BMW is playing the stability card. Contrary to its competitors, the Bavarian manufacturer is maintaining its forecasts for 2025, banking on an easing of tariffs from July onwards. While Mercedes-Benz, Ford, and Stellantis are not providing any outlook, BMW forecasts an operating margin of 5% to 7% for its automotive division, with pre-tax earnings in line with their level last year. The group is even optimistic about a gradual easing of the tariff situation, while remaining cautious about risks relating to the supply chain. The automotive division generated Q1 operating profit of €2.02bn, above expectations, despite its margin falling to 6.9%.

However, analyst Adrien Brasey of Alpha Value sees a different outlook: "We expect a different scenario, with prolonged tariffs and a slowdown in vehicle demand, particularly in North America and Europe. As a result, we believe there is still downside risk for BMW shares. However, this may already be partially factored in: BMW is forecasting stable EBT, while the consensus expects a decline. On the other hand, the consensus still expects an automotive margin of 6.5%, at the upper end of the 5-7% forecast range".