The unemployment rate fell to 3.9% in November, one of the best results in the last half century. If that strength is again present in the December data on Thursday, questions will be asked about the wisdom of a rate cut next month.

The RBA will also be processing solid retail sales growth over the last quarter of 2024, when it comes to its first policy meeting in February.

Still, inflation appears to be trending toward the desired 2% to 3% target band, which, if confirmed in crucial consumer price index data at the end of the month, should clear a path to a rate reduction, the RBA's first in the current cycle.


SOUTH KOREA


The Bank of Korea is tipped to cut its policy rate for a third straight time on Thursday to address growth worries being exacerbated by political instability surrounding impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Nineteen out of 26 economists surveyed by WSJ forecast a quarter-percentage-point cut to 2.75%. The remaining seven expect the BOK to stand pat amid caution around the won's weakness, before then cutting in February.

"Concerns around the domestic demand slowdown due to the political turmoil since President Yoon's declaration of martial law will likely be the key driver in the upcoming policy meeting," Societe Generale economists Suktae Oh and Kiyong Seong said.

Weakening growth likely justifies continued monetary policy normalization, HSBC economist Jin Choi said. The BOK board's policy focus seems to have shifted meaningfully toward supporting growth, and a still-subdued domestic demand recovery, along with slumping consumer sentiment, further backs the case for cuts, he said.

"The prospect of stable inflation around the BoK's 2% target would also allow for continued easing," Choi said.


INDONESIA


Indonesia's central bank will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, where it will likely extend a rate pause.

Recent market developments will likely prompt Bank Indonesia to prioritize rupiah stability and keep its policy rate unchanged at 6.00%, said ANZ Asia research head Khoon Goh in a report.

At its December meeting, the central bank held rates for a third straight time to support the rupiah and the economy.

Like many other emerging-market currencies, Indonesia's rupiah has struggled against a strong dollar recently, and that's likely to take priority for the central bank even as subdued inflation clears the path for easing.

Nomura's Euben Paracuelles and Nabila Amani think that the central bank's strong emphasis on foreign-exchange stability will make it tough to deliver additional rate cuts in the coming months. That's particularly true given the risk posed by U.S. President-elect Trump threatening to raise tariffs on imports and by the Federal Reserve turning less dovish.


MALAYSIA


Malaysia reports advance economic growth figures for the fourth quarter on Friday, Jan. 17 which will likely show softer momentum but still round out a strong year for the Southeast Asian economy.

The country's GDP growth is expected to have cooled to 4.7% on year from 5.3% in the third quarter, ANZ Asia research head Khoon Goh said in a report. Leading indicators of household consumption, such as consumer goods imports and household credit, grew at a slower pace in the fourth quarter, suggesting that private consumption growth eased as well, Goh said.

ANZ expects full-year growth to have averaged 5.0%, while economists at HSBC tip growth at 5.2%. That would signal a solid rebound from the 3.7% expansion seen the prior year.


INDIA


India's inflation print on Monday will likely show a largely unchanged reading in December from the prior month, which could pare back expectations of rate cuts to some extent.

Headline inflation is expected to come in at 5.45%, according to the median estimate of six economists polled by WSJ, versus November's 5.48%.

Economists will be weighing the result against advance GDP estimates signaling that growth weakened more than expected in the fiscal year ending March. That sparked some speculation that the Reserve Bank of India will cut interest rates when it meets in February but external uncertainties, rupee weakness and political factors at home will also be in focus.

Nomura sees tight monetary and credit conditions slowing GDP growth in 2025 and resulting in 100 basis points of total cuts. It tips a cooldown in inflation to 4.4% from 4.9% in 2024.


SINGAPORE


On Friday, Jan. 17, Singapore posts non-oil domestic exports data for December.

Market participants will monitor the data to see if the city-state's exports rose for a second straight month following a 4.7% decline in October.

Front-loading of shipments could give shipments a boost for the month, as companies look to get ahead of potential U.S. tariffs. Signs of strength in trade-reliant Singapore's exports would buoy hopes that it will maintain a robust pace of economic growth this year after a blockbuster performance in 2024.


Any references to days are in local times.


--Additional reporting by Ronnie Harui, Megumi Fujikawa, Amanda Lee, Kimberley Kao, Xiao Xiao, James Glynn, Kwanwoo Jun, Emese Bartha and Joshua Kirby


Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-12-25 1914ET