Projected Income Statement: Meituan

Forecast Balance Sheet: Meituan

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 -57,876 -73,919 -109,991 -132,040 -82,952 -95,045 -117,552 -150,335
Change - -27.72% -48.8% -20.05% 37.18% -14.58% -23.68% -27.89%
Announcement Date 3/25/22 3/24/23 3/22/24 3/21/25 3/26/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Meituan

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 9,010 5,731 6,880 10,999 13,271 14,902 16,687 18,192
Change - -36.39% 20.03% 59.89% 20.65% 12.3% 11.98% 9.02%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -13,022 5,680 33,642 46,147 -27,086 9,314 22,954 30,815
Change - 143.62% 492.28% 37.17% -158.69% 134.39% 146.45% 34.25%
Announcement Date 3/25/22 3/24/23 3/22/24 3/21/25 3/26/26 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Meituan

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) -5.41% 4.42% 8.63% 14.55% -3.78% 1.51% 7.61% 10.31%
EBIT Margin (%) -12.91% -2.65% 4.85% 12.11% -6.86% -2.38% 5.07% 7.36%
EBT Margin (%) -13.16% -3.07% 5.07% 11.25% -6.81% -2.72% 4.57% 6.75%
Net margin (%) -13.14% -3.04% 5.01% 10.61% -6.4% -2.73% 4.26% 6.25%
FCF margin (%) -7.27% 2.58% 12.16% 13.67% -7.42% 2.31% 5.02% 6%
FCF / Net Income (%) 55.32% -84.95% 242.8% 128.88% 115.97% -84.89% 117.91% 96.01%

Profitability

        
ROA -11.56% -2.76% 5.16% 11.6% -6.96% -3.09% 5.51% 7.48%
ROE -21.08% -5.26% 9.87% 22.06% -14.43% -3.94% 12.99% 17.42%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 5.03% 2.61% 2.49% 3.26% 3.64% 3.7% 3.65% 3.54%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) -92.95% 58.94% 28.81% 22.39% -96.28% 245.31% 47.94% 34.34%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -69.19% 100.9% 20.45% 23.84% -49% 160% 72.7% 59.04%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 -0.6644 1.854 6.432 9.179 -2.273 4.618 6.653 8.639
Change - 379.05% 246.91% 42.72% -124.77% 303.16% 44.05% 29.86%
Dividend per Share 1 - - - - - - - -
Change - - - - - - - -
Book Value Per Share 1 20.8 20.79 24.33 28.19 24.86 24.41 28.15 34.09
Change - -0.06% 17.04% 15.84% -11.83% -1.81% 15.33% 21.13%
EPS 1 -3.9 -1.09 2.11 5.66 -3.84 -1.841 3.095 5.279
Change - 72.05% 293.58% 168.25% -167.84% 52.05% 268.1% 70.55%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 6,135,944 6,192,973 6,244,376 6,046,056 6,108,075 6,174,619 6,174,619 6,174,619
Announcement Date 3/25/22 3/24/23 3/22/24 3/21/25 3/26/26 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E -39.3x 23.4x
PBR 2.96x 2.57x
EV / Sales 0.87x 0.72x
Yield - -

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
38
Last Close Price
72.32CNY
Average target price
93.28CNY
Spread / Average Target
+28.98%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise