U.S., Ukraine Minerals Deal Seeks to Smooth -2-

0931 ET - Crude futures are modestly lower heading into the weekend with the OPEC+ meeting Monday on most minds. "We expect pushbacks from member countries of OPEC+ to the apparent proposed production increase, such that oil prices hang in the balance," Citi analysts say in a note. Brent could hold in the high $50s with a further acceleration of 500,000 barrels a day, Citi says, while bigger increases or an eventual lifting of Iranian sanctions could drop the price to around $50. Citi's "bull case" of Brent in $70s entails no additional increase, "or even a freeze," and harsher sanctions enforcement. "A market more conditioned to thinking of downside could well be surprised if there is a turnaround." Brent is off 0.3% at $61.93 a barrel and WTI is down 0.4% at $58.99. ([e-mail])

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Base Metal Prices Rise; Copper Gains on Easing US-China Tensions -- Market Talk

1116 GMT - Base metal prices rise, with LME three-month copper up 1.5% at $9,386.50 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum up 0.9% at $2,430.50 a ton. Copper prices are rising for the second straight session after China said it is evaluating trade talks with the U.S., ING analysts say in a note. This has raised market optimism for a reduction in tariffs between the world's two largest economies. Base metals have been hit by President Trump's steep tariffs on China, which threatened economic growth and associated commodities demand, ING says. At the same time, copper-supply disruption risks from two major mines in Peru have also supported the price rally, ING adds. ([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Gain as Dollar Softens in Thin Trading -- Market Talk

1113 GMT - Gold futures rise in relatively thin trading as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields slide. Futures are up 1.4% at $3,268.40 a troy ounce, but are on-track for an overall weekly loss following a sharp sell-off in Thursday's session. Exchange-traded fund outflows suggest traders and investors have taken profits following gold's 21% rally year-to-date, SP Angel analysts say in a note. Cooling tensions between China and the U.S. are reducing gold's appeal, alongside President Trump's announcement that he isn't looking to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, SP Angel says. Focus now turns to U.S. employment data due later Friday. If the numbers come in weaker-than-expected, it will raise optimism for Fed interest rate cuts--a boon for non-interest bearing bullion. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Falls on Softer Demand -- Market Talk

1015 GMT - Palm oil fell after the Asian session. Prices were pressured by a slowdown in global demand and rising production levels from Malaysia and Indonesia, says Abdul Hameed, director of sales at Pakistan-based Manzoor Trading. April's export figures from both countries were also weaker than expected, further affecting market sentiment, coupled with a stronger ringgit, which made exports less attractive to international buyers, Hameed adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for July delivery fell MYR31 to MYR3,880 a ton. ([e-mail])

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Copper Prices Rise on Tighter Supplies But Risks to Demand Loom -- Market Talk

0904 GMT - Base metal prices rise, with LME three-month copper up 1.5% at $9,388.0 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum up 1% at $2,432.50 a ton. Physical signs including premiums, timespreads and inventories outside the U.S. are pointing to copper market tightness as the delayed effect of diverting metal to the U.S. ahead of tariffs filters through, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. This is keeping prices well supported, though downside demand risks are looming in the second half of the year, MS says. This reflects the effect of U.S. tariffs deteriorating the global economic backdrop, with Chinese manufacturing figures for April already showing slumping output, analysts write. A more benign tariff outcome or more Chinese fiscal stimulus may provide some offset to pressure on copper prices, MS adds. ([e-mail])

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OPEC+ Meeting Price Reaction Tied to Output Hike Scope, Messaging -- Market Talk

0838 GMT - OPEC+ is largely expected to accelerate oil output hikes for a second consecutive month in June, but the effect on prices will likely depend on the scale of the hike and the group's messaging around it, according to BMI. A larger-than-previously-planned supply increase might seem odd in the context of the global trade tensions. However, "it is arguable that, given recent price action, much of the downside is being priced in ahead of time," analysts at the Fitch Solutions unit say. Plus, seasonal demand in the next few months should support market fundamentals before trade tariffs start hurting economic growth and oil consumption, according to BMI. Brent crude and WTI are currently flat at $62.15 and $59.25 a barrel, respectively. ([e-mail])

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Gold Futures Rise on Weaker Dollar But on Track for Weekly Loss -- Market Talk

0745 GMT - Gold futures rise on a slightly weaker U.S. dollar, recouping some ground lost over the course of the week. Futures are up 1.5% at $3,269.20 a troy ounce, though they are on track to end the week 0.9% lower. Gold prices had climbed to a record of $3,509.90 an ounce on April 22, before sharply selling off as risk appetite returned to the market on hopes of easing trade tensions. That said, gold dipping as low as $3,200 an ounce makes it an attractive price for investors to start purchasing bullion, Pepperstone's Michael Brown says in a note. The bullish case for gold is still firmly intact, given the volatility of U.S. President Trump's administration and a slowing U.S. economy, Brown writes. ([e-mail])

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Oil Lifted by Trade Talk Hopes, Sanction Threats -- Market Talk

0742 GMT - Oil prices tick higher in early trade, supported by renewed hopes for U.S.-China trade negotiations and President Trump's sanction threats against Iran. Brent crude and WTI are both up 0.2% to $62.24 and $59.32 a barrel, respectively. Investor sentiment improved slightly after Beijing said it was weighing starting trade negotiations with Washington, easing concerns that a prolonged trade war could dent global economic growth and energy demand. Prices also found support after Trump said any country or entity buying Iranian oil would be immediately subject to secondary sanctions. Still, lingering worries about soft demand and an oversupplied market continue to weigh on sentiment. "All eyes are now on the upcoming OPEC+ meeting for clearer signals on future production policy and market direction," says Quasar Elizundia, research strategist at Pepperstone. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Rises, Tracking Stronger Soybean Oil, Crude Oil -- Market Talk

0245 GMT - Palm oil prices are higher in Asian trade, tracking stronger overnight soybean oil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade and higher crude-oil prices, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Higher crude oil prices are supporting CPO prices by boosting palm oil's appeal as a biofuel alternative. AmInvestment Bank sees support at 3,880 ringgit a ton and resistance at 3,975 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for July delivery is higher by 50 ringgit to 3,961 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

05-02-25 1208ET