74% 9.78%
Announcement Date 8/24/21 8/23/22 8/28/23 8/27/24 8/26/25 - - -
1NZD in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Meridian Energy Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 76 141 316 281 191 341.8 413 386.3
Change - 85.53% 124.11% -11.08% -32.03% 78.97% 20.83% -6.49%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 355 289 180 332 - 739 776.5 872.5
Change - -18.59% -37.72% 84.44% - - 5.07% 12.36%
Announcement Date 8/24/21 8/23/22 8/28/23 8/27/24 8/26/25 - - -
1NZD in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Meridian Energy Limited

Fiscal Period: June 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.97% 19.15% 24.3% 18.64% 12.64% 23.17% 23.93% 25.67%
EBIT Margin (%) 9.92% 11.23% 15.18% 11.76% 3.39% 12.73% 13.78% 15.32%
EBT Margin (%) 13.85% 16.88% 3.91% 12.23% -12.8% 10.36% 11.38% 12.86%
Net margin (%) 9.96% 17.93% 2.95% 8.83% -9.35% 7.69% 8.33% 9.39%
FCF margin (%) 8.26% 7.8% 5.59% 6.84% - 16.31% 16.35% 18.34%
FCF / Net Income (%) 82.94% 43.52% 189.47% 77.39% - 212.26% 196.37% 195.33%

Profitability

        
ROA 2.38% 2.42% 3.25% 3.65% 0.39% 3.28% 3.66% 4.08%
ROE 4.5% 4.34% 5.47% 6.03% 0.65% 4.34% 4.81% 5.5%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 2.23x 1.19x 1.57x 1.41x 2.46x 1.43x 1.34x 1.37x
Debt / Free cash flow 4.58x 2.93x 6.84x 3.84x - 2.03x 1.96x 1.92x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 1.77% 3.81% 9.81% 5.79% 3.95% 7.55% 8.7% 8.12%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 10.43% 19.89% 40.36% 31.05% 31.26% 32.56% 36.35% 31.62%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 21.41% 48.79% 175.56% 84.64% - 46.26% 53.19% 44.27%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 0.1682 0.1793 0.1971 0.2578 0.1221 0.3112 0.3243 0.3417
Change - 6.61% 9.92% 30.78% -52.63% 154.86% 4.23% 5.34%
Dividend per Share 1 0.169 0.174 0.179 0.21 0.21 0.2294 0.2434 0.2628
Change - 2.96% 2.87% 17.32% 0% 9.24% 6.1% 7.97%
Book Value Per Share 1 2.039 2.143 2.318 3.186 3.425 3.418 3.402 3.399
Change - 5.07% 8.17% 37.44% 7.53% -0.21% -0.49% -0.07%
EPS 1 0.167 0.258 0.037 0.166 -0.174 0.1329 0.1497 0.1708
Change - 54.49% -85.66% 348.65% -204.82% 176.37% 12.67% 14.09%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 2,562,114 2,577,566 2,583,169 2,588,594 2,615,473 2,638,773 2,638,773 2,638,773
Announcement Date 8/24/21 8/23/22 8/28/23 8/27/24 8/26/25 - - -
1NZD
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E ratio 43.3x 38.5x
PBR 1.69x 1.69x
EV / Sales 3.69x 3.52x
Yield 3.98% 4.23%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
5
Last Close Price
5.760NZD
Average target price
6.336NZD
Spread / Average Target
+10.00%

Annual profits - Rate of surprise

  1. Stock Market
  2. Equities
  3. MEL Stock
  4. Financials Meridian Energy Limited