WOLFSBURG (dpa-AFX) - Falling sales figures, especially for electric cars, are causing problems for the industry. Due to a lack of buyers, the plants are barely working to capacity, and Audi is now putting an entire plant to the test for the first time. Others could follow. "Everyone has to think about how much production they need and where these production capacities can be set up at the most competitive costs possible," says industry expert Stefan Bratzel from the Center of Automotive Management (CAM) in Bergisch Gladbach.

Plants only operating at two-thirds capacity

On average, the German plants of Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes & Co. were only running at just over two-thirds capacity last year. This is the result of an analysis by data specialist Marklines for the German Press Agency. According to the data, all locations together were able to deliver 6.2 million cars per year. The last time this figure was almost reached was in 2011, when almost 5.9 million cars were built in Germany. In 2023, it was just over 4.1 million. According to the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), three quarters of these were exported.

This is significantly more than in the weak previous years, when the pandemic and parts shortages pushed production down to 3.1 million at times. But still less than the 4.7 million achieved in the last pre-coronavirus year of 2019. And in the first half of 2024, things were already on the decline again. According to the VDA, 2.1 million cars were produced in Germany between January and June, nine percent fewer than in the same period in 2023.

The marklines figures show major differences between the locations. While Porsche Stuttgart was almost fully utilized in 2023 at almost 100 percent and Audi Ingolstadt and BMW Munich performed only slightly worse at almost 90 percent, Opel Eisenach did not even reach 30 percent of its possible capacity. Several large sites were only operating at around half capacity, including the main VW and Mercedes-Benz plants in Wolfsburg and Sindelfingen. The Tesla plant in Grünheide near Berlin, which will open in 2022, also only managed 51%.

First plant closures since 2014

The first car manufacturers are taking action. Ford had already announced in 2022 that it would close its plant in Saarlouis at the end of 2025. At Audi, Brussels is now on the brink. The same fate could befall the Transparent Factory in Dresden, where VW is now openly considering a subsequent use without vehicle production. The last time a large car plant was closed in Germany was ten years ago: Opel shut down its Bochum site in 2014.

Elsewhere, production is at least being scaled back: Audi cut the expensive night shifts in Ingolstadt and Neckarsulm, as did Volkswagen in Wolfsburg, Emden and Zwickau. A quarter of capacity has been lost as a result. The planned construction of an additional e-car factory at VW's headquarters in Wolfsburg was canceled altogether. At Opel's Kaiserslautern site, plans for a new battery factory have been put on ice.

Electric locations particularly affected

However, Constantin Gall from the auditing and consulting firm EY does not want to talk about a general overcapacity. It does exist, "but only selectively" - especially at the pure e-car locations. "Because there simply isn't the demand that was once forecast." The situation is quite different in some cases for combustion engines. There are still long delivery times for some popular models in the premium segment. "We have everything but overcapacity."

However, the switch to electric could prove fatal for some traditional locations. Not every site can be converted with reasonable effort, says Gall. "Some old plants will simply have to be closed because it doesn't make sense to invest heavily in them again." In addition, most manufacturers can also use the conversion to further automate and increase output. "It will then probably be possible to produce more at the existing sites. With the result that the sheer number of plants will decrease."

No more growth

The EY expert does not expect the weak demand to end any time soon. "A significant increase in demand is certainly not to be expected in the next 24 to 36 months," said Gall. "In the medium term, we will have overcapacity in the system."

And there will be hardly any growth in Europe in the long term either, added industry expert Bratzel. "The European market is essentially a saturated market. There will certainly not be high volume growth." More than a return to the pre-corona level of 2019 is hardly to be expected. "And it will probably remain at this level for the next ten years."

However, Bratzel does not see any danger of e-car plants with poor capacity utilization being closed down. "That would also be madness." After all, the capacities that have only just been created will be needed as soon as demand for electric cars picks up again. "You have to ask yourself whether you simply have to get through this critical market phase now."/fjo/DP/zb