The Paris Bourse (-0.7 to -0.8%) is gradually falling back towards its 'lows of the day' (around 7.920Pts), in insignificant volumes (1.7 billion euros), with the CAC40 still penalized by Stellantis (-4%), TotalEnergies (-2%) and ST-Micro (-3.3%).
On the other hand, Teleperformance (up over 12%) and Worldline (up +10%) are on the rise.
US markets continued to rise, with +0.4% on the Dow Jones and S&P500, and +0.7% on the Nasdaq, wiping out the previous day's slight losses of -0.3%.

Jerome Powell cast doubt on the timing of his next rate cuts (consensus seems to be for the November meeting, or the one in mid-December).

Wall Street tried to reassure itself with a 'little phrase' from Jerome Powell affirming that the FED's next move will 'probably' not be a rate hike.... but investors need to take on board that the outlook has changed in 4 months, with expectations of 7 rate cuts revised down to one easing (150Pts away from the initial scenario).

Indeed, the Fed notes that growth remains 'solid', job creation and consumption remain robust, while inflation has stopped falling for several months now.

The inflation problem may not be easy to solve if the economy continues to perform well", admit Commerzbank analysts.

For the German bank, no interest rate cut is therefore to be expected before December.

Uncertainty surrounding the monetary easing agenda is keeping US bond yields stuck at yesterday's levels, i.e. before the 8 p.m. press release, with the '10-yr' broadly unchanged at 4.625% (-1Pt), the '2-yr' easing a little from 5.02 to 4.95% and the '30-yr' stuck at 4.765% (having rallied +2.5Pts after US figures released at 2.30 p.m.).
A final figure - ahead of tomorrow's 'NFP' at 2.30 p.m. - came out mid-afternoon, and it looks 'robust': US industrial orders rose by a further 1.6% in March 2024, according to the Commerce Department (following a 1.2% rise in February).

Meanwhile, US industrial shipments rose by 0.3% in March compared with the previous month. With inventories virtually unchanged, the inventory-to-delivery ratio remained unchanged at 1.47 month-on-month.

Non-farm productivity rose at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1 2024, according to the Labor Department's first estimate, driven by a 1.3% rise in total output and a 1% increase in hours worked.

Given this weak rise in productivity, but also a 5% increase in hourly wages, non-agricultural unit labor costs in the United States climbed by 4.7% for the first three months of this year... which is what is upsetting the markets.

The US trade deficit remained virtually unchanged at $69.4 billion in March, compared with the previous month's $69.5 billion (which was revised from an initial estimate of $68.9 billion), according to the Commerce Department.

This 0.1% month-on-month decline in the deficit is the result of a 1.6% drop in US imports of goods and services, to $327 billion, and a 2% contraction in exports, to $257.6 billion.
Weekly jobless claims stagnate once again at 208,000 (and that's 2 months 'standing still').

On the European statistics front, the HCOB PMI index for eurozone manufacturing settled below the 50 mark of no change between contraction and growth for the 22nd consecutive month, signalling a further deterioration in economic conditions in April.
Having fallen from 46.1 in March to 45.7, it also highlights a slight acceleration in the contraction of the eurozone manufacturing sector compared with the previous month, with strong divergences in trends at national level.

In France, the PMI manufacturing index fell from 46.2 in March to 45.3 in April, marking the fifteenth consecutive deterioration in the sector's economic situation, with the contraction showing its most sustained pace since January.
Our OATs and Bunds eased symbolically by -2.5Pts to 3.05% and 2.556% respectively, Italian BTPs by -3Pts to 3.88%.
The euro is down -0.3% against the dollar at 1.0680 (24-hour sliding range), while the yen is holding on to yesterday's gains (BoJ intervention?) at $154.5.

Lastly, in the news for French companies, Worldline reports first-quarter 2024 sales of just under 1.1 billion euros, representing organic growth of 2.5%, with a 3.9% increase in merchant services more than offsetting a 1.4% decline in financial services.

Technip Energies reported EPS for the first three months of 2024 (adjusted) up 11% to 0.50 euros, but a recurring EBIT margin down 0.3 points to 7.3% on sales up 8% to 1.52 billion euros.

For the first three months of the year, ArcelorMittal posted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda) - the indicator most closely followed by investors - of $1.96 billion, up 34% on the previous quarter.

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