After the strong end to 2023 with substantial stock market gains in both November and December, the new year began with lower prices in January. However, the market recovered quickly with gains in February-June. This was followed by a mixed monthly trend for a few months, ending with a falling index in October-December. The strongest month was February, when the OMXS30 index rose by 4.1 percent. The worst month was October, which fell 3.2 percent.
The focus this year was on central banks, which, after several years of raising key interest rates to counteract rising inflation, felt that it was time to start the interest rate cut cycle in light of significantly reduced inflationary pressure.
The Riksbank cut its policy rate as early as May, the ECB followed suit in June, while the Bank of England and the Fed began their cuts in August and September respectively. Market expectations are that policy rates will be cut further in 2025.
On the geopolitical front, the Ukraine war remained in focus alongside the escalating situation in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas. Lurking in the background is Israel's arch-enemy Iran, which in April fired several hundred missiles and drones directly at Israel from its own territory for the first time. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria in early December has further fuelled unrest in the region.
The major event of the fall was Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. In addition, the Republicans took control of both chambers of the US Congress, which will give them greater opportunities to push through their policies. Issues close to Trump's heart are trade policy (raising tariffs against the rest of the world) and fiscal policy (cutting taxes), as well as stricter immigration policy.
Perhaps the most important issue in the short term, however, is the US stance on the Ukraine war, where the US has played a supporting role to Ukraine. Trump has said he wants to end the war as soon as possible. Donald Trump will take office on January 20.
Index development since 1986 in the attached table.
Table: OMXS30 index | |||||
Year | Price | Change, % | Highest, % | Lowest, % | Comment (Finwire) |
2024 | 2 483,12 | 3,63% | 10,59% | -4,60% | Leading central banks initiated rate cut cycle |
2023 | 2 396,07 | 17,26% | 17,61% | -0,32% | Signs that inflation is falling back, rising hopes that the interest rate peak has been reached |
2022 | 2 043,40 | -15,55% | 1,95% | -26,36% | Ukrainian war, sharply higher inflation and sharply higher key interest rates |
2021 | 2 419,73 | 29,07% | 29,36% | 0,56% | Continued stimulus, vaccination programs and hope around reopening |
2020 | 1 874,74 | 5,81% | 10,10% | -28,82% | Coronavirus pandemic, global stimulus measures |
2019 | 1 771,85 | 25,78% | 27,93% | -2,17% | Reduced economic concerns, progress in US-China trade talks |
2018 | 1 408,74 | -10,67% | 6,50% | -12,59% | Trade conflicts mainly US-China, general economic concerns, Brexit turmoil |
2017 | 1 576,94 | 3,94% | 10,85% | -1,22% | |
2016 | 1 517,20 | 4,86% | 7,38% | -14,25% | |
2015 | 1 446,82 | -1,21% | 17,44% | -6,50% | Greece debt crisis, deferring payments to the IMF, China turmoil in the economy |
2014 | 1 464,55 | 9,87% | 10,98% | -6,48% | |
2013 | 1 332,95 | 20,66% | 21,16% | 0,38% | |
2012 | 1 104,73 | 11,83% | 14,14% | -4,73% | Euro crisis, Draghi delivered "whatever it takes" |
2011 | 987,85 | -14,51% | 2,34% | -27,91% | Euro crisis (debt crisis in Europe) |
2010 | 1 155,57 | 21,42% | 22,88% | -3,40% | |
2009 | 951,72 | 43,69% | 47,49% | -10,68% | |
2008 | 662,33 | -38,75% | 0,00% | -48,52% | Financial crisis, subprime bubble in the US, Lehman collapses |
2007 | 1 081,44 | -5,74% | 15,19% | -8,78% | |
2006 | 1 147,27 | 19,51% | 20,12% | -9,36% | |
2005 | 960,01 | 29,40% | 30,31% | -2,31% | |
2004 | 741,88 | 16,59% | 18,80% | -0,44% | |
2003 | 636,29 | 29,01% | 30,59% | -12,75% | USA enters Iraq |
2002 | 493,20 | -41,74% | 3,83% | -51,09% | |
2001 | 846,49 | -19,85% | 6,98% | -41,58% | September 11th |
2000 | 1 056,11 | -11,92% | 29,10% | -14,39% | IT crashes |
1999 | 1 198,97 | 70,96% | 73,92% | -3,67% | The IT bubble is building up |
1998 | 701,31 | 16,94% | 38,14% | -17,14% | Financial crisis in Russia, Russia suspends payments |
1997 | 599,71 | 27,79% | 43,84% | -1,59% | Asia in financial crisis |
1996 | 469,29 | 38,86% | 38,88% | -4,11% | |
1995 | 337,96 | 18,83% | 30,88% | -5,05% | |
1994 | 284,40 | 3,42% | 13,94% | -7,17% | |
1993 | 274,99 | 53,08% | 56,31% | -4,60% | Real estate crisis, banking crisis |
1992 | 179,64 | 7,64% | 11,40% | -27,79% | Real estate crisis, banking crisis, Riksbank raises marginal interest rate to 500 |
1991 | 166,89 | 11,01% | 39,24% | -8,55% | Real estate crisis, banking crisis |
1990 | 150,33 | -27,89% | 11,26% | -33,55% | Real estate crisis, banking crisis |
1989 | 208,48 | 30,62% | 39,34% | -4,45% | |
1988 | 159,61 | 51,78% | 52,76% | -1,39% | |
1987 | 105,16 | -16,66% | 29,77% | -22,90% | October Crash, Black Monday |
1986 | 126,18 | ||||
Source: Bloomberg price data |