BASF shares rose in Frankfurt on Monday, despite the German chemical group lowering its earnings estimates for FY 2025 on Friday evening after trading, amid economic and geopolitical uncertainties deemed unfavourable for its businesses.

The stock was up over 3% in the first hour of trading, posting the strongest rise on the DAX index, which was down 0.7% at the same time.

BASF announced on Friday that it now expects operating profit (EBITDA) before special items of between €7.3bn and €7.7bn in 2025, compared with a previous forecast of between €8bn and €8.4bn.

In its press release, the group, whose products are used in both the automotive and agricultural industries, said it expects global economic growth to be lower than expected this year due to the new US tariff regime and the recent appreciation of the euro.

In a reaction note, Deutsche Bank analysts pointed out, however, that the market had expected cautious forecasts from the company, as the market consensus for EBITDA before special items for 2025 was already at €7.6bn.

'At first glance, the business mix also looks pretty good, with high-value-added businesses performing better than lower-margin businesses, the broker said.

For Q2 to 30 June, BASF expects EBITDA before special items of €1.77bn, down from €1.96bn reported for the same period in 2024, but in line with consensus.

Our annual forecasts were already at the lower end of the new range announced for EBITDA (at €7.3bn) for 2025, so we are not changing our estimates,  Deutsche Bank said, which said is maintaining its "buy" rating on the stock with a target price of €52.

Jefferies made the same observation, noting that it had been targeting annual EBITDA of around €7.2bn before the group revised its forecasts downwards. The US broker has issued a "hold" recommendation with a target price of €47, representing 7% upside potential.


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