Financials Alibaba Group Holding Limited

Equities

BABA

US01609W1027

Internet Services

Market Closed - Nyse Other stock markets 16:02:05 2024-04-26 EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
75.55 ^USD	+0.59%		+9.38%	-2.53%

04-24	Chinese Internet Companies Lead the Way in AI Revolution	MT
04-24	Mingxing Electric Power's Chairman Resigns	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	3,173,969	3,695,673	4,027,830	1,854,401	1,800,338	1,332,326	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	3,118,293	3,490,600	3,845,890	1,805,847	1,768,606	1,071,176	967,807	852,429
P/E ratio	36.7 x	24.6 x	27.2 x	30.3 x	25.6 x	14.2 x	12 x	10.4 x
Yield	-	-	-	-	-	1.34%	1.38%	1.45%
Capitalization / Revenue	8.42 x	7.25 x	5.62 x	2.17 x	2.07 x	1.41 x	1.31 x	1.22 x
EV / Revenue	8.27 x	6.85 x	5.36 x	2.12 x	2.04 x	1.14 x	0.95 x	0.78 x
EV / EBITDA	25.6 x	22.1 x	19.5 x	11.4 x	10.1 x	5.52 x	4.8 x	3.86 x
EV / FCF	29.8 x	24.4 x	20 x	18.3 x	10.3 x	6.37 x	5.66 x	4.03 x
FCF Yield	3.35%	4.1%	5%	5.48%	9.71%	15.7%	17.7%	24.8%
Price to Book	6.42 x	4.79 x	4.35 x	1.98 x	1.87 x	1.31 x	1.17 x	1.05 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	2,592,180	2,683,752	2,711,119	2,687,500	2,565,752	2,433,625	-	-
Reference price ²	1,224	1,377	1,486	690.0	701.7	547.5	547.5	547.5
Announcement Date	19-05-15	20-05-22	21-05-13	22-05-26	23-05-18	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	376,844	509,711	717,289	853,062	868,687	943,255	1,013,503	1,092,949
EBITDA ¹	121,943	157,659	196,842	158,205	175,710	194,043	201,821	220,923
EBIT ¹	57,084	91,430	89,678	69,638	100,351	120,159	142,532	159,892
Operating Margin	15.15%	17.94%	12.5%	8.16%	11.55%	12.74%	14.06%	14.63%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	96,221	166,645	165,578	59,550	89,185	120,662	141,772	161,896
Net income ¹	87,600	149,263	150,308	61,959	72,509	95,944	116,062	133,295
Net margin	23.25%	29.28%	20.96%	7.26%	8.35%	10.17%	11.45%	12.2%
EPS ²	33.38	55.93	54.70	22.74	27.46	38.53	45.81	52.59
Free Cash Flow ¹	104,478	143,109	192,263	98,874	171,663	168,175	171,040	211,780
FCF margin	27.72%	28.08%	26.8%	11.59%	19.76%	17.83%	16.88%	19.38%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	85.68%	90.77%	97.67%	62.5%	97.7%	86.67%	84.75%	95.86%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	119.27%	95.88%	127.91%	159.58%	236.75%	175.28%	147.37%	158.88%
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	-	7.329	7.549	7.960
Announcement Date	19-05-15	20-05-22	21-05-13	22-05-26	23-05-18	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: Marzo	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Net sales ¹	200,690	242,580	204,052	205,555	207,176	247,756	208,200	455,956	234,156	224,790	260,348	219,897	245,139	241,812	281,097	235,670
EBITDA ¹	34,840	51,364	23,373	41,114	43,311	59,162	32,123	-	52,052	49,237	59,572	34,045	51,624	50,384	62,655	41,472
EBIT ¹	15,006	7,068	16,717	24,943	25,137	35,031	15,240	50,271	42,490	33,584	22,511	20,387	37,198	38,382	44,043	26,853
Operating Margin	7.48%	2.91%	8.19%	12.13%	12.13%	14.14%	7.32%	11.03%	18.15%	14.94%	8.65%	9.27%	15.17%	15.87%	15.67%	11.39%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	3,946	29,326	-19,560	29,177	-15,759	50,459	25,308	-	36,172	38,257	17,318	21,891	37,330	40,578	45,517	35,224
Net income ¹	5,367	20,429	-16,241	22,739	-20,561	46,815	23,516	-	34,332	27,706	14,433	17,557	27,331	28,834	35,270	20,222
Net margin	2.67%	8.42%	-7.96%	11.06%	-9.92%	18.9%	11.29%	-	14.66%	12.33%	5.54%	7.98%	11.15%	11.92%	12.55%	8.58%
EPS ²	1.970	7.510	-6.070	8.510	-7.770	17.91	9.000	-	13.30	10.77	5.650	6.555	12.60	12.38	12.80	10.01
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	3.555	3.483
Announcement Date	21-11-18	22-02-24	22-05-26	22-08-04	22-11-17	23-02-23	23-05-18	23-05-18	23-08-10	23-11-16	24-02-07	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net Cash position ¹	55,676	205,073	181,940	48,554	31,732	261,150	364,519	479,897
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Free Cash Flow ¹	104,478	143,109	192,263	98,874	171,663	168,175	171,040	211,780
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	20.4%	23.9%	17.8%	15.2%	7.48%	9.23%	10.2%	10.2%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	10.4%	13.1%	10%	8.48%	4.21%	5.99%	6.19%	6.3%
Assets ¹	841,100	1,139,064	1,501,601	730,861	1,724,311	1,602,351	1,875,428	2,115,067
Book Value Per Share ²	191.0	288.0	341.0	348.0	375.0	417.0	470.0	523.0
Cash Flow per Share ²	57.60	67.70	84.40	52.40	75.60	54.60	70.10	69.90
Capex ¹	46,497	37,498	39,523	42,028	30,373	39,996	42,374	46,356
Capex / Sales	12.34%	7.36%	5.51%	4.93%	3.5%	4.24%	4.18%	4.24%
Announcement Date	19-05-15	20-05-22	21-05-13	22-05-26	23-05-18	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Alibaba Group Holding Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

C-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

547.5 CNY

Average target price

760 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+38.81%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector E-commerce & Auction Services

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E-commerce & Auction Services