Financials Alibaba Group Holding Limited

Equities

BABA

US01609W1027

Internet Services

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Projected Income Statement: Alibaba Group Holding Limited

income-statement-evolution-chart ALIBABA-GROUP-HOLDING-LIM

Fiscal Period: March	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net sales ¹	509,711	717,289	853,062	868,687	941,168	999,880	1,085,983	1,169,684
Change	-	40.72%	18.93%	1.83%	8.34%	6.24%	8.61%	7.71%
EBITDA ¹	157,659	196,842	158,205	175,710	191,668	197,040	212,636	233,562
Change	-	24.85%	-19.63%	11.06%	9.08%	2.8%	7.92%	9.84%
EBIT ¹	91,430	89,678	69,638	100,351	113,350	139,031	154,035	171,193
Change	-	-1.92%	-22.35%	44.1%	12.95%	22.66%	10.79%	11.14%
Interest Paid ¹	-5,180	-4,476	-4,909	-5,918	-7,947	-8,769	-8,811	-8,381
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	166,645	165,578	59,550	89,185	101,596	142,685	152,776	168,689
Change	-	-0.64%	-64.04%	49.76%	13.92%	40.44%	7.07%	10.42%
Net income ¹	149,263	150,308	61,959	72,509	79,741	122,677	129,279	147,879
Change	-	0.7%	-58.78%	17.03%	9.97%	53.84%	5.38%	14.39%
Announcement Date	5/22/20	5/13/21	5/26/22	5/18/23	5/14/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Fiscal Period: March	2020 Q3	2020 Q4	2021 Q1	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4	2026 Q1	2026 Q2	2026 Q3	2026 Q4	2027 Q1	2027 Q2
Net sales ¹	161,456	114,314	153,751	155,059	221,084	187,395	205,740	200,690	242,580	204,052	205,555	207,176	247,756	208,200	234,156	224,790	260,348	221,874	243,236	236,503	278,386	240,557	261,231	256,218	303,241	260,709	282,804	280,698
Change	-	-29.2%	34.5%	0.85%	42.58%	-15.24%	9.79%	-2.45%	20.87%	-15.88%	0.74%	0.79%	19.59%	-15.97%	12.47%	-4%	15.82%	-14.78%	9.63%	-2.77%	17.71%	-13.59%	8.59%	-1.92%	18.35%	-14.03%	8.48%	-0.74%
EBITDA ¹	55,880	25,440	51,039	47,525	68,380	29,898	48,628	34,840	51,364	23,373	41,114	43,311	59,162	32,123	52,052	49,237	59,572	30,807	51,161	47,327	60,466	40,333	54,760	51,585	69,137	46,701	61,573	58,351
Change	-	-54.47%	100.62%	-6.88%	43.88%	-56.28%	62.65%	-28.35%	47.43%	-54.5%	75.9%	5.34%	36.6%	-45.7%	62.04%	-5.41%	20.99%	-48.29%	66.07%	-7.49%	27.76%	-33.3%	35.77%	-5.8%	34.03%	-32.45%	31.85%	-5.23%
EBIT ¹	39,560	7,131	34,705	13,634	49,002	-7,663	30,847	15,006	7,068	16,717	24,943	25,137	35,031	15,240	42,490	33,584	22,511	14,765	35,989	35,246	45,661	23,680	42,630	37,692	50,118	32,471	48,683	45,335
Change	-	-81.97%	386.68%	-60.71%	259.41%	-	-	-51.35%	-52.9%	136.52%	49.21%	0.78%	39.36%	-56.5%	178.81%	-20.96%	-32.97%	-34.41%	143.75%	-2.06%	29.55%	-48.14%	80.03%	-11.58%	32.97%	-35.21%	49.93%	-6.88%
Charge d'intérêts ¹	-1,309	-1,165	-1,123	-1,101	-1,092	-1,160	-1,267	-1,267	-1,186	-1,189	-1,244	-1,388	-1,550	-1,736	-1,784	-1,854	-2,132	-2,177	-2,188	-2,427	-2,239	-2,164	-2,100	-2,100	-2,100	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	56,374	-569	57,212	24,191	90,772	-6,597	45,838	3,946	29,326	-19,560	29,177	-15,759	50,459	25,308	36,172	38,257	17,318	9,849	32,580	49,948	46,131	25,528	42,021	35,035	47,107	-	-	-
Change	-	-	-	-57.72%	275.23%	-	-	-91.39%	643.18%	-	-	-	-	-49.84%	42.93%	5.76%	-54.73%	-43.13%	230.8%	53.31%	-7.64%	-44.66%	64.61%	-16.63%	34.46%	-100%	-	-
Net income ¹	52,309	3,162	47,591	28,769	79,427	-5,479	45,141	5,367	20,429	-16,241	22,739	-20,561	46,815	23,516	34,332	27,706	14,433	3,270	24,269	43,874	37,622	20,038	31,064	29,467	38,884	-	-	-
Change	-	-93.96%	1,405.09%	-39.55%	176.09%	-	-	-88.11%	280.64%	-	-	-	-	-49.77%	45.99%	-19.3%	-47.91%	-77.34%	642.17%	80.78%	-14.25%	-46.74%	55.03%	-5.14%	31.96%	-100%	-	-
Announcement Date	2/13/20	5/22/20	8/20/20	11/5/20	2/2/21	5/13/21	8/3/21	11/18/21	2/24/22	5/26/22	8/4/22	11/17/22	2/23/23	5/18/23	8/10/23	11/16/23	2/7/24	5/14/24	8/15/24	11/15/24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Fiscal Period: March	2023 S2
Net sales ¹	455,956
Change	-
EBITDA	-
Change	-
EBIT ¹	50,271
Change	-
Charge d'intérêts	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-
Change	-
Net income	-
Change	-
Announcement Date	5/18/23

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Forecast Balance Sheet: Alibaba Group Holding Limited

balance-sheet-analysis-chart ALIBABA-GROUP-HOLDING-LIM

Fiscal Period: March	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net Debt ¹	-205,073	-181,940	-48,554	-31,732	-77,349	-324,134	-377,914	-431,138
Change	-	-188.72%	-126.69%	-165.35%	-343.76%	-519.05%	-216.59%	-214.08%
Announcement Date	5/22/20	5/13/21	5/26/22	5/18/23	5/14/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Alibaba Group Holding Limited

Fiscal Period: March	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
CAPEX ¹	37,498	39,523	42,028	30,373	27,579	48,730	50,102	45,942
Change	-	5.4%	6.34%	-27.73%	-9.2%	76.69%	2.81%	-8.3%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ¹	143,109	192,263	98,874	171,663	156,210	136,924	151,959	171,329
Change	-	34.35%	-48.57%	73.62%	-9%	-12.35%	10.98%	12.75%
Announcement Date	5/22/20	5/13/21	5/26/22	5/18/23	5/14/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Alibaba Group Holding Limited

Fiscal Period: March	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%)	30.93%	27.44%	18.55%	20.23%	20.36%	19.71%	19.58%	19.97%
EBIT Margin (%)	17.94%	12.5%	8.16%	11.55%	12.04%	13.9%	14.18%	14.64%
EBT Margin (%)	32.69%	23.08%	6.98%	10.27%	10.79%	14.27%	14.07%	14.42%
Net margin (%)	29.28%	20.96%	7.26%	8.35%	8.47%	12.27%	11.9%	12.64%
FCF margin (%)	28.08%	26.8%	11.59%	19.76%	16.6%	13.69%	13.99%	14.65%
FCF / Net Income (%)	95.88%	127.91%	159.58%	236.75%	195.9%	111.61%	117.54%	115.86%
Profitability
ROA	13.1%	10.01%	8.48%	4.21%	9%	6.73%	6.74%	6.59%
ROE	23.93%	17.76%	15.22%	7.48%	16.03%	11.21%	11.01%	11.27%
Financial Health
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Debt / Free cash flow	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Capital Intensity
CAPEX / Current Assets (%)	7.36%	5.51%	4.93%	3.5%	2.93%	4.87%	4.61%	3.93%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%)	23.78%	20.08%	26.57%	17.29%	14.39%	24.73%	23.56%	19.67%
CAPEX / FCF (%)	26.2%	20.56%	42.51%	17.69%	17.66%	35.59%	32.97%	26.82%
Items per share
Cash flow per share ¹	67.69	84.35	52.43	75.65	71.53	68.42	84.75	83.62
Change	-	24.61%	-37.85%	44.29%	-5.44%	-4.36%	23.88%	-1.34%
Dividend per Share ¹	-	-	-	-	12.02	7.375	8.542	8.029
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-38.66%	15.84%	-6.01%
Book Value Per Share ¹	287.6	341.2	348.3	374.8	386.5	446.9	502.7	552.2
Change	-	18.64%	2.1%	7.6%	3.12%	15.63%	12.49%	9.85%
EPS ¹	55.93	54.7	22.74	27.46	31.24	50.21	54.04	62.02
Change	-	-2.2%	-58.43%	20.76%	13.77%	60.74%	7.63%	14.76%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	2,683,752	2,711,119	2,687,500	2,565,752	2,506,837	2,271,485	2,271,485	2,271,485
Announcement Date	5/22/20	5/13/21	5/26/22	5/18/23	5/14/24	-	-	-