OPENING CALL
Stock futures and bond yields fell early Wednesday, as traders awaited the October consumer prices report.
The CPI likely rose 2.6% from a year earlier-or 3.3% if volatile food and energy prices are excluded-according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.
"Of course, October figures won't tell much about the Trump effect on consumer prices. We must wait a few months before we start seeing the impact of Trump on numbers. But the higher the numbers, the lower the December cut expectations," Swissquote Bank said.
U.S. stocks are expected to be the best performing asset class in 2025, Bank of America's November global fund manager survey has found.
Post-election results show that 43% of respondents expect U.S. stocks to perform best, followed by global equities at 20% and gold at 15%.
Premarket Movers
Cava Group posted third-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street expectations and the stock rose 17%.
Mara Holdings was down 9.6% after it reported a third-quarter loss that was wider than analysts' estimates.
Natera reported a narrower-than-expected third-quarter loss on a revenue jump of 64%. The stock was up 14%.
Rivian rose 13% after Volkswagen said it plans to invest up to $5.8 billion in the electric-vehicle maker, more than the $5 billion the companies agreed to when the joint venture was announced in June.
Rocket Lab reported third-quarter sales that beat Wall Street estimates. Shares rose 28%.
Skyworks Solutions fell 6.4% after it posted fourth-quarter adjusted earnings beat Wall Street expectations and revenue that met estimates but issued guidance for its fiscal first quarter that missed forecasts.
Spirit Airlines dropped 61% after The Wall Street Journal reported the airline was preparing to file for bankruptcy protection after merger talks with Frontier Airlines broke down.
Spotify rose 6.3% after it reported higher third-quarter revenue and earnings.
Tesla rose 3%. It was announced that Elon Musk was appointed by President-elect Donald Trump, along with biotech company founder Vivek Ramaswamy, to lead the "Department of Government Efficiency."
ZoomInfo was down 16% after it posted third-quarter revenue that beat analysts' estimates but fell 3.3% from a year earlier.
Postmarket Movers
Progyny said consumer habits changed during the third quarter, prompting it to cut to its full-year outlook and guide for a weaker-than-expected fourth quarter. Shares fell 8%.
Watch For:
CPI for October; Cisco Systems earnings
Today's Headlines/Must Reads:
-Secret Ballot for Leader Tests GOP Senators in New Trump Era
-Trump Is Recruiting a Team of China Hawks. So Why Is Beijing Relieved?
-The Siblings Behind RFK Jr.'s 'Make America Healthy Again' Campaign
MARKET WRAPS
Forex:
The dollar was slightly firmer in European trade as investors look ahead to the inflation data for clues on the Fed's interest-rate cut cycle.
UniCredit Research said any evidence of a pickup in headline inflation amid steady core inflation might boost the dollar further.
"By contrast, signs that disinflationary pressure in the U.S. continues are unlikely to significantly dent the underlying strength of the dollar."
The dollar is expected to outperform in 2025 after Trump's election victory, according to Bank of America's November global fund manager survey.
The survey said 45% of post-election respondents expect the dollar to outperform.
The euro hit a one-year low against the dollar as interest-rate differentials move further against the exchange rate, ING said, with markets "doubling down" on expectations that the European Central Bank will slash rates more than the Fed.
That comes as Donald Trump's proposed tariffs are expected to hurt eurozone growth, ING said. However, markets are still likely underpricing the chance of the ECB cutting rates by a larger 50 basis points in December.
The euro could extend its losses if the inflation data show core inflation remained sticky in October, ING added.
Sterling looks vulnerable to a potential repricing of the market's cautious interest-rate cut expectations for the Bank of England, ING said.
"Markets are pricing little to no chance of a cut in December, and only 50 basis points in total by September 2025."
The risks remain skewed toward the market pricing in further rate cuts. However, this might take time as markets will tread carefully when assessing the inflationary implications of the U.K. government's recent budget, ING said.
In the meantime, EUR/GBP could remain near 0.8300 given the euro's soft momentum.
Bitcoin has pulled back from record highs but this will likely be temporary, Zaye Capital Markets said.
The retracement might be viewed as "highly positive" for bitcoin as many investors might take advantage of this weakness by buying the cryptocurrency, it said.
"The $100,000 price target is in the spotlight, and we do think that the price could reach this level before inauguration day."
Bonds:
Any upside surprise in the CPI data could add further impetus to a widening of the Treasury-Bund yield spread, Citi said.
Trump's victory creates asymmetric hawkish risk around the data, although the spillover to Europe may be somewhat reduced post-election, Citi added.
Trump's policies are widely expected to be inflationary, likely keeping Treasury yields elevated and slowing the pace of interest-rate cuts by the Fed.
Jefferies is long in Bunds but expects 10-year yields to trade in a range of 2.20%-2.50%, adding that it would remove its long position if yields reached 2.20%.
For 10-year Treasury yields, Jefferies expects a range of 4.20%-4.50%.
"The bias would be to use any selloffs to buy duration."
Energy:
Oil prices rose on signs of supply tightness but remained near two-week lows after OPEC cut its demand-growth estimates once again.
"Crude oil prices edged higher as tightness in the physical market offset bearish sentiment on demand," ANZ Research said.
"Buyers in the physical market have been particularly active, with any available cargoes being snapped up quickly."
Traders will now be focusing on the U.S. inflation data and the IEA's oil-demand forecast set to be released on Thursday.
Metals:
Gold futures ticked up after a week of losses.
Market focus now turns to the U.S. CPI data and if inflation proves higher than expected, the Fed may reconsider interest rate cuts, pressuring gold further downwards, XS.com said.
Base metals were weaker again, with Citi lowering its near-term, three-month price estimate for copper to $8,500 a ton from $9,500 on tariffs and China demand fears.
Likely tariff hikes under Trump and weaker-than-expected Chinese stimulus detail have weighed on the Citi's expectations for a global manufacturing recovery through 2025.
Copper positioning from traders remains significantly higher than underlying manufacturing sentiment, Citi added.
This is difficult to justify and is vulnerable to further unwinding by the end of the year, given heightened uncertainty.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Blackstone's New Fund for the Rich Is Looking Just About Everywhere for Deals
Blackstone wants to make private equity a bigger part of wealthy investors' portfolios. That is pushing one of its new funds to cast a wider net for deals-and open itself up to more risks.
The firm's private-equity fund for the rich has attracted $6 billion since launching in January, returning 9.2% through September. Much of that growth has come from investing in the same array of deals as Blackstone's traditional private-equity funds for institutional investors. But another portion has come from the fund striking out on its own for different types of deals, such as stakes in companies controlled by other private-equity firms.
Jeff Bezos Sells $1.2 Billion in Amazon Stock, Bringing His November Sales to Nearly $3 Billion
Jeff Bezos continues to sell Amazon stock. The Amazon founder sold $1.2 billion worth of stock on Friday and Monday, bringing his November sales to $2.7 billion. Since July, he's sold $4.4 billion.
All of the sales are part of pre-announced trading plans. Like many company founders and other large shareholders, Bezos regularly files plans for his intention to sell shares of company stock through so-called 10b5-1 plans.
Former Walmart Executive's Startup to Buy Grubhub
Wonder, a food-delivery startup led by former Walmart executive Marc Lore, agreed Wednesday to buy Grubhub from Europe's Just Eat Takeaway, in a deal that values the business at $650 million, including debt.
7-Eleven Owner Gets Buyout Offer From Founder's Son
The son of the founder of the 7-Eleven convenience-store chain has proposed a buyout of the chain's holding company, the latest twist in a global standoff between the Japanese retail giant and the Canadian owner of Circle K, which has proposed its own takeover deal.
Junro Ito, who is currently a vice president at 7-Eleven owner Seven & i Holdings, is the son of Masatoshi Ito, who built 7-Eleven into one of the world's biggest and best-known convenience-store brands. Seven & i said he and an affiliated firm made the proposal, but didn't provide details.
Donald Trump Tells Allies He Wants Robert Lighthizer as His Trade Czar
President-elect Donald Trump has told allies that he wants his former U.S. trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, as the administration's trade czar, according to people familiar with the matter.
Lighthizer is a key adviser to Trump and helped implement his tariff policies during his first term in office.
Trump Names Fox News Host Pete Hegseth to Head Pentagon, John Ratcliffe for CIA
President-elect Donald Trump has named Pete Hegseth, an Army veteran and Fox News host, as his choice for secretary of defense and John Ratcliffe, a hawkish former House lawmaker, to lead the Central Intelligence Agency, placing loyalists in two key national security positions.
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11-13-24 0611ET