MUMBAI (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to stay under pressure on Thursday as the prospect of less aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks from the Ukraine-Russia conflict renewed strength in the U.S. dollar.

The one-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 84.40-84.41 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 84.4150 on Tuesday.

Indian financial markets were shut for a holiday on Wednesday.

The rupee declined to its all-time low of 84.42 on Tuesday, with likely intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) helping it avert deeper losses.

The dollar index was little changed at 106.5 after rising 0.4% on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak, as investors pared hopes for aggressive Fed rate cuts and awaited more clarity on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's policies.

The odds of a December rate cut by the Fed have declined to 52%, down from 82% last week, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions were heightened after Ukraine fired a volley of British Storm Shadow missiles into Russia on Wednesday, a day after it sent American missiles into Russian territory for the first time.

The dollar's recovery will "certainly weigh on the rupee," but the extent of weakness in the currency will yet again depend on what the RBI is willing to allow, a trader at a state-run bank said.

Persistent outflows from Indian stocks and bonds have also put pressure on the rupee, with overseas investors pulling out nearly $4 billion from local assets so far in November, adding to $11.5 billion in outflows last month.

While most regional currencies have been consolidating against the dollar this week, "we think any reprieve for Asian currencies could prove to be temporary," MUFG Bank said in a note.

KEY INDICATORS:

** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 84.52; onshore one-month forward premium at 12.50 paisa

** Dollar index at 106.54

** Brent crude futures up 0.5% at $73.1 per barrel

** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.4%

** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $240.3 million worth of Indian shares on Nov. 18

** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $160.3 million worth of Indian bonds on Nov. 18

(Reporting by Jaspreet Kalra; Editing by Sonia Cheema)

By Jaspreet Kalra