Projected Income Statement: Meituan

Forecast Balance Sheet: Meituan

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 -37,036 -57,876 -73,919 -109,991 -132,040 -109,171 -117,702 -139,488
Change - -56.27% -27.72% -48.8% -20.05% 17.32% -7.81% -18.51%
Announcement Date 3/26/21 3/25/22 3/24/23 3/22/24 3/21/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Meituan

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 11,223 9,010 5,731 6,880 10,999 12,704 13,009 14,107
Change - -19.71% -36.39% 20.03% 59.89% 15.49% 2.41% 8.44%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -2,748 -13,022 5,680 33,642 46,147 -15,853 21,403 32,894
Change - -373.95% 143.62% 492.28% 37.17% -134.35% 235.01% 53.69%
Announcement Date 3/26/21 3/25/22 3/24/23 3/22/24 3/21/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Meituan

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 4.13% -5.41% 4.42% 8.63% 14.55% -3.23% 6.65% 10.24%
EBIT Margin (%) 3.77% -12.91% -2.65% 4.85% 12.11% -6.15% 3.93% 8.36%
EBT Margin (%) 3.87% -13.16% -3.07% 5.07% 11.25% -6.52% 5.18% 7.94%
Net margin (%) 4.1% -13.14% -3.04% 5.01% 10.61% -6.45% 4.65% 7.12%
FCF margin (%) -2.39% -7.27% 2.58% 12.16% 13.67% -4.32% 5.14% 6.87%
FCF / Net Income (%) -58.36% 55.32% -84.95% 242.8% 128.88% 66.97% 110.37% 96.49%

Profitability

        
ROA 3.15% -11.56% -2.76% 5.16% 11.6% -6.83% 4.3% 8.75%
ROE 4.96% -21.08% -5.26% 9.87% 22.06% -12.66% 6.94% 18.04%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 9.78% 5.03% 2.61% 2.49% 3.26% 3.46% 3.12% 2.95%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 236.87% -92.95% 58.94% 28.81% 22.39% -107.13% 46.95% 28.79%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -408.46% -69.19% 100.9% 20.45% 23.84% -80.13% 60.78% 42.89%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 1.412 -0.6644 1.854 6.432 9.179 -2.15 5.401 9.066
Change - -147.07% 379.05% 246.91% 42.72% -123.42% 351.22% 67.87%
Dividend per Share 1 - - - - - - - -
Change - - - - - - - -
Book Value Per Share 1 16.71 20.8 20.79 24.33 28.19 25.23 28.28 34.14
Change - 24.48% -0.06% 17.04% 15.84% -10.5% 12.11% 20.7%
EPS 1 0.78 -3.9 -1.09 2.11 5.66 -3.782 3.681 5.736
Change - -600% 72.05% 293.58% 168.25% -166.82% 197.34% 55.8%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 5,883,965 6,135,944 6,192,973 6,244,376 6,046,056 6,108,075 6,108,075 6,108,075
Announcement Date 3/26/21 3/25/22 3/24/23 3/22/24 3/21/25 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio -24x 24.7x
PBR 3.6x 3.21x
EV / Sales 1.21x 1.05x
Yield - -
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
A
More Ratings
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
43
Last Close Price
90.77CNY
Average target price
107.16CNY
Spread / Average Target
+18.06%
Consensus

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise