The iPhone, Apple's flagship product, which accounts for just over half of the group's sales, is struggling to attract new customers. Since the disappearance of the Home button in 2017, the brand has been releasing new smartphones without any major innovations, as it used to do in the past.

Steve Jobs in 2007 during the presentation of the first iPhone. The Home button was then emblematic of the device, located in the center, below the screen.

At the same time, Tim Cook, the iconic CEO who succeeded Steve Jobs in 2011, has repeatedly emphasized his enthusiasm for the future of the Apple brand. Last February, for example, during the tech giant's annual results conference, he said: "I've never been more optimistic about our product lineup."

It's true that Apple still has some strong arguments to make: it is diversifying and continuing to innovate. The Vision Pro virtual reality headset offers unprecedented experiences. However, its cost makes it a product reserved for a niche market (starting at $3,999). The latest generations of iPhones have not been lacking in new features. These include the growing capabilities of internal chip systems, developments in the use of new materials such as titanium, continuous improvements to the camera, and the proliferation of models within each product category to meet the needs of a diverse customer base. In MacBook computers and iPad tablets, Apple has demonstrated its expertise by improving performance and achieving remarkable feats in terms of device thinness. But it is undoubtedly in the Services segment (App Store, Apple Music, Apple TV, Apple Pay, AppleCare, etc.) that the most progress has been made. Since 2016, services have been the second largest component of revenue (behind iPhones). These services have prevented a decline in revenue since 2021.

More broadly, the Cupertino-based company continues to benefit from its brand power and global ecosystem. As a general rule, people don't buy the brand's products because they are better than those of its competitors. Owning an Apple product is an act of joining a world that embodies certain values such as elegant design and belonging to a certain social class. Through its devices, Apple sells an identity, a cultural anchor, indeed, almost a lifestyle.

Nevertheless, over the past two years, rapid progress in artificial intelligence has profoundly shaped our digital environment. ChatGPT, from OpenAI, now has some 400 million weekly users and can generate images from simple text descriptions. Many website creation software programs promote AI-assisted help, such as Ionos, which is heavily marketed on French television channels. ElevenLabs enables users to create synthetic voices that are astonishingly realistic. Use cases are multiplying at a dizzying speed, and artificial intelligence is gradually becoming established in every link of the digital chain.

A lack of innovation that is becoming increasingly difficult to bear

In its press releases, conferences, and presentations, Apple highlights its advances in AI. Dubbed "Apple Intelligence," the new tools adapt to the personal context and provide assistance with writing and expression. But Apple has not developed an in-house tool as it usually does. The integrated technology is OpenAI's ChatGPT. More broadly, observers and users worldwide are hoping for innovations similar to those achieved in the past.

There was a time when every new iPhone and every Apple product redefined the standards of technological innovation. Today, the dynamic has changed: the brand has reached a certain maturity. This change does not mean that Apple is running out of steam, as it continues to make gradual improvements. But it is perhaps this discreet evolution that fuels the impression of a slight lag. The "wow" effect is no longer there, at least for now; although innovation continues. It manifests itself less in spectacular effects than in continuous improvements. Today, Apple refines its products rather than reinvents them.

However, at a time when technology is moving at breakneck speed, the needs of tomorrow's consumers could be very different from those of today. Eddy Cue, one of Tim Cook's right-hand men, said: "You may not need an iPhone in 10 years' time." The idea that a competitor could bring something truly groundbreaking to the market, as Apple did in the past with the Macintosh—the first widely marketed machine with an intuitive interface accessible to non-techies—and the iPhone—which invented the modern smartphone—has not been ruled out. It may even be underway with, for example, Jony Ive's start-up io. This man was the central figure in Apple's design for over 20 years. His company io has just been bought by OpenAI for $6.5bn. The operation aims to develop an AI-based device for widespread use.

In addition to these uncertainties, there are other issues that could weigh on future momentum. Regulators are increasingly pressing the company to change its App Store practices. On the other hand, an antitrust judge could well put an end to the $20bn that Alphabet spends to make Google the default search engine. In the US, a law is likely to be passed to verify the age of users. In the supply chain, Apple remains heavily dependent on China and therefore on the possible effects of tariffs. The final assembly of many devices has already been moved to India, but a large proportion of the components still come from China. Finally, there are Donald Trump's demands and threats to relocate iPhone production to the US or face an additional 25% tax.

Of course, there is no question of Apple suffering the same fate as Nokia or BlackBerry. With a market capitalization that is still close to $2.9 trillion, the company remains firmly at the top. However, in the coming quarters and years, Apple will probably have to do more. If disruptive innovation continues to evolve into continuous optimization, the future may lie more in services than in the sale of technology products. Unless Apple achieves breakthroughs with new devices such as virtual reality headsets, connected glasses, hearing aids with Airpods, or even other objects that technology may reveal. Only time will tell.