FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - After the recent record-breaking run, the stock market in Germany experienced a bumpy start to the new week. The stock market is likely to "prove susceptible to setbacks," wrote experts at DZ Bank. There are plenty of potential triggers for a downturn in sentiment. On Monday, news about the tariff dispute over the weekend is likely to weigh on prices.

Early Monday morning, broker IG indicated a decline of 0.8 percent to 24,070 points, close to the 24,000-point mark. Last Thursday, the DAX climbed to a record high of 24,639 points before correcting slightly and closing the week at 24,255 points.

On Saturday, US President Donald Trump announced that imports from the EU would be subject to a 30 percent tariff from August 1. After weeks of negotiations, an agreement to defuse the trade conflict had actually been expected soon. The EU must now find a response.

The ministers responsible for trade issues in the member states will meet in Brussels on Monday to discuss how to proceed following the announcement from Washington. Despite Trump's renewed escalation, the EU does not intend to impose counter-tariffs for the time being. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the suspension of measures would be extended until the beginning of August.

"The United States has sent us a letter outlining measures that would come into force if no negotiated solution is found," she said. "We will therefore also extend the suspension of our countermeasures until the beginning of August." At the same time, von der Leyen emphasized that the EU would not remain idle. The Commission would prepare further countermeasures in the coming weeks "so that we are best prepared," she said.

According to DZ Bank, another possible disruptive factor is the cautious monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. If the consumer price data due on Tuesday points to inflationary pressure caused by tariffs, the Fed will not be able to lower key interest rates as quickly as the market hopes.

This, in turn, could cause US government bond yields to rise, which would put additional pressure on the stock markets. Rising yields make fixed-income securities appear more attractive than risky equities.

Robert Greil, chief strategist at private bank Merck Finck, was also rather cautious in his comments. In his view, the Fed is likely to wait and see, not so much because of the current price figures, but rather because of the future inflation risks associated with Trump's new copper tariffs and possible further tariffs on other industries. In this respect, the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut key interest rates at its meeting at the end of July.

Christian Apelt of Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba) believes that the new week will be clearly dominated by economic data from the US. In his opinion, the effect of US tariffs will be felt not only in inflation data but also in retail sales figures due on Thursday.

In addition, attention will also focus on producer prices and industrial production on Wednesday and the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index on Friday. However, even after these data releases, the US economic picture is likely to remain ambiguous.

Experts disagree on what impetus the second-quarter reporting season for US companies, which begins this week, is likely to provide. This is traditionally kicked off by the major banks, so the focus on Tuesday will be on JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, among others.

Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley will follow in the middle of the week. Outside the financial sector, the pharmaceutical and medical technology group Johnson & Johnson will be in focus on Wednesday, followed by the conglomerate 3M on Friday.

Given the advance praise on the stock markets, it could be difficult to keep investors happy, Helaba expert Apelt pointed out. Together with the tariff issue, this could therefore cause the stock indices' record-breaking run to suffer a setback.

However, according to Ulrich Kater, chief economist at Dekabank, analysts now expect only slightly higher profits from US companies. This leaves sufficient room for positive surprises and thus for rising prices. /la/niw/he/zb

--- By Lutz Alexander, dpa-AFX ---